Grains were lower overnight with wheat leading to the downside and soybeans only off 1 cent from yesterday’s settlement. In outside markets, crude oil and equity futures posted modest gains.
Argentina will harvest an estimated 23.8 MMT of corn in the 2015-16 season, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday, hiking its forecast from a previous estimate of 20.2 MMT. This is quite lower than USDA’s estimate on Tuesday at 25.6 MMT. The exchange maintained its estimates for 2015-16 soy and wheat harvests of 55 million and 9.6 MMT, respectively. USDA pegs Argentina’s bean crop at 57 and wheat at 10.5.
Overnight, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture bought a total of 140,729 MT of food quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed late on Thursday.
The export sales were in-line with expectations for wheat and soybeans, and slightly above expectations for corn. However, all three grains are lagging behind last year’s pace to achieve USDA’s export forecast for the year. The worst is corn where YTD sales are 25% below the same period last year, and even with USDA’s newly lowered forecast for US corn exports on Tuesday to 1,700 MB this would imply only a 9% drop in exports between last year and this year. Based on corn’s current pace, export sales could end up at 1,400 MB. For wheat, likewise export sales YTD are lagging behind last year’s mark by 15% while USDA only expects a 6$ drop. In soybeans, the disparity is better with an 11% drop YTD in actual sales and USDA projecting a 8% decline.
USDA WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
Actual Expected
Corn 669 400-650
Soybeans 1,127 900-1,300
Wheat 274 (+16NC) 150-350
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