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November 26, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

USDA Crop Progress Report

Soy close to completion; corn harvest at 84%

USDA’s Crop Progress Report: Soy Close to Completion

The USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report showed that the corn harvest at 84% complete and soybean harvest at 94% complete. 

At 84%, the US harvest pace is behind the 5-year average of 96%.  

The harvest pace in Wisconsin at 57%, South Dakota at 68% and North Dakota at 30% continue to materially lag behind the historical averages.

The harvest pace in Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio continues to be a concern at FBN.

At 94% complete the soybean harvest pace is just behind the 5 year average of 97%.  

Material harvest progress was made in Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota.  

National wheat condition scores shows a weakening of HRW producing states and a strengthening in SRW states.

This was the final winter wheat condition scores for the fall.           

FBN’s Take On What It Means: We believe that the crop progress report illustrated what the market already knows: a slow corn harvest and a soybean harvest that is about “to cross the finish line.”  With winter weather forecasted in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska and parts of South Dakota we remain concerned about the corn and soybean progress pace in those states and the impact on supplies.                  

USDA Clarified Beef/Pork Export Sales Reporting Rules

On Nov. 25th, the USDA clarified rules that commodity exporters must disclose and report sales of hog and cattle carcasses not just primals or cuts.    

The shift in reporting policy is to provide greater clarity into a surge of Chinese pork buying.

Traditionally, US packers export boxes of whole muscle “primals” or specific “cuts”.   Rarely do whole carcasses get exported.  

China's pork imports have nearly doubled this year as African swine fever (ASF) has decimated its herd. 

The last time that the US exported hog carcasses to China was 2011 when the county’s hog herd suffered large mortality rates due to PRRS.

FBN’s Take On What It Means:  We believe that further clarification of the USDA’s export rules to include the reporting of whole carcasses is a positive for the US farmer.  Because packers normally process primals or cuts, we believe that exporting carcasses underscores the severity of the problem in China.       

 

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