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October 27, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

U.S. Crop Progress

Corn harvest came in at 72% complete, up from the average at 56%

U.S. Crop Progress Comments for the Week Ending October 25  

  • Corn harvest came in at 72% complete, up from the average at 56% and up 12 points from the previous week. Last year, harvest was only 38% done.
  • Soybean harvest was 83% complete. That was up marginally from last week’s 75% but remains ahead of the average pace.
  • Cotton harvest was in line with the average at 42% complete.
  • Sorghum harvest was 74% complete, well ahead of the 61% average.
  • Winter wheat plantings came in at 85%, slightly ahead of the 80% average.
  • Winter wheat emergence was 62% versus the 60% average.
  • Winter wheat conditions came in at 41% good to excellent.
  • That was versus last year at 56% and was below trade expectations.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The lower-than-expected winter wheat conditions were enough to lift the markets overnight.  But FBN cautions producers that low conditions now do not translate into poor yields in the spring or even low conditions in the spring.  Moisture accumulations were realized in the past 24 hours which will help improve the current dry situation across much of the Southern Plains.  Harvest season is wrapping up but the strong demand is keeping support in the cash market. 

Turkey Eliminates Tariffs on Wheat, Barley, Corn

  • Through December, Turkey has eliminated its import tariffs on key grains.
  • Previously, the import tariff on wheat was at 45%, barley was at 35%, and corn was at 25%; now those are all set at zero.
  • Tariffs are set to go back to their original values on January 1.
  • The government cited rising prices for commodities and the depreciation of the country’s currency as to the reasons for the tariff cuts.
  • Turkey’s domestic prices have risen about 20% since the harvest season started and are up about 40% versus last year.
  • The government has had a difficult time boosting its emergency stocks.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The good news is that this is another country who needs to import grains. That is a positive from a price perspective. However, the U.S. has not shipped wheat, corn, or barley to Turkey in several years. The most recent shipment of wheat to Turkey was in March 2013. For corn, the most recent shipment was in April 2014 but the volume was negligible.

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