Headlines
Day 2 Wheat tour yield estimates are smallest since 2015. Ethanol production increases this week. S. Brazil weather expected to stay dry through the week. Strong corn export sales with wheat and soybeans meeting expectations.
Day 2 Wheat Tour
The second day of the Wheat Quality Council focused on fields in western, central and southern areas of Kansas. The yield estimate from day 2 was 35.2 bpa which was down sharply from 46.9 bpa estimated LY and the smallest since 2015. Scouts traveled into parts of Oklahoma as well and noted a higher percentage of fields being grazed by cattle. Scouts will travel central and eastern Kansas today and release their final yield estimate this afternoon.
Ethanol Production Jumps
Ethanol production jumped to 1.032 million bpd, up from 985k bpd LW. TW ethanol production was 4.7% above the same week LY. Ethanol stocks increased to 930 million gallons, up from 911 million gallons LW. This weeks stocks are 45 million gallons below LY at this time.
Brazil Weather
Rains met expectations in northwestern Mato Grosso and southeastern Rio Grande do Sul yesterday. Forecast is mostly unchanged with dryness through next week increasing stress on the crop during a critical stage of growth. Minor relief may arrive in 11-15 day forecast but confidence is low.
Trade Delegation Goes to China
Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin arrived in China to talk tariffs. Talk results could provide additional Ag market volatility if progress cannot be made. U.S. tariffs could go into effect in June after the 60-day consultation period. A breakthrough deal is viewed by most as highly unlikely.
Weekly Export Sales
Wheat and soybeans met expectations within the range of analyst estimates. Corn sales beat expectations and were up 46 percent from last week with the largest sales to Mexico, Columbia and South Korea. Soybean sales were primarily to Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Argentina. Reductions were primarily reported from China (-133,700 MT).
|
Actual |
Estimated |
Last Week |
|
|
Wheat-OC |
234 |
0-300 |
297.2 |
|
Wheat-NC |
210 |
100-300 |
280.7 |
|
Corn-OC |
1,019 |
700-1,000 |
697.1 |
|
Corn-NC |
49 |
-50-150 |
-76.6 |
|
Soybeans-OC |
416 | 300-600 |
371.3 |
|
Soybeans-NC |
469 |
150-350 |
166.5 |
|
Soymeal-OC |
246 |
150-350 |
223.7 |
|
Soymeal-NC |
61 |
40.8 |
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