Grain futures posted positive gains this week with beans up 23 and corn up 6, but in the cash market overall trends in the basis were mostly flat. Corn managed a 1-cent improvement on the week, while soybeans were unchanged on average across the country.
For corn, export demand and ethanol use continue to be strong demand stimuli. Friday’s export sales report showed over 900,000 MT of old-crop sales, surpassing analyst expectations of 650-900,000 MT. Physical exports of only 696,000 MT meant that outstanding sales, or the amount of grain left to be shipped, continuing to grow to 17.4 MMT. River terminals appear to be bidding more aggressively for March delivery versus spot, with March premiums fetching 7 to 9 cents over most spot deliveries. This likely will help improve basis in the coming weeks. For ethanol, weekly production grew by 3,000 barrels per day and continues to eclipse last year’s pace. Year-to-date production is up 5.7 percent from the same period last year, while USDA is only looking for a 2.3 percent increase in corn use for ethanol.
In soybeans, monthly crush numbers for January came in at 162.675 million bushels, up from last year’s January figure of 156.943 million bushels and just over expectations of 162.673 million bushels. For the week, soybean plants were lower by a penny per bushel on basis with losses most apparent in SD, MN & IA. On the export front, river terminals were up half a penny per bushel on average although there was a mix of buyers that were up and others that were down on the week. Export business continues to be stronger than expected as weekly sales of 505,600 MT were at the high end of analyst expectations on the week.
