Weekly Cash Comments
Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 11/17/2017
Basis levels were bolstered this week by improving export basis and a surge in end-user bidding out of harvest lows. On the week, corn was up 2 cents while soybeans climbed 4 cents.
Soybeans big lift came from a completing harvest and a sharp climb in export basis with the PNW up 22 and the Gulf basis up 14 on the week. This helped push river terminals to an 8-cent advance on the week. On the Upper Mississippi the shipping season winds down as winter freeze stops barge traffic and basis levels are starting to soften. For crush plants, they were up a solid 3-cent on the week but gains were not universal as some plants continue to hold steady.
For corn, export locations were more subdued but river terminals still managed to climb 4 cents on the week. Ethanol plants as a group were also up 4 on the week but gains were clearly less prominent in the Upper Midwest where fresh supplies continue to flow into the pipeline.
Carry in the futures market continues to widen on the market slump as ample supplies force wide spreads to encourage storage. For corn, the Dec-Jul spread stands at 29-cents, well above the 20-year average of 23 cents for this time of year. Meanwhile soybeans face an exceptionally large carry as Jan-Jul holds at 28-cents a 4x multiple of the 7-cent norm for this time of year.
The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)