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July 31, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

USDA’s June Fats & Oils Report Set for Thursday

U.S. June soybean crush to come in near 159.4M bushels in upcoming report

Credit: United Soybean Board

USDA’s June Fats and Oils Report set for Thursday

The trade looks for U.S. June soybean crush to come in near 159.4 million bushels in the upcoming report, based on a Reuters poll.

Trade estimates range from 158.6 million bushels to 161 million.

May crush was at 165.3 million bushels with June 2018 at 169.6 million; the trade is looking for a modest slowdown from May.

If June crush is near 159 million bushels, that would be the smallest monthly total since September 2017.

NOPA reported a June crush total at 148.8 million bushels, a 21-month low.

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer:  At FBN, we believe the demand side of the U.S. soybean balance sheet has suffered in 2018/19 on disappointing exports and reductions in crush expectations late in the crop year.  While demand side elements are overall disappointing, supply risks still are in the market given this year’s growing season.

 

Export Sales Announcement

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 104,500 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 500 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year and 104,000 metric tons for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

Strategie Grains Boosts French Wheat Production Forecast

The agency raised its wheat production forecast for the French soft wheat crop to 39 million tonnes.

Strategie Grains forecast yields at 7.8 tonnes per hectare, near the record at 7.9 tonnes.

France is the EU’s largest wheat producer with the EU being the world’s second largest exporter.

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer: At FBN, we have been cautious about the U.S. export program given the increase expected for global production.  A larger EU (French) crop would compete with U.S. export prospects. However, Russia’s crop likely will be trimmed more than a potential raise for the EU. The risk for U.S. exports now is that the program could be larger. Futures are expected to strengthen later in the crop year. 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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