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March 08, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

USDA Report Today

A snoozer report will do little to change the oversupply story plaguing the markets right now

USDA Report Today: No Changes Likely

USDA will release their monthly WASDE report today at 11:00 PM CDT but it is unlikely to have much change in carry-out figures. According to a poll of analysts from Thomson Reuters, traders don’t expect any changes in the carry-out figures.

Weekly EIA ethanol data suggests corn use for ethanol could be a bit high in USDA’s latest forecast by 50 MB, so it is possible that USDA ratchets back that figure by 25 MB. For soybeans, monthly crush figures are trending higher than USDA so far in the marketing year by about 100 MB, so USDA could be inclined to bring that estimate up as well.

Soy trade numbers are woefully behind pace, but given the US-China trade deal still on the table and expected to be inked later this month, it seems unlikely USDA economists will revise the soy export number.

What it means for U.S. Farmers: A snoozer report will do little to change the oversupply story plaguing the markets right now. The only good news going into this report is its Friday, which could provide some short covering ahead of the weekend as traders book profits on the recent wheat and corn price slide.

Export Sales Announcement

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 664,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

China Feb Soy Imports Fall, Signal Need for More Beans without Canola

China's soybean imports in February fell to their lowest monthly level in four years, according to customs data. The world's top buyer of soybeans brought in 4.46 MMT which is off 17% from the same month last year and the lowest monthly figure in 4 years.

While the trade war is impacting trade, it also seems like that a limited appetite from the hog sector is constraining purchase. African Swine Fever is acting as a demand deterrent with farmers culling the herd.

However, some optimism was offered up on Friday when China’s Ag Minister propped up their soy import projections to 85 MMT for the year vs 83.6 previously. This is in response to a suspension of canola imports from Canada.

What it means for U.S. Farmers: Canada’s loss is the U.S’s gain. But canola imports pale in comparison to soy, so it is a small but positive bump to soy usage.  


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