In the overnight session corn soybeans and wheat are all trading slightly lower with corn down 1 ½ cents, soybeans down 1 ¼ cents and wheat down 3 ¼ cents. The U.S. Dollar index and crude oil are both trading higher this morning. Today the market will be positioning for the release of the February 10th USDA Supply and Demand report.
The average analyst guess anticipates an increase in corn and wheat ending stocks. In a Reuters poll of 20 analysts, corn ending stocks was seen increasing two million bushels from the January forecast to 1.879 billion bushels. Wheat ending stocks were seen increasing two million bushels as well to 689 million bushels of carryout. Analysts are expecting a decline in soybean ending stocks by around 12 million bushels to 398 million bushels.
Traders will be focusing on any South American revisions to corn and soybean forecasts as harvest begins to pick up pace in the southern hemisphere. Analysts are expecting both Argentina corn and soybean production to increase by a half million metric tons, while Brazil production is expected to decline. The average analyst guess expects Brazilian soybean production to shed .8 million metric tons from the January forecast due to the dry conditions in the northern part of the growing region. Brazil corn production is also expected to decline .5 MMT to 74.56 million metric tons.
Wheat prices bounced from a low last Monday of $4.92 as a result of a strong macro move in the outside market on Tuesday and talks that Egypt might announce a tender for U.S. wheat as a way to take advantage of a special $100 million dollar credit GASC has at its disposal. Price action on Friday was volatile with some traders getting nervous with no signs of Egyptian buying interest.
