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August 08, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 466

USDA: Corn Exports for 2017/2018 Could Be Second Highest Ever

Numbers are expected at 61 MMT due to reduced competition from South America and Ukraine

USDA: Corn Exports for 2017/2018 Could Be Second Highest Ever

U.S. to Implement Remaining $16 Billion Worth of Tariffs on China from First Round of Trade War

At the beginning of July, President Trump announced $50 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods. The first phase of implementation was $34 billion tariffs on a broad range of items and the remaining $16 billion were intended to target more specialized sectors approved by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. On Aug 23, the second leg of 25% tariffs will be applied to $16 billion worth of plastics, industrial chemicals, semiconductors and other electronics, and railroad equipment. President Trump has also considered escalating the trade war with another round of tariffs at 25% on up to $300 billion worth of Chinese products.

China May Have to Import More Soybeans from U.S. Despite Trade War

Oil World, a German oilseed analytics firm, predicts that due to a poor crop in South America, China will find it necessary to import 15 MMT of soybeans from Oct 2018 through Mar 2019 as domestic supplies in China dwindle. China may also increase imports of bean meal from Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of meal. This would mean that US soybeans would be exported to Argentina to be crushed and then the soymeal sent on to China. Soybeans exports to China in 2017 alone were valued at $12.3 billion but have come to a standstill following the Trade War with the United States.

USDA Estimates Corn Exports for 2017/2018 Could Be Second Highest Ever

According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s July World Markets and Trade report, corn exports for the 2017/18 marketing year are expected at 61 MMT due to reduced competition from South America and Ukraine. The USDA FAS also forecasts corn exports for 2018/19 at 56.5 MMT, citing changes in the US export market due to trade tensions with China and NAFTA, as well as countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and South Africa expanding their own export programs. 61.8 MMT of corn exports in 1979/80 is the current record. Sept 30 marks the end of the crop marketing year.


 

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