February 04, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

French Wheat Exports At Record Pace

French labor strikes delayed exports for up to three weeks

French Wheat Exports At Record Pace

Soft wheat exports from French ports stayed at a six-year high in January despite intermittent stevedore and tug boat strikes.   

The French labor strikes delayed exports for up to three weeks.

About 1.33 million tonnes (MMT) of soft wheat were exported last month, the highest in January since 2014 when 1.66 MMT was exported.   

Soft wheat shipments were 10,000 tonnes less than the previous month, when loadings also set a six-year high for the month of December. 

French soft wheat is a substitute for US SRW.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: We believe that the aggressive pace of French wheat exports despite labor strife is impressive and is a negative for the US soft wheat export program. Because France had a bumper wheat crop, we believe that the overall pace of the French wheat export program is not a surprise.         

           

                                                                                               

USDA’s December Soybean Crush Data At A Robust Pace

The USDA oilseed crushings report is expected to show that 185.7 million bushels (MBU) of soybeans were processed in December.

The would be up from the 183.7 MBU bushels crushed in December 2018.

A poll from Thomson Reuters shows the USDA’s crush estimates from 185.0 MBU to 186.3 MBU.  The median estimate is 185.7 MBU.

If realized, the crush would be up sharply from the 174.6 million bushels crushed in November and the second-largest monthly total on record.

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a December 2019 crush of 174.812 MBU in January.  This was the second-largest crush on record.  

NOPA members represent 95% of the US crush capacity.  

FBN’s Take On What It Means: We believe that the market has already processed and priced the NOPA crush data for December that was released in early January.  At this point we believe that the USDA’s data has the ability to confirm that December’s soybean crush pace is healthy which can be a positive for the soybean basis and for the U.S. farmer.          

                                                 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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