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August 30, 2019 | Kevin McNew

Ukraine Wheat Exports & Production Estimates Raised for 2019/20

Growing volume of crops in this country can be threat to U.S. export programs

Argentina’s Leftist Presidential Candidate Open to Free Agricultural Trade

According to Reuters, Argentine presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez held talks with four major agriculture organizations at his campaign offices in Buenos Aires to discuss the future role of agriculture. 

The meeting between Fernandez and the agriculture groups emphasized that export restrictions, which once existed on farmers and on the nation’s agricultural trade, will not be a part of Fernandez’s policy.  

Between 2007 and 2015 former president Fernandez de Kirchner's government imposed strict export limits on corn, soybeans and wheat.      

The leftist candidate Fernandez is widely expected to win the Presidential election in October after gaining a large lead in the first national primary which was held in August.    

Currently Fernandez is polling ahead of the current business centric President Mauricio Macri.  

What It Means: At FBN we believe that Fernandez’s language to not impose export controls on Argentine agricultural commodities is positive for free trade but can be a negative for the U.S. famer.  Given that Argentina has expanded winter wheat acres and is widely expected to increase corn and soybean acres for the 2019/20 crop year, a lack of export controls combined with a weak Argentina peso has the ability to both challenge and pressure the U.S. export programs.

Ukraine Wheat Exports and Production Estimates Raised For 2019/20

Ukraine's agriculture ministry issued its first official forecast for the country’s 2019 wheat harvest, reporting that production could rise to 27.8 MMT from 24.6 MMT in 2018.

The ministry reported that the country’s overall grain harvest could rise to 71.1 MMT from 69.8 MMT.  

The USDA is using 29.0MMT for the 2019 wheat production.

Both the USDA’s and the Ukrainian government’s wheat estimates represent bumper crops and the largest on record.   

Ukraine is a leading producer and exporter of corn.  The 2019/20 corn harvested is expected to be a record 36.5MMT while corn exports are expected to be a record 30MMT.  

FBN’s Take on What It Means: At FBN we believe that the growing volume of wheat and corn crops in the Ukraine can be a threat to the U.S. export programs. We continue to monitor export prices between the U.S

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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