In the overnight session, the grains traded higher with corn up 3/4 of a cent, soybeans up 3 cents and wheat up 1 cent. Soybeans are trading just a few cents below the $8.90 which has held back four attempts to move higher since August 24th. After so many failed attempts, I would be surprised if this resistance level holds in the coming days. However, trade action will be mostly driven by the USDA Grain Stocks report which will be released out at 11 AM CST.
Expectations are for the quarterly grain stocks as of September first to show corn at 1.739 billion bushels which would be slightly above the September WASDE projection of 1.732 billion bushels. The average guess for soybeans is to have the quarterly grain stocks number show only 205 million bushels which would be a 5 million bushel decline from the September WASDE report. Wheat stocks are expected to be reported at 2.149 billion bushels which would be up substantially from last year when stocks were 1.907 billion bushels on September 1st.
On Wednesday the EU raised its SRW production estimates to 144.6 million metric tons, up sharply from the 140.6 million metric tons forecast last month. However the forecast for corn production declined to 58.4 million metric tons from 58.7 million metric tons reported last month.
Dryness in the FSU continues to cause concerns about germination headed into winter. Australia forecasts show no relief in sight dryness has gripped their landscape for the last month. Traders are concerned about the dryness in Australia as El Nino typically brings drought to the eastern part of the country.
