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August 11, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Markets Firm After Weaker Conditions Reported

Crop conditions mostly lower last week

Crop Conditions Mostly Lower Last Week

  • Corn crop conditions slipped to 71% good to excellent compared to 72% last week.
  • The corn crop is moving into later phases of the life cycle and is 59% in dough stage versus 52% average and 11% has dented versus 12% average. 
  • Soybean crop conditions were better than expected, up to 74% good to excellent from 73% last week.
  • Soybeans blooming is 92% complete compared to 89% average and 75% are setting pods, which is ahead of the 68% average. 
  • Spring wheat conditions fell to 69% good to excellent from 73% last week.
  • Spring wheat harvest made good progress on the week to 15% complete, but remains behind the 25% average.
  • Upland cotton crop conditions deteriorated to 42% good to excellent from 45% last week, and are well the 56% good to excellent rating last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The most important changes were in Iowa which decreased 4% in corn and 3% in beans due to dryness in the western third of the state. However, increases in Illinois conditions, given mild temperatures and normal rains, helped offset the declines. We’ll see how much damage yesterday’s wide spread, high winds caused in Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, and especially Iowa, which may cause conditions to suffer next week. A material impact on production is unlikely as needed rains and cooler temperatures probably offset the wind damage. 

Russian Wheat Crop Projections Raised 

  • IKAR increased its forecast for the wheat crop by 1.5 million tonnes to 81 million.  
  • It is the third increase in two weeks as yields are rising sharply as harvest progresses.
  • There is some risk going forward as Sovecon reports the conditions for the spring wheat crop there are the worst since 2012.
  • IKAR now projects Russia's 2020/21 wheat exports 37 million tonnes, up from 36 million previously.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Wheat prices have been under pressure from increased harvest outlooks for Russia. Increases in winter yields will help to offset losses expected in spring crops and reduced exports expected out of the EU. 

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