Grains found little relief overnight following yesterday’s steep slide in soybean prices. Overall the grain complex was mixed. In outside markets, crude oil tried to bounce off of it's $40 a barrel low while the US dollar fell to 6-week lows.
Crop conditions on Monday yet again came in unchanged with corn at 76% and beans at 72% good-to-excellent. Every week seems to bring a bearish surprise as traders look for a small down tick in crop conditions, but USDA conditions have held strong all season long. Adding to the bearish sentiment, on Monday FC Stone estimated yields for corn at an all-time high of 175 and beans 48.8 bpa with production of 4.05 bb and 15.15 bb respectively. This compares to the most recent USDA yields of 168.0 and 46.7 and production of 14.540 and 3.880.
Brazilian soybean, meal and corn exports are expected to fall to half the level seen last year in August, according to shipping line-ups at the ports, as merchants focus on selling corn on the local market and soy loses its competitive edge abroad. Conab forecast exports of 22 MMT, well below the record 30.2 MMT exported in the previous year. Brazil exported only 7.6 MMT of corn from January through June, according to private-sector data.
USDA Census Crush showed June soybean crush at 4.623 mmt or 154.1 mb which was in line with expectations. The avg. daily rate of crush was 5.137 mb which is down from 5.194 in May. Oil stocks were 2.048 bln lbs vs. 2.063 last month. USDA June corn use for fuel alcohol was 421.31 mb vs. 425.78 last month. Dry mill DDGs were 1.893 mmt vs. 1.845 last month.
Oil prices rebounded sharply on Tuesday after a slide below $40 a barrel triggered some bargain hunting, although analysts said worries about a global glut in the oil market could take prices to as low as $35 in the near term. Other factors — the recent uptrend seen in U.S. oil drilling activities, Libya’s expected return to the oil exporting markets, and the likely output increase by prominent Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members such as Iraq and Iran last month — are also sparking stronger risk-off sentiment across commodities.
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