Grains were modestly higher overnight with corn and soybeans posting tepid gains, while wheat was slightly lower. The US dollar continued to fall while crude oil was trying reverse yesterday’s steep losses.
After the close Monday, USDA’s crop progress report showed a big jump in corn plantings with 30% of the US crop planted, up from 13% last week and a 16% 5-yr average. The first reading for soybeans was 3% planted, slightly better than the 2% planted rate which is normal for this time of year. Winter wheat conditions improved 2% to reach 59% in good to excellent condition. Most of the improvement was in HRW states from TX to SD which saw ratings jump 3 to 4% on the week.
US Planting weather continues to show mostly favorable conditions. Most areas remained favorably dry for fieldwork, but the seeding slows in the central/southern Midwest and Delta through early next week. The best rain chances in the western Midwest will be tonight/tomorrow and this weekend, while the eastern Midwest/Delta pick up rain Wednesday/Thursday and Sunday/Monday. Another system will also favor the Delta and near the OH River next Tuesday/Wednesday. Locally 2 to 4”+ rainfall with each event will bring isolated flooding (main risks in southern Midwest/Delta), but notable wetness concerns are unlikely.
The European Union's crop monitoring service MARS on Tuesday raised its forecast for average winter cereals yields in this year's harvest as favorable weather in major producing countries helped crop development. MARS pegged the average soft wheat yield for the 2016 crop at 6.11 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), up from 5.96 t/ha estimated last month. The new forecast was now 2.7 percent lower than last year but 4.9 percent above the five-year average. "In general, the current prospects for EU-28 yields are above the five-year average, and the forecast for total cereals has increased compared to our last bulletin, reflecting the generally good growth conditions."
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