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Soybeans Higher on Worries about Declining Crop Prospects

Grains Higher in the Overnight Session

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Headlines

  • Argentina remains dry
  • Brazil fieldwork continues to be slowed by rains
  • May Soybeans breaks through highs set on July 12th 2017.
  • China customs data shows U.S. loses market share to Brazil in January
  • KCBT wheat finds support on 20 day moving average.
  • Exporters sell 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during 2017/2018 marketing year.
  • Exporters sell 125,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year. -USDA

Argentina

  • Dry weather was persistent over the weekend in the majority of the growing regions. However, some precipitation fell in northeastern La Pampa, Western Cordoba and northwest Santiago del Estero.
  • The weather forecast expects some erratic and light precipitation from Tuesday through Sunday. Rains are not expected to provide the precipitation needed to stop crop stress.
  • Temperatures should stay mild with highs of 80’s and 90’s this week.
  • Longer term forecast is for more precipitation in March, but may be too late to turn around production.

Brazil

  • Recent rain continues to delay soybean harvest and second crop corn planting.
  • Temperatures remain seasonable over the next couple weeks.
  • Rains and scattered showers are expected to continue over the next week.

Commitments of Traders

  • Managed money (MM) is no longer net short in the corn and soybean market.
  • MM net corn position is 18,674 from -10,615 last week.
  • MM net soybean position is 99,111 from 56,242 last week.
  • MM net Chicago wheat position is -67,039 from -56,830 last week.
  • MM net KCBT wheat position is 13,141 down from 14,726 last week.

Soybean Exports to China

  • China soybean imports from the U.S. in Jan fell 14 percent from last year.
  • China soybean imports from Brazil in Jan increased dramatically to 2.07 MMT.
  • Customs data showed China imported 5.82 MMT of US soybeans which accounted for 67 percent of all soybean imports in Jan. Last year U.S. soybeans accounted for 88.5 percent of soybean imports during January.
  • Brazil’s large soybean crop last year and preferred protein levels seems to be the main cause of the move.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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