Soybeans gapped higher overnight and were poised to go into the break with a 10-cent advance. Corn and wheat were also higher, extending gains from the end of last week.
On Friday, private analyst Informa put out crop forecasts generally lower than other analysts. For corn, they peg yield at 169.8 bushels/acre and production at 14.7 billion bushels while soybeans are projected to be 47.7 bushels/acre with a 3.96 billion bushel crop. Some talk has been circulating about potential issues with the corn crop. U of IL agronomists point to tip-back problems in some test plots suggesting the crop was under stress during the fill stage, even though it looks very green. Indeed, comparing Iowa yields in years of record production shows that high temperatures in June are generally in the low 80s. This year was the hottest June in 80 years which could limit the ability of the crop to hit a record yield this year.
Iowa Record Corn Yield Years and Average June High Temperatures
Year Avg Jun High Temp Yield
1986 83.3 135
1992 81.9 147
1994 82.2 152
2002 84.3 163
2004 78.0 181
2015 81.9 192
2016 88.1 ??
In the Eastern Corn Belt of OH & IN, a crop tour by Thomson Reuters found some drought stress in the late-planted crops there, but suggested the corn crops could still see respectable yields if weather is favorable in the later part of the season. Even so, it seems unlikely these areas will hit record yields.
Ohio soybeans were in much tougher shape than those in Indiana. Signposts of stress were very apparent on these soybeans, including many aborted flowers (meaning that pods will not form) and exposed leaves turned inward away from the sun even early in the day. Plants with aborted flowers still have the chance to produce new flowers, but it would be difficult to do without sufficient moisture. And once the pods are formed, the weather is instrumental in determining the size of the bean within.
But soybeans could be in luck because unlike corn, soybeans can often make do with just one or two good rainfalls in August, even if the temperatures are warmer. Current weather models suggest improved rainfall chances in the 7-14 day period.
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