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June 03, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Soybeans Firmer as Potential for Chinese Purchases Continues to be the Focus

Global corn exports for May were 12.2 million tonnes

Ukraine’s 2020 Grain Harvest Forecast Raised

  • Ukrainian ProAgro revised up its forecast for the country's 2020 grain harvest to 74.4 million tonnes from the previous outlook of 72.5 million.
  • The consultant raised its forecasts for Ukrainian wheat harvest to 26.6 million tonnes from 25.4 million. 
  • Expected corn production was increased to 37.6 million tonnes from 37.3 million tonnes last month.
  • Rains across Ukraine in May were given as the main reason for the increase in grain production forecasts.
  • FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: ProAgro’s forecasts contrast with those from the Economy Ministry which recently reported the grain harvest could fall to between 65 and 68 million tonnes this year due to poor weather and significant damage to winter grain crops. Recent rains in the region have been timely, but more will be needed in June to prevent further stress to crops. Increased corn production could lead to more exports to compete with the US. 

World Corn Shipments Steady In May

  • Global corn exports for May were 12.2 million tonnes, compared to 12.3 million last month and 13 million last year.
  • The US accounted for the largest share of exports at 44% with Argentina at 31% and Ukraine at 20%.
  • Brazil’s exports have lagged this year.  In May, Brazil’s corn exports were at 30,000 tonnes compared with 65,000 in April and 475,000 in May 2019.
  • The shipping lineup in Brazil has started to rise, increasing to 754,000 tonnes last week, but is still behind the 3.2 million tonnes seen last year. 
  • FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: First crop corn in southern Brazil has been affected by adverse weather conditions, leading to higher domestic prices. Ukraine origin corn is not competitively priced until after the next harvest, which leaves Argentina as the main competition to the US on the world export market. Low corn prices in the US have led to increased export activity, and this is needed to continue to reach USDA forecasts.   

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