Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans advancing, and corn and wheat declining. In outside markets, crude oil got above $50 a barrel for the first time since May 26 while the US Dollar was mostly steady.
Monday after the close, USDA reported the US corn crop at 75% good-to-excellent, up from 72% last week’s report and 74% last year. In the first report of the season for soybeans, the crop condition was rated at 72% good-to-excellent, higher than last year at this time when the score was 69%. Wheat conditions slipped this week, as winter wheat fell to 62% from 63% last week, and spring wheat was unchanged on the week at 79% good to excellent. US winter wheat harvest is 2% completed.
US weather shows limited thundershowers in the northern/eastern Midwest from late Wednesday through the rest of the week, favoring northern Illinois, northern/eastern Indiana, and southwest Ohio. Heat builds late in the week in the Midwest/South, peaking Friday/Saturday and then retracting to the southwest corner of the Midwest and Delta by Sunday/Monday before moderating further. Highs will rise into the 90s, with the best shot at mid 90s in Nebraska/Kansas/Missouri/South Dakota/western Minnesota/southwest Illinois/Deep South.
The best chance for rain arrives next Monday to Wednesday and favors the northern Midwest and Delta with welcome moisture for corn/soy growth. Showers also favor the northern Midwest in the 11 to 15 day but are more limited, with parts of Missouri/southern Illinois/southern Indiana/Kentucky at most risk to be driest through the next two weeks. While both models do hint at some moderation just beyond the period, the 16 to 30 day guidance shows better agreement to the warmer side for the Midwest, with slipping moisture supplies most likely in the southeast 1/2 of the belt. Forecast confidence does remain very low given relatively poor recent 16 to 30 day model performance, but possible corn risks are elevated compared to yesterday heading into early July.
The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)
