March 07, 2019 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 1138

Soy Plantings Prospective

Pressure in the international corn market continues to favor non-U.S. destinations for corn buyers

Corn Buyers going to non-U.S. Sellers

Pressure in the international corn market continues to favor non-US destinations.  Yesterday there was a flurry of corn trades with South Korean feed makers but the origins were Brazil.

In the past month FOB values at international buyers have plunged relative to US values which has made it difficult for the US to compete at higher, inflated values. Yesterday saw international FOB corn values hold up while US values fell, making the US more competitive.

What it means for U.S. Farmers: The last month has seen stiff competitive pressure in the world market. Even with yesterday’s rally in world pricing, US values are generally trading at a 10-cent premium to Ukraine and a 30-cent premium to Brazil origin. These values are about 40 cents worse for the US than this time last year, making it a dog-fight for US corn export business in the coming months.

 

Export Sales

A respectable week for wheat and corn export sales but soybean sales were dismal with only 311,400 booked.

Soy Plantings in Perspective

FBN’s farmer poll on soy plantings is leading us to believe US soy acres will be lower than expected. Our poll of 5 million acres and over 1,500 farmers showed soy acres across the US were down 9% from last year.

If realized that would be an 8 million acre decline, well below USDA’s estimate at their Forum.

What it means for U.S. Farmers: This could make for interesting trade action at the end of the month when USDA gives their peg. We lean towards being bullish beans and bearish corn on that report.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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