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November 09, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

USDA Baseline Projections

Acreage shift to beans and more wheat acres are worth noting

USDA Baseline Projections

  • USDA released the 10-year baseline balance sheet projections, which are used for government budgeting purposes.
  • 2021 corn acreage was projected at 90 million acres with a yield of 180.5 bu/ac compared to 91 million acres and 178.4 bushels this year.
  • Bean acres were projected at 89 million and yield at 50.6 bu/ac versus the current 83.1 million and 51.9 bushels.
  • All wheat area was increased to 46.0 million acres from 44.3 million, but yield was reduced to 49.1 bu/ac from 49.7 bushels this year.
  • The October WASDE report served as the starting point for the baseline balance sheets.
  • USDA will be releasing 2021/22 balance sheet ideas again in late February at the annual Agricultural Outlook Forum.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The baseline report offers a first “peek” into USDA forecasts. Revisions will still be seen in tomorrow’s report, as well as with the release of the Annual Crop Production, quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings reports in January. The baseline in February is generally considered to be a more accurate look into USDA forecasts of the new crop situation, but neither report takes the place of the official monthly reports. However, the acreage shift to beans and more wheat acres are worth noting. 

China October Soy Imports Up Sharply

  • China's soybean imports surged 41% in October from a year ago.
  • Total imports of 8.69 million tonnes soybeans in October are up from 6.18 million tonnes last year.
  • Shipments were down from 9.8 million tonnes in September, as Brazilian supplies decreased. 
  • Imports of vegetable oils were 885,000 tonnes in October, down 3.9% from the previous month.
  • Crushers expect to switch to Brazilian beans again in February and March as harvest starts in South America. 

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Chinese soy imports were expected to grow as delayed Brazilian cargoes cleared customs and US shipments increased. China’s buying pace is expected to slow a little in the coming months, as crushers have booked a lot of Brazilian beans earlier and have already bought large quantities of US beans. The market will have an eye on the buying pace going forward along with the possibility China will want to renegotiate Phase 1 trade commitments. 

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