January 14, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

NOPA’s December Crush Estimated 171M Bushels

Analysts estimating US soybean processing rebounded last month

NOPA’s December Crush Estimated at 171 Million Bushels 

Analysts are estimating that the US soybean processing rebounded in December from a smaller than expected crush rate in November.  

Analysts are estimating that NOPA members crushed 171.664 MBU of soybeans in December.  

If realized, the total would be just below the monthly record set in 2018.  

NOPA members crush approximately 95% of soybeans processed in the US.

The monthly NOPA report will be released on Wednesday, January 15.

Soyoil supplies at the end of December are estimated to rise to 1.507 billion pounds.  

Soybean oil stocks were 1.448 billion at the end of November 2019 and 1.498 billion at the end of December 2018.  

FBN’s Take On What It Means: At FBN, we believe that the estimated NOPA crush figure of 1.71 MBU represents a strong pace but is somewhat deceiving. Given that the US crush capacity expanded in 2019, we believe that tight local soybean supplies and increasing soybean basis have suppressed replacement crush margins and may be forcing the US crusher to run at a reduced pace when compared to the levels of the 2018/19 crop year.   


Russian Ag Ministry to Set Export Quotas For 2020

Russia's agriculture ministry plans to set a quota for grain exports in the first half of 2020.

While the details are thin, early estimates have the quota close to 20 million tonnes (MMT) of grain.  

The quotas would be in place from January 1-June 30, 2020

Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat.  The country also exports barley, corn and other coarse grains. 

The USDA reduced Russian wheat exports in the January WASDE report but estimates that coarse grain exports for the 19/20 crop year will be at a record level.       

FBN’s Take On What It Means: At FBN, we believe that if  Russian export quotas impact wheat exports this can be a positive for the U.S. wheat producer.  We believe that the US hard red winter wheat producer stands to gain the most from any reduced Russian export volumes.  U.S. hard wheat is both a direct competitor of Russian wheat in the global export market and a natural substitute. If lost Russian export volume shifts back to the U.S., we believe that HRW stocks could fall which can be supportive cash and futures prices.                                                                                                   

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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