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July 21, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Crop Conditions Reported Better Than Expected

While there are still pockets of concern, crops came through last week’s hot spell mostly in decent shape

Crop Conditions Better Than Expected 

  • Crop ratings for corn were steady at 69% good to excellent, and 59% of the crop has reached the silking stage compared to 54% average.
  • Soybean conditions improved to 69% good to excellent from 68% last week after a large jump in the Illinois rating.
  • Blooming is 64% complete, which is higher than the 57% average and 25% are setting pods, which is also ahead of 21% on average.
  • The overall spring wheat rating was unchanged from last week at 68% good to excellent. 
  • Winter wheat harvest was 74% complete, just slightly behind the 75% average.
  • Upland cotton was in 47% good to excellent condition, which was up from 44% last week, but remains behind the 60% seen last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: While there are still pockets of concern, crops came through last week’s hot spell mostly in decent shape. Further rains, especially for northwestern Iowa, northeastern Indiana and Ohio, are important for continued crop development as temperatures are forecast to heat up again into the end of this week. 

Brazilian Crop Forecast 

  • Safras & Mercado projects next year’s Brazilian soybean planted area rising by 1.8% to 93.4 million acres.
  • The consultants increased forecast production to 131.7 million tonnes from their estimate of this year’s crop of 125.0 million tonnes.
  • Safras’ estimates are now in line with the USDA's current forecast of next year’s crop at 131.0 million tonnes and this year’s crop at 126.0 million. 
  • The firm projects next year’s total corn area to increase 1% to 48.6 million acres.
  • Corn production is forecast at a new record of 116.0 million tonnes compared to 107.3 million this year.
  • Their corn production forecasts are significantly above the USDA projection of this year’s crop at 101.0 million tonnes and next year’s at 107.0 million.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Planted area in Brazil for both beans and corn are expected to grow at least at trend rates, which combined with average yields have the potential to produce record crops. Barring a significant change in economics or adverse weather, production from South America is expected to add to world ending stocks and weigh on global prices into next year. 

 

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