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September 16, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Reuters Poll on Brazil Soybean Crop

Brazil is expected to remain world’s top soybean exporter

Reuters Poll Shows Brazil Soybean Crop at 122.6 Million Tonnes  

The country is in early planting stages thus the production outlook can change drastically in the next few months.

The market looks for Brazil to boost planted area, year over year, but for the growth to be smaller than in recent years.

USDA’s September forecast for Brazil’s production was at 123 million tonnes.

Both of these forecasts are above Brazil’s harvest last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: While planting season is in its early stages, Brazil is expected to remain the world’s top soybean exporter. Brazil’s harvest size will be reflected in futures prices with weather in the exporting country key in the coming months. Absent trade improvements between the U.S. and China, Brazil will retain its majority share of China’s imports.   


China’s Reports August Pig Herd Down 38.7% Compared with Last Year  

African swine fever continues to spread throughout the country.

The Ministry of Agriculture reported that the disease is in every province.

The sow herd reportedly is down 37.4 percent compared with a year ago.

This has contributed to the rise of pork prices, which are up 78 percent from a year ago.

Other protein sources also have seen increases in price with chicken up 21 percent from last year, beef up 17 percent, and eggs up 13 percent.

China plans to continue to release frozen pork from reserves to help stabilize prices.

FBN’s Take On What It Means:  The African swine fever problem is not expected to diminish quickly.  However, the ongoing trade war is keeping China’s interest in U.S. products limited.  China is working with several countries to improve trade with Brazil being a key partner.  From a soybean side, if other countries are increasing pork production to help China offset losses, there could be improved export opportunities for the U.S.  China and the U.S. are scheduled to meet in October to discuss the ongoing trade war.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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