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August 08, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Reuters August WASDE Poll

Corn acres falling, soybean acres rising

Reuters August WASDE Poll: Corn Acres Falling, Soybeans Acres Rising

Reuters released their poll of surveyed analysts ahead of the USDA’s August WASDE, to be released on Monday, August 12, and it shows a decline in planted and harvested corn acres and a rise in soybean acres.  

Corn:  The average estimate for planted acres: 88 million acres, -3.1 MA from the July WASDE.  Harvested acres: 80.0MA, -3.4 MA from July, Yield: 164.9 BPA, -1.1 BPA from July. Ending Stocks: 1.6 billion bushels -400 million bushes from July.   

Soy:  The average estimate for planted acres: 81 million acres, +1 MA from the July WASDE. Harvested acres: 79.9 MA, +.6 MA from July. Yield: 47.6 BPA, -.9 BPA from July.  Ending Stocks: 821 million bushels +26 million bushels from July.   

Wheat: 2019/20 ending stocks: Unchanged from July at 1 billion bushels.      

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer: At FBN, we believe that the range of estimates for corn planted, harvested acres and the yield number was large. We believe that given the range of estimates for 2019/20 corn production that the August WASDE can contain surprises. For soybeans the range of production related estimates was much narrower suggesting that a general directional consensus on the direction of the 2019/20 crop.

Chinese Soybean Imports Surge to 12-Month High During July 

Fueled by positive crush margins Chinese soybean imports from Argentina and Brazil rose +8% YoY during July.   

According to China’s General Administration of Customs, the country imported 8.64 million tonnes of soybeans in July, up from 8 million in the same month in 2018.  The figure during July is +33% from 6.51 million tonnes in June and the highest since August 2018. 

The positive crush margins were attributed to using soybeans from Argentina and Brazil as the 20% import tariff on U.S. soybean imports are not supportive Crush margins.  

According to Chinese customs data, China has purchased 46.91 million tonnes of soybeans in the first seven months of the year, -11% from the same period during 2018.  

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer:  At FBN we believe that the Chinese customs data showing large volumes of soybean imports from the southern hemisphere is negative for the U.S. farmer.  While the data is not a surprise to us, we believe that lost Chinese market share inside of the current political climate will present headwinds to the export program during the 2019/20 crop year.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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