August 12, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 362

Report Day Expectations

Two major USDA reports will be released at 11 AM CST. Here is what you need to know.

Report Day Expectations

Grains are sliding lower into this morning’s USDA report. Corn is down 2, soybeans off 4 and Chicago wheat is down 6 cents. Today’s USDA report will be released at 11:00 AM central time.

This morning’s USDA report will be the first survey based yield estimate of the year. Yield figures will be the focus of the report following a July that saw ample moisture in the eastern grain belt but a return of drought conditions in Nebraska and the Dakotas. Below are trade expectations for the report and our take on the numbers. 

 

2014/15 Corn

July Reported

August Expected

Production (MB) 

13,860

14,253  

Yield (BPA) 

165.3

170.098 

Ending Stocks (MB) 

1,801

2,005  

 

2014/15 Soybeans

July Reported

August Expected

Production (MB) 

3,800

3,823

Yield (MB) 

45.2

45.583

Ending Stocks (MB) 

415

414 

 

Crop conditions were released yesterday at 3 PM CST and showed that the soybean good-to-excellent rating had slipped by one percent to 70%. The expectation for both corn and soybeans was to leave conditions unchanged.  Corn’s good-to-excellent rating met those expectations by maintaining 73% of the crop rated good-to-excellent. Spring wheat conditions were also left unchanged at 70% good-to-excellent. Spring wheat harvest has officially kicked off with 6% of the crop harvested about on pace with the five year average.  

China sold 23% of soybeans offered a state auction overnight. In total, 82,489 tonnes were sold compared to 69,243 in last week’s sale. This was a good signal for mainland Chinese demand, although it is important to note that most of the sales went to food companies who use non-GMO varieties exlusivle. Because of this, Chinese imports should not show a major impact from recent state auctions.

Please call our office if you have questions about speculative or hedge positions coming into the report. Our number is 877-472-4607and we are available between 8AM and 5PM central time.

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