July 03, 2019 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 32

Record Breaking Heatwave in Western Europe

Not expected to cause severe crop losses

File Photo

EU, Russian and Ukrainian Wheat Quality Not Impacted By Heat 

  • A record breaking heatwave in western Europe and high temperatures in Russia and the Ukraine may reduce harvest production estimates but the heat is not expected to cause the kind of severe crop losses seen during last year’s drought.
  • But, reaction on grain markets has been tempered by expectations that the heatwave will be short lived, good field conditions following recent rainfall, and the fact many winter crops have already neared the end of their growth.
  • The heat and dryness have the ability to impact yields but quality can improve.  
  • Early harvest results in Russia and the Ukraine have shown above average protein levels.  German wheat quality is also much higher despite the recent weather.    
  • Some agri-consultants have been reducing EU wheat production estimates but projections generally remain above 140 MMT and well up from last year's drought impacted harvest of 129 MMT. 
  • What It Means For The US Farmer:  At FBN we believe that higher protein wheat combined with minimal production cuts can be a negative for the U.S. wheat producer.  With Russian and EU production estimated at +8-10% higher than 2018 and the current strength of the U.S. dollar, we expect that U.S. wheat will remain uncompetitive in global export grids.                  

U.S. Judge Reduces $80 million Roundup Award 

  • On Tuesday, a U.S. federal judge in San Francisco is reducing an $80 million damage award against Bayer AG to $50 million or less in the case of Edwin Hardean who blamed his cancer on glyphosate-based weed killer Roundup.
  • Following a four-week trial, a federal jury awarded $5 million in compensatory and $75 million in punitive damages to Hardeman who was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in 2014.
  • Bayer, which bought Roundup maker Monsanto for $63 billion last year, says Roundup and its active ingredient glyphosate are safe for human use and not carcinogenic.
  • The company faces lawsuits by more than 13,400 plaintiffs nationwide. 
  • What It Means For The US Farmer:  At FBN we believe that Bayer’s Roundup cases in the U.S. system has a long road ahead of it.  As a reminder, glyphosate has been declared safe by other agriculture producing countries like Brazil as being non-carcinogenic.                                                   

                                   

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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