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June 23, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Crop Conditions Report Shows Mixed Results

Record high soybean ratings in some Western Corn Belt states could not offset sharp rating declines in the East

U.S. Crop Conditions Report Shows Mixed Results 

  • Corn crop conditions were 72% good to excellent, up slightly from 71% last week, and well above 56% last year (see Chart of the Day below).
  • Winter wheat conditions also ticked higher to 52% good to excellent compared to 50% last week, but remains below 61% last year.
  • Winter wheat harvest was seen at 29% complete vs 15% last week, and the 26% average.
  • Soybean crop conditions were slightly lower at 70% good to excellent from 72% last week, but are still above average for this point in the season.
  • Spring wheat conditions fell to 75% good to excellent from 81% last week, and are now on par with 75% last year.
  • Cotton crop conditions were 40% good to excellent, which is down from 43% last week and 50% last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Record high soybean ratings for this time of the year in some Western Corn Belt states could not offset the sharp rating declines in the East. Rains forecast for the Ohio Valley this week will be important as the outlook turns warmer and drier into July.

U.S. Officials Send Conflicting Trade Signals

  • White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told FOX News that the China trade deal was “over.”
  • He stated the action is taken as intelligence officials grow increasingly confident that the coronavirus pandemic originated in a Wuhan laboratory.
  • Later, President Trump tweeted that the China trade deal is fully intact, and expressed hope China will fulfill their obligations.
  • Navarro then told @WSJ his comment about China trade being "over" was not as it seemed, and he was trying to make a broader point about "trust."

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Even if the comments are not taken at face value, recent developments increase uncertainty around the China/US Phase 1 agreement. If tensions continue to escalate, it would be difficult to renegotiate a trade deal before the US election, and the return of a trade war would likely slow China’s purchasing to the minimum needed to get through to South America’s next harvest. Fortunately, beans continue to be loaded for export, and the US is the lowest FOB priced origin from this fall forward.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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