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August 20, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

ProFarmer Tour Underway

Below Average Yields and Pod Counts on Day 1

ProFarmer Tour Underway, Below Average Yields and Pod Counts on Day 1  

The tour got started Monday with the Eastern leg in Ohio and the Western leg in South Dakota.

For Ohio, corn yields were forecast at 154.4 BPA, which compares with last year at 179.6 BPA and the average at 164.4 BPA.

Similar with corn, soybean pod counts were below last year and the average for Ohio. Pod counts averaged 764 pods, down from last year at 1,248 pods and the average at 1,137 pods.

For South Dakota, corn yields were forecast at 154.1 BPA, down from last year at 178.0 BPA and shy of the average at 158.6 BPA.

Soybean pod counts were similar with this year averaging 833 pods, last year at 1,025 pods, and the average at 965 pods.

FBN’s Take on What It Means for the U.S. Farmer: The initial day of reports is not surprising to FBN. Expectations are for yields to be below last year given the late planting season and below-average conditions.

FBN currently is forecasting corn and soybean yields to fall shy of USDA’s August forecasts. As the tour progresses and if scouts continue to report well below average yields and pod counts, the markets could find some support.

Condition Declines Noted for Corn, Soybeans

USDA’s weekly report showed declining conditions for the corn and soybean crops.

Corn conditions slipped to 56% good-to-excellent, down one percentage point from last week and 68% a year ago.

Nebraska and the Dakotas are the Corn Belt states reporting above-average conditions with Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio having the largest deviations.

15% of the crop was dented, compared with the average at 30%.

Soybean conditions fell to 53% good-to-excellent, down one percentage point and from 65% last year.  

Nebraska is the sole Corn Belt state to report above-average conditions.

68% of the crop is setting pods, down from the 85% average.

Spring wheat was 16% harvested compared with the average at 49%.

FBN’s Take on What It Means for the U.S. Farmer: Conditions for corn and soybeans tend to decline as the crop year advances. Minor slips in conditions this late in the growing season are not unusual.

Weather for the coming days is forecast to be overall beneficial with rains expected for much of the Corn Belt.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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