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September 17, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

NOPA Soy Crush Exceeds Expectations

Proposed changes to RFS are positive overall to soybean industry

Export Sales Announcement

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 260,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year. 

NOPA Soy Crush Exceeds Expectations for August 

NOPA reported August soybean crushings at 168 million bushels.

The monthly total was the seventh largest on record, which was in line with July’s total, but was well above August 2018 at 159 million.

Monthly crush exceeded Reuters’ average trade expectations at 162 million bushels and was near the high end of expectations, which ranged from 158 million to 169 million.

Soybean oil stocks dropped to a 21-month low at 1.4 billion pounds, down from July at 1.5 billion and well below August 2018 at 1.6 billion.

Stocks came in near analyst expectations.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Crush margins remain positive for soy crushers, encouraging steady crushing. The proposed changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard are positive overall to the soybean industry.  In general, FBN believes this all will be positive for cash prices. 

African Swine Fever Found in South Korea 

The infection was found at a farm near the North Korea border, where the virus was confirmed in May.

The South Korean government has raised its animal disease alert to the highest level.

The country has 11.3 million pigs with plans to cull 4,000.

The nation put in place a 48-hour movement ban for all hogs and related livestock.

South Korea does not import live pigs or products from China.

South Korea does import pork from the US and Germany.

Pork is the country’s most popular meat.

This marks the ninth country in Asia to report the virus.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: If the disease continues to spread across Asia, this could be overall beneficial to U.S. pork producers, especially in countries where the U.S. already exports pork. In 2018, South Korea imported around 570,000 tonnes of pork with the U.S. having shipped around 181,000 tonnes.

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