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July 16, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 377

NOPA Crush Expected to be Record High

U.S. soybean stockpiles are projected at a record high

NOPA Crush Expected to be Record High

Brazil Expected to Plant Record Number of Soybean Acres Next Season

Increased Chinese demand for soybeans has raised ag consulting firm Safras & Mercados’s projected acreage number by 2.3%. They expect 88.9 million acres of soybeans to be planted for the 2018/19 growing season. The USDA’s Acreage report put US planted acres for beans at 89.6 million acres for this season. Volatile freight rates following a government mandated price floor for truckers may continue to complicate the Brazilian export program in the coming crop year.

U.S. Soybean Stockpiles Projected at Record High, Prices at 10-Year Low

Last week’s WASDE report from the USDA showed a projected 580 million bushel ending stocks number for new crop soybeans. If actualized, this would be the largest ending stocks total ever, surpassing the 574 million bushels from 2006/07.

The USDA cut bean exports by 250 million bushels, a consequence of the ongoing Trade War with China. During the Friday session, July soybeans traded as low as $8.38, a decade low, and were down 6% on the week.

NOPA June Crush Expected to Be Record High for Month, Report Release at 11 A.M. CST

Analysts expect the NOPA soybean crush numbers for June at 159.637 million bushels. This would be a 15.6% increase compare to June 2017. Soybean crush margins have remained very strong and processors continue to run hard, as May 2018 was also a record high for the month at 163.572 million bushels crushed. Soyoil stocks are also expected to draw down by 2.6% to 1.807 million lbs, which would be the lowest since January 2018.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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