December 07, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 354

Export Sales Up from Last Week Across the Board

Grains Trade Lower in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains traded lower with March corn down ¾ of a cent, January Soybeans down 7 ½ cents and March wheat down 1 cent and pushing into contract lows. The USDA WASDE report will be released on Tuesday the 12th next week.  

 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

Ethanol production jumped to an all time high this week to 1.108 million barrels per day, up from 1.066 million barrels per day last week. This weeks production is  8.3 percent above last year during the same week and brings this year’s total ethanol production to 4.1% above 2016. Ethanol stocks also increased last week, moving to 947 million gallons from 926 million. The increase in ethanol stocks reflects a 21.7 percent increase from last year during the same period and we are entering a season when ethanol stocks typically grow.

 

Russia announced that it will spend roughly $34 million in transportation subsidies to help speed up the export of their record wheat crop. The Deputy Agriculture Minister said that “We are not subsidizing exporters, we are subsidizing producers” and that the measures to not violate their commitments to the World Trade Organization. The transportation subsidies will make it more appealing to move grain from Siberia, Volga and central regions of Russia to markets.


 

Export sales were up from last week across the board with soybeans posting the strongest sales. Soybeans sales broke the 2 million metric ton mark and doubled last week’s sales. The increase in purchases can be mostly attributed to China but Thailand, Indonesia and Germany also made notable contributions. Wheat sales were within market expectations this week and up 74 percent from last week.   

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

321

250-450

Corn  

876

800-1,200

Soybeans

2,015

1,000-1,500

 

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

December 06, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 286

Informa Reduces Corn and Soybean Production Estimates

Grains Traded Higher in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains are trading higher with March corn up 1 ½ cents, January Soybeans up 3 ¼ cents and March wheat down ¾ of a penny. Yesterday, November 2018 soybeans broke through previous resistance set last month before the WASDE report and is now roughly 10 cents away from the contract high of $10.28. March corn is trading above the 20 day moving average this morning which could provide some intra-day support.

 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

Informa reduced their corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil for the 2017-18. Soybean production was reduced by 1 million metric tons to 110 million metric tons and corn production was revised lower by 3 million metric tons to 89 MMT. The company also reduced their estimate for Australian 2017-18 wheat production by 1.3 million metric tons to 20.3 MMT.

 

Statistics Canada released production numbers this morning, showing a larger than expected harvest. All wheat production was set at 29.98 million metric tons which was above expectations of 28 MMT. Canola production was set at 21.31 million metric tons which is a production record in Canada and above the highest trade guess of 21 MMT.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology announced yesterday that the surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific had reached La Nina levels. This weather event typically means colder winters in the Northern Hemisphere and warmer, wetter winters in the Southern Hemisphere. The Bureau also said that current models suggest the La Nina could be weak and not last long.   


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

December 05, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 673

Grain Movement Down the Ohio River has Ground to a Halt

Grain Mostly Higher in the Overnight Session

Grain Movement Down the Ohio River has Ground to a Halt

In the overnight session grain was mostly higher with March corn up a cent, January soybeans up 3 ¾ cents and March wheat down ¾ of a cent. Soybeans met significant selling pressure yesterday after gapping higher and trading to November 9th highs. By the close of the day session January Soybeans had given back $.09 ¾ of the rally and closed near the opening tick. This morning’s trade has brought soybeans back above the $10.00 mark. The March corn contract briefly traded at $3.60 yesterday before selling pressure took over bringing the contract down to $3.525 by the close. The 20 day moving average is again overhead at $3.54 ¾ which may offer up some resistance in today’s trade.

 

Exporters sell 162,000 metric tons of grain sorghum for delivery to China during the 2017/2018 marketing year.-USDA


 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!       

 

Grain movement down the Ohio River has ground to a halt after a large traffic jam keeps barges from making progress down the waterway. The problem area is at Locks & Dam No. 52 near Paducah which has offered trouble earlier on this fall. It is now the second shutdown in 2 months caused by worn or missing sections of the Dam.

Australian wheat has experienced significant precipitation over the last week with the weekend bringing the most intense rainfall. The moisture has surely damaged some crop and has traders concerned quality problems and the possibility head sprouting in some areas. Harvest has mostly stalled until the fields dry, but the forecast for Eastern Victoria and Southeastern New South Wales is for off-and-on rain throughout the week.  

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

December 04, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 366

Grains Higher in the Overnight Session

Cash Markets Moved Higher Last Week

In the overnight session the grains were higher with March corn up ½ of a cent, January Soybeans up 10 cents and March Wheat up 2 ¼ cents. January soybeans is now trading above the $10.00 mark, an area of strong resistance all Fall. Soybeans is now back to price levels that we have traded at prior to the November WASDE report with a resistance level at $10.08 ¼.  

 

Argentina precipitation over the last seven days has been strongest in the western part of the growing regions and relatively dry to the east. The soil moisture shows short to very short topsoil moisture in northern Argentina and marginally adequate to short moisture the other growing regions throughout the nation. The forecasts expects a ridge of high pressure to develop over Argentina next week which is expected to produce a number of high temperature days with little precipitation. There is concern that a net evaporation effect and deplete topsoil moisture which is critical for emergence of the newly planted crop.       

 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

The monthly Oilseed Crushings report released at 2 PM CST on Friday from the USDA estimated that 175.9 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in the month of October, this was a strong increase from September of 145 million bushels.  The estimates were above analyst expectations which averaged at 174.7 million bushels and ranged from 171 to 175.8 million bushels. The report also showed that 2.22 billion pounds of soybean oil was produced which was a 19 percent jump from September.  

 

 

The cash markets moved higher last week with corn basis up 3 cents and soybeans up 2 on average across the U.S. With harvest almost completely wrapped up, basis will have an opportunity to gain some ground going into the new year as farmers have filled and locked the bins and marketing stored grain is not necessarily high on their priority list.   


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

December 01, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 521

US Wheat Prices Edge Higher Today Supported Partly by Potential Demand from Saudi Arabia

Overnight Session Has Grains Trading Higher

In the overnight session the grains are trading higher with March corn up ¾ of a cent, January soybeans up 2 cents and March wheat up 1 ¼ cents. March wheat prices tested resistance yesterday which held. The contract notched an intraday high of $4.39 and finished the day near the lows at $4.33 confirming selling pressure around the lows in late October. Corn prices are also near a resistance level that held on November 22nd near the $3.58 price level.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 130,000 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

Argentina is expected to receive precipitation starting today and continuing throughout the weekend. On Friday, the rain is expected to cover southwestern Buenos Aires, northeastern La Pampa and San Luis with the weekend precipitation covering western Buenos Aires and parts of Cordoba and western Santa Fe. Brazil is also expected to receive favorable precipitation throughout the west central part of corn and soybean production regions, but the far south is expected to be dry through the remainder of the week.

Heavy rains are expected to intensify throughout Victoria and parts of South Australia threatening a standing wheat crop that is close to harvest. On Friday, Australia Bureau of Meteorology issued a “Severe weather warning for heavy rainfall.” These heavy rains and thunderstorms are expected to continue over the weekend and threaten to damage up to 4 million metric tons of wheat.

 

It was announced this morning that Taiwan Flour Millers Association purchased 81,780 metric tons of wheat to be sourced from the U.S in an international tender.   

  

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 30, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 461

Weekly Export Sales Disappointing for Corn and Wheat

Grains Trade Lower in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains traded lower with March corn down 1 ¼ cents, January Soybeans down 4 ¾ cents and March wheat at 3 ¾ cents. Corn had nice bounce yesterday after prices approached previous lows set back in the middle of November. The Dec17-Mar18 corn spread widened out to -14 ½ cents, the most we have seen this year.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 525,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR. EXPORTERS SELL 132,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR. EXPORTERS SELL 110,000 METRIC TONS OF GRAIN SORGHUM FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

Ethanol production declined slightly over the last week to 1.066 million barrels per day. Despite the decline this week's production was 5.3 percent above last year and was the 2nd highest weekly production on record. Ethanol production is 3.7 percent ahead of last years pace in the first few months of the marketing year which is well above the pace needed to meet USDA demand estimates. Ethanol stocks increased sharply to 22.044 million barrels, up 147,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks have been seasonally very strong as we head into a time of the year when stocks continue to get bigger. Ethanol stocks this week are now 20 percent over last year's levels.  

 

Export sales were disappointing for both corn and wheat this morning. Old crop corn only posted 599,200 metric tons of sales which was down 45 percent from the previous week. Wheat sales also disappointed, missing estimates by a substantial margin and declining 8 percent from the previous week. Soybean sales met expectations and increase 9 percent from last week.

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat - NC

184

250-450

Corn - OC

599

700-1,100

Soybeans - OC

942

800-1,200

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 29, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 966

USDA Releases Their Latest Estimates on Planting Acreage

Grains Were Mixed in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains traded mixed with December corn down ¾ of a cents, January soybeans down 1 ¾ cents and December Chicago wheat up 2 ¾ cents. First notice day for December corn and wheat contracts is Thursday the 30th. Most basis contracts that you may have with a grain buyer will need to be priced by noon today and any long futures contracts will need to be rolled by the end of today’s trading session.  

 

Exporters sell 263,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2017/2018 marketing year. Exporters sell 101,600 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year. -USDA

 

March wheat traded at a low yesterday of $4.24 ¼ cents before turning around and closing near the high side of its trading range. The next overhead resistance appears to be around $4.33 ¾ which was supported in late October but was broken last Friday.   

 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

In the past month China has purchased 10 to 12 cargoes of corn. The corn was sourced primarily from the U.S and it would appear that more purchases may be yet to come. Corn prices in China have been relatively high recently after the government encouraged farmers to plant less of the crop this year to help deplete the country's sizeable reserves. In the latest report from the Agricultural Ministry, China is expected to produce 210.1 million metric tons of corn this year which was lower than previous forecasts. With the country's demand for corn revised higher to 215.62 million metric tons there is a need to import corn to meet demand. China corn demand was revised higher after the government announced plans to roll out ethanol blending into fuel across the country's gasoline supply.  

 

 

Yesterday, the USDA released their latest estimates on the planting acreage for the 2018/19 crop year. They pegged soybean acreage at 91 million acres, up from 90.2 in 2017. The USDA also estimated an increase in corn acreage by 600,000 acres to 91 million acres. These forecasts and are not survey based.     

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 28, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 649

US Wheat Export Inspections Down 5.9% for this Marketing Year

Grains Trade Mostly Lower in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains traded mostly lower with December corn down 1 ¼ cents, January soybeans down 4 ¼ cents and December Chicago wheat down ¼ cent. The corn chart shows prices cupping back over toward the lows that were set in the middle of the month. January soybeans was able to trade at $10 briefly yesterday before selling pressure pushed it back under the strong psychological resistance level.

 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

In the latest Crop Progress report released out yesterday afternoon corn harvest progress has progressed to 95 percent complete from 90 percent last week. The states that still lag behind in harvest pace are Ohio at 87 percent complete, Wisconsin at 81 percent complete and Michigan at 84 percent complete. Soybean harvest pace was not reported on this week.

 

Winter Wheat conditions were downgraded this week to 50 percent of the crop rated good-to-excellent from 52 percent last week. Despite the slight decline in the winter wheat crop prices continue to be pressured lower by ample global stocks and strong export competition.

Argentina is expected to get some precipitation starting on Friday and continuing into Sunday, but below average rainfall in the first few weeks of December could cause trouble for late planted corn and soybeans.

 

The latest GASC tender on November 15th resulted in the purchase of 240,000 metric tons of Russian wheat.  


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 26, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 684

Wheat Trades at New Lows This Morning

Dec Corn, Jan Soybeans and Dec Wheat all down in Trading

In the overnight session December Corn is down ¾ of a cent, January Soybeans is down 1 cent and December wheat is down 3 cents this morning. Both December Wheat and December Corn contracts will go into first notice day on Thursday November 30th.

 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

Wheat trades at new lows this morning after Friday’s export sales disappointed traders. Russian wheat prices in the Black Sea also fell last week to $190.5 a metric ton as prices in the U.S and Europe become more competitive. Russian wheat sales will continue to weigh heavily on U.S. wheat prices. Russia has exported 20.2 million metric tons of grain this marketing year as of November 22nd which is up 27.6 percent from the previous year with wheat exports up 25.4 percent year over year.

Brazil soybean planting has increased to 84 percent complete this week, up 11 percent from last week. This is ahead of the five year average pace of 79 percent with the majority of the key growing regions now seeded. In Argentina planting made little progress last week. Soybean seeding now stands at 11.7 percent complete and corn planting is 34.5 percent complete up 5.9 percent from last year. Weather in Brazil continues to bring precipitation in the north but the far south is beginning to see dry areas. Argentina continues to see precipitation in the far North and east central parts of the growing region, but 1/3rd of the crop still needs precipitation. The regions 6-10 day outlook shows improved chances for moisture.

Saudi Arabia’s state grain buyer purchased 723,000 metric tons of feed barley sourced from Australia, North and South America, the EU and the Black Sea.

 

On Friday China announced that it will cut import taxes on 187 imported products including meats in an effort to stimulate consumer spending. The cuts will take place on December 1st and help U.S products become more competitive.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 22, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 842

Fall Weather Continues to be Challenging for Harvest

January Soybeans Up in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the December corn is unchanged, January Soybeans up 5 ¼ cents and December wheat is down ¾ of a cent. December corn continues to trade around resistance at $3.44 ¾ per bushel after breaking below that support level last week. Weather in Brazil looks beneficial to the corn and soybean crop with an active rain pattern across most all of the grain growing regions. Argentina continues to have areas of dryness for their corn and soybean crop, but the 11-15 day weather outlook points to some precipitation.

 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!


 

The grain markets will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, but will reopen Friday morning at 8:30 AM CST. Friday’s trade session will close early at 12:05 PM CST.  

 

Weather this fall has been challenging for harvest. The cooler weather and rain delays made it hard for later planted crops to dry down naturally in the field. Corn has been delivered wet from the field and has experienced moisture deductions and the size of the crop has put pressure on infrastructure.  Some elevators have shortened dump hours for high moisture grain as they try to work through their inventory. We have seen a 3 to 4 cent premium for 14.5 percent moisture corn at the Gulf.   


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

Page 1 of 157 pages  1 2 3 >  Last ›

More Articles