June 29, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 231

All eyes on Tuesday’s USDA Reports

The market is anticipating the acreage report and quarterly grain stocks report scheduled for release on Tuesday the 30th.

In the overnight session, the grains traded higher with corn up 5 1/2 cents, soybeans up 3 3/4 cents and wheat up 9 cents by the pause of trade this morning. The U.S. dollar is up only a fraction of a percent and crude oil is down 71 cents. All traders in long July grain contracts will need to liquidate or roll their positions by the close of trade today with Tuesday the 30th being First Notice. Tuesday the 30th also marks the release of two major USDA reports including the Planted Acreage report and the Quarterly Grain Stocks report.


In a Reuter’s poll of analysts the average analyst guess for the quarterly grain stocks is 718 million bushels for wheat, 4.555 billion bushels of corn and 670 million bushels of soybeans. This would be a draw down in grain stocks from 1.124 billion bushels of wheat, 7.745 billion bushels of corn and 1.334 billion bushels of soybeans reported on March 1st. The Quarterly Grain Stocks report will be released at 11 AM CST tomorrow.


Weather this week is expected to bring cooler than normal conditions to the Midwest and leave the northwest significantly hotter than normal. Rains are expected to pass through the Midwest leaving Illinois, Indiana Michigan and Ohio with more precipitation than normal this week while North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas expect drier weather. 

June 26, 2015 | | Views: 269
June 26, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 290

Grains Rally Sharply

Grains rally sharply early this morning as more rain is forecast to soak the already saturated Midwest.

In the overnight session the grains traded sharply higher with corn up 10 1/2 cents, soybeans up 19 1/2 cents and wheat up 26 3/4 cents this morning. Wheat has broken through resistance which hovered around $5.36 3/4 and is building momentum to the upside, soybeans has been above its 100 day moving average since Monday and is now trading above 10 dollars. Next resistance level for July soybeans is around $10.42 3/4 which was a previous high back on February 26th. Corn is trading around $3.86 1/2 this morning which is just above its downtrend resistance of $3.81 and the 100 day moving average of $3.79. Keep a close watch on today’s trade action as we could see prices chop around throughout the trade day.


This morning’s rally is triggered by the strong amount of rain that went through the Midwest on Wednesday and the rain forecast throughout Thursday and Friday. On Wednesday evening a storm blew through Iowa and Missouri dropping as much as 7 inches of rain in some areas. Traders are concerned that the excessive rains will damage yield prospects for this growing season. Thursday will usher in a another storm into the Midwest bringing 1 to 3 inches of rain to South Dakota and then Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio on into Saturday.


In other parts of the world dry weather is beginning to be a concern. The conditions of French wheat declined this week according to the FranceAgriMer who cited dry weather as the main reason. As of June 22nd the good to excellent ratings fell to 81 percent compared to 85 percent a week earlier and 87 percent on June 8th. Weather in France is expected to remain hot and dry with temperatures forecast to hit record highs next week in many parts of the country.​

June 25, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 259
June 25, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 182

Can Export Sales Lift the Market

Export sales showed mostly average sales within the range of analyst expectations. Traders eye the June 30th WASDE report.

In the overnight session the grains traded higher with corn up 2 1/2 cents, soybeans up 8 1/4 cents and wheat up 2 1/4 cents. The U.S dollar is mostly unchanged this morning and crude oil has slipped 29 cents lower.


The EIA ethanol production numbers showed that last week’s production was the largest this marketing year. Weekly production increased 14,000 barrels per day to 994,000 BPD. Ethanol stocks dropped 878,000 barrels to 19.840 million barrels helping to paint a more bullish picture. This marketing year ethanol production is up 4.7 percent compared to 2013/14.


This week’s export sales report showed that wheat booked 434,300 metric tons which was on the high side of analyst expectations which ranged from 200,000-450,000. Soybean sales fell 11 percent compared to last week to 118,000 metric tons but was still within the range of analyst expectations. Corn sales declined 21 percent to 496,800 metric tons. This was below the analyst estimates that ranged from 500,000-700,000 metric tons.


New crop sales were strong for corn however, booking 297,500 metric tons which was above the 100,000-200,000 metric tons expected this week. Soybeans booked 202,500 metric tons to be delivered in the 2015/2016 marketing year. 

June 24, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 281
June 24, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 172

Grains pull back in the overnight

The grains gave back some of the gains in the overnight session as traders prepare for the USDA planted acreage report to be released the end of June.

In the overnight session the grains traded lower with corn down 3 1/4 cents, wheat down 2 3/4 cents and soybeans down 6 1/2 cents. Crude oil is trading 10 cents lower and the U.S. dollar is down a fraction of a percent. The market will be focusing on the June 30th planted acreage numbers that is expected to have the biggest impact on Soybeans.


Soybeans were only 90 percent planted as of Monday which is 5 percent behind normal pace. Rains forecast across the Midwest this week helped lift soybean prices as traders became nervous about the remaining unplanted acreage. Allendale estimates corn planted acreage at 91.742 million acres which is up from the 89.199 million acres forecast by the USDA in March. Allendale expects soybean acreage to increase to 85.105 million acres which is up from 84.635 million acres estimated by the USDA in the March 31st report. The July soybean contract is currently above the 100 day moving average but is giving back some of its gains this morning. Look at 974 1/4 as a support level for today and tomorrows trade session.   


Winter wheat harvest is behind the average pace during this time of the year. On Monday, the crop progress announced that only 19 percent of the crop had been harvested which is behind the 31 percent harvested we typically see. Harvest prospects look to be mostly uninterrupted in the near term with some scattered storms expected on Thursday and Friday. However, the forecast turns wet again for the beginning of July which is likely to continue to disrupt harvest pace. Traders are also concerned about the wheat quality after the plains received significant moisture late in the growing season. Head scab has spread rapidly in the winter wheat fields of central Kansas. 

June 23, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 256

Surprising Strength from the Grains

Even as the U.S. Dollar found relative strength U.S. grains traded higher. Cody reviews the technicals and world news to see what may have cause the rise.

June 23, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 212

U.S. Dollar to pressure grains this morning

The U.S. dollar, which has risen sharply overnight, is expected to put pressure on the grain complex this morning.

In the overnight session, the grains were mixed with corn up 1 cent, soybeans down 1 3/4 cents and wheat up 2 1/2 cents. Crude oil has slipped 57 cents lower this morning with the U.S. dollar index up by over 1 percent. The dollar gained some strength following U.S. housing data and the euro was unable to hold onto recent gains as deal surrounding Greece’s debt remains in debate.


This morning there was some demand activity with Ethiopia buying 240,000 metric tons of wheat from optional origins. Traders expect this wheat to be sourced from the Black Sea region. Japan’s ministry of agriculture is also buying 114,510 metric tons of food quality wheat from the United States or Canada.


Export inspections showed that 1,105,000 metric tons of corn was inspected for export which was above the 800,000-1,000,000 metric tons expected. Soybeans showed 178,000 metric tons inspected for export which was within analyst expectations and wheat inspections missed expectations. Wheat inspections totaled to 290,000 metric tons compared to 300,000-400,000 metric tons anticipated by analysts.


Corn rated good-to-excellent fell 2 percent in this week’s crop progress report which was a bit more than traders were looking for. At this point in the marketing year 71 percent of the corn crop is rated good-to-excellent compared to 74 percent last year. Corn conditions in the eastern grain belt states like Indiana and Ohio dropped the most.


Soybean rated good-to-excellent also fell 2 percent this week which was in line with trade expectations. However, only 90 percent of the crop was planted which is now behind the 4 year average of 95 percent planted during this time of year.  

June 22, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 248

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