August 12, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 268

Report Day Expectations

Two major USDA reports will be released at 11 AM CST. Here is what you need to know.

Report Day Expectations

Grains are sliding lower into this morning’s USDA report. Corn is down 2, soybeans off 4 and Chicago wheat is down 6 cents. Today’s USDA report will be released at 11:00 AM central time.

This morning’s USDA report will be the first survey based yield estimate of the year. Yield figures will be the focus of the report following a July that saw ample moisture in the eastern grain belt but a return of drought conditions in Nebraska and the Dakotas. Below are trade expectations for the report and our take on the numbers. 

 

2014/15 Corn

July Reported

August Expected

Production (MB) 

13,860

14,253  

Yield (BPA) 

165.3

170.098 

Ending Stocks (MB) 

1,801

2,005  

 

2014/15 Soybeans

July Reported

August Expected

Production (MB) 

3,800

3,823

Yield (MB) 

45.2

45.583

Ending Stocks (MB) 

415

414 

 

Crop conditions were released yesterday at 3 PM CST and showed that the soybean good-to-excellent rating had slipped by one percent to 70%. The expectation for both corn and soybeans was to leave conditions unchanged.  Corn’s good-to-excellent rating met those expectations by maintaining 73% of the crop rated good-to-excellent. Spring wheat conditions were also left unchanged at 70% good-to-excellent. Spring wheat harvest has officially kicked off with 6% of the crop harvested about on pace with the five year average.  

China sold 23% of soybeans offered a state auction overnight. In total, 82,489 tonnes were sold compared to 69,243 in last week’s sale. This was a good signal for mainland Chinese demand, although it is important to note that most of the sales went to food companies who use non-GMO varieties exlusivle. Because of this, Chinese imports should not show a major impact from recent state auctions.

Please call our office if you have questions about speculative or hedge positions coming into the report. Our number is 877-472-4607and we are available between 8AM and 5PM central time.

August 11, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 203

Talking August Beans and Pre-Report Expectations

Today we discuss the August soybean contract and market expectations coming into tomorrow's USDA report at 11:00 AM central time. Want live mobile quotes for tomorrow's report? Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take a demo this evening and have live quotes fo

August 08, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 265

Tricky New Crop Basis Environment

​Logan and Cody discuss what was moving soybeans in today's trade as well as the expectations for the two major USDA reports scheduled to be released on Tuesday. Cody discusses spot basis changes throughout the country this week and compares this years ne

August 07, 2014 | Cody Bills | Views: 434
August 04, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 220

Corn Ratings Drop 2%

Today we discuss crop conditions released after the market close and what helped move grain markets higher.

August 01, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 338

Soybean Basis Turns Lower on the Week

Soybean basis was off sharply across the country, down nearly 14 cents on average. Today we discuss the cash market for corn and soybeans and what the markets will be focusing on next week.

Soybean Basis Turns Lower on the Week
July 31, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 297

Strong Weekly Sales for Wheat

Export sales were released this morning with strong sales reported for wheat and soybeans. Today we discuss the export sales report and trade technicals on soybeans.

July 30, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 359

Will New Russian Sanctions Impact U.S. Grains?

Today we discuss new Russian sanctions levied by the U.S. and European Union, and what impact this may have on the U.S. wheat market. Ethanol production was again strong and this is one balance sheet item that may need to be adjusted in the upcoming market

July 29, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 333

Soybeans Whipsaw Again

Cody and Logan discuss the latest round of reportable sales as well as the ethanol numbers due out during Wednesdays trading session. Cody talks about soybeans move lower today and gives his perspective on the movement.

July 29, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 211

Crop Conditions Slip

Crop conditions were revised lower more than expectations late Monday.

 Alert: First Notice for August Soybeans is on Thursday, July 31st 

 

Grains are trading lower in Chicago, with corn down 3 cents, soybeans off 10 and wheat unchanged to lower. This morning there were reportable sales of 135,000 metric tons of new crop Soymeal to unknown destinations and another 147,000 metric tons of corn to columbia for new crop delivery. 

 

Crop conditions were released yesterday after the market close, with good-to-excellent ratings falling for both corn and soybeans. Corn is now rated 75% G/E, down a percent from the previous week. Soybean conditions fell 2% and is now rated 71% G/E. Soybeans have found some strength on weather concerns in recent sessions as the western corn belt has been dry as we enter pod fill. Looking at progress - 38% of soybeans are now filling pods and corn is 78% silking. 83% of winter wheat is now harvested. 

 

Weather outlook seems to be supportive of a substantial rain event starting around the middle of next week and peaking during the weekend. The weather outlook favors the southwestern part of the grain belt which would eliminate any concerns for soybean yield in that area. Areas which could continue seeing dryness are parts of ND, SD, MN, WI, southern MI and northern OH. 

 

This morning Ukragroconsult raised its 2014 corn and wheat harvest forecasts for Ukraine. The wheat forecast was raised to 21 million tons from 20.5 million tons and the corn forecast was lifted to 27 million tons from 25.5 million tons, both of which are now in line with the estimates released in the July WASDE report. As of July 28th, Ukrainian farmers have harvested over 17.04 million acres and gathered a total of 23.6 million metric tons of grain. Of the grain harvested, the agricultural ministry said 16.3 million metric tons of it was wheat and 6.8 million metric tons of it was barley.  

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