October 13, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 242
October 13, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 231

USDA Report Hit Expectations for US Corn and Soybean Production

Grains Mixed in the Overnight Session

Grains were mixed overnight following yesterday’s selloff. In outside markets equity futures were pressing lower as was the US dollar while crude oil was holding on to small gains.

 

Yesterday’s USDA crop report did little to change the bearish stance in the grain market as USDA mostly hit expectations for US corn and soybean production. Ending stocks were cut thanks to USDA ratcheting up their forecast for both corn and soybean exports, but meeting the now 2.025 billion bushel soybean export number may prove challenging if Brazil ramps up soybean production as USDA expects.

 

Overnight there was a fair amount of tender interest. First, Egypt’s GASC was tendering for an unspecified amount of soft and milling wheat. Saudi Arabia's main state grain buyer SAGO said on Thursday it was seeking to purchase 595,000 tonnes of hard wheat from global suppliers in an international tender. And two different South Korean feed manufacturers are in the market for corn, totaling 195,000 MT.

On Wednesday, the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting were released and policymakers judged a rate hike would be warranted "relatively soon" if the U.S. economy continued to strengthen. In oil, American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday reported that U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels to 470.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 7. This would be the first rise in oil stocks following five straight weeks of declines. Official government EIA data will be out later this morning.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 257
October 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 178

USDA Supply and Demand Report Out Later Today

In outside markets, the US Dollar Continues to Strengthen

Grains continued to mark time with limited movements, awaiting USDA’s latest supply and demand forecasts out later this morning. In outside markets the US dollar continued to strengthen hitting its highest point in 7 months.

This morning USDA announced a 115,000 MT sale of soybeans to China. Traders will look for guidance from USDA’s crop report out at 11 am this morning. The trade is looking for a dip in corn yield from 174.4 last month to 173.5 this month, while soybean yields are expected to be higher hitting 51.5 versus 50.6 last month.

Australia is expected to harvest a near-record wheat crop in 2016/17, but recent heavy rains may lead to quality downgrades and curb exports. Analysts expect a crop of 28.35 MMT just above  Australia's most recent official estimate of 28.1 MMT made in September. The bumper crop, which would be the second highest on record behind a near-30 million tonnes in 2010/11, follows good growing weather early in the season, but faces risks from soaking east-coast rains and unseasonably cold weather in Western Australia.

OPEC reported an increase in oil production in September to the highest in at least eight years and raised its forecast for 2017 non-OPEC supply growth, pointing to a larger surplus next year despite the group's deal to cut output. OPEC pumped 33.39 million barrels per day last month, up 220,000 bpd from August. The figures underline OPEC's challenge in seeking to restrain supplies for the first time since 2008 to curb a persistent supply glut and prop up prices.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

October 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 289
October 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 170

Grains Lethargic in the Overnight

Export Inspections to be Released Later Today

Grains were lethargic overnight with listless two-sided trade. In outside markets, equity futures and crude oil were weaker following Monday’s rally.

 

This morning USDA announced a 161,544 MT sale of corn to unknown destinations. Export inspections will be released later this morning after the Columbus Holiday on Monday pushed government reports forward a day. Traders look for wheat 400,000-600,000 tonnes, corn 1.1-1.4 million tonnes, soybeans 1.0-1.2 million tonnes.

 

Torrential rains across most Ukrainian regions after a severe drought could leave around 500,000 hectares of winter grain area unsown a senior state weather forecaster said on Tuesday. Ukraine's winter wheat harvest is highly dependent on moisture content in the soil during the autumn sowing, air temperatures in winter and favorable weather in spring."The outlook is very gloomy," said Tetyana Adamenko, the head of the agriculture department for the state weather.

Rains early next week slow harvest in all but far W. Midwest, but drier 11-15 day aids recovery until end of period. Rains remain limited in Plains hard red wheat next 10 days, but rain chances improve late in 11-15 day for dry spots.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 246
October 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 207

Grains Mixed in Quiet Trade to Start the Week

US Dollar is Up this morning

Grains were mixed in quiet trade to start the week while crude oil continued to march higher. Equity futures and the US dollar were up as well in early morning trade action.

 

Wheat came into the week in a buying mood following Friday’s CFTC report which showed a record large short spec position. Also, overnight French Farm Ministry cut their forecast for wheat production to 28.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 28.2 MMT. However, they did bump up their corn forecast to 12.6 MMT from 12.5 previously.

 

Export deals were active in wheat overnight.. A group of South Korean mills bought a couple of loads of wheat totaling 100,000 MT from Australia while a flour mill in Bahrain bought 25,000 MT of wheat from Baltic Sea markets

 

In the US weekend weather was mostly dry across the Midwest which helped move corn/soy harvest along. This week there are a few minor showers in the Central and SW Midwest; longer term, the 6-15 day forecast shows some rain potential could slow C. & E. Midwest corn/soy harvest progress briefly, but overall progress near normal.

Crude oil sold off on Friday after the Russian energy ministers said “he was not expecting to sign a production deal with OPEC at the World Energy Conference, which starts this week in Istanbul.” In addition, the Baker Hughes weekly report on U.S. oil rig counts increased for the 7th straight week to 428 rigs.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 147

Grains were Mixed in Quiet Trade to Start the Week

US Dollar was Up this Morning

Grains were mixed in quiet trade to start the week while crude oil continued to march higher. Equity futures and the US dollar were up as well in early morning trade action.

 

Wheat came into the week in a buying mood following Friday’s CFTC report which showed a record large short spec position. Also, overnight French Farm Ministry cut their forecast for wheat production to 28.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 28.2 MMT. However, they did bump up their corn forecast to 12.6 MMT from 12.5 previously.

 

Export deals were active in wheat overnight.. A group of South Korean mills bought a couple of loads of wheat totaling 100,000 MT from Australia while a flour mill in Bahrain bought 25,000 MT of wheat from Baltic Sea markets

 

In the US weekend weather was mostly dry across the Midwest which helped move corn/soy harvest along. This week there are a few minor showers in the Central and SW Midwest; longer term, the 6-15 day forecast shows some rain potential could slow C. & E. Midwest corn/soy harvest progress briefly, but overall progress near normal.

Crude oil sold off on Friday after the Russian energy ministers said “he was not expecting to sign a production deal with OPEC at the World Energy Conference, which starts this week in Istanbul.” In addition, the Baker Hughes weekly report on U.S. oil rig counts increased for the 7th straight week to 428 rigs.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 261

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