August 17, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 253
August 17, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 216

Soybeans Lead the Overnight Session

Crude Oil lower with Limited Trade

Grains were higher overnight again led by soybeans while wheat was in the red for much of the night session. In outside markets, the US dollar was fractionally higher after yesterday’s steep sell-off and crude oil was also lower in limited trade.

 

Wheat continues to struggle with ample domestic and world stockpiles. The US carry-out projections are giving us nearly half of a year’s crop  (47.4%). While international players like France and Germany are having severe crop issues, the rest of the world remains replete in wheat stockpiles. The US dollar has moved 2% lower in the past two weeks which should help bolster US competitiveness in wheat trade.

 

Soybean prices continue to rally off of their lows from August 2nd, adding nearly 60 cents a bushel in that time frame. Corn, while higher, has found less enthusiasm to the upside only adding 13 cents. Farmers continue to struggle with holding old crop corn inventories to make way for the new crop in the next month. Storage space will surely be at a premium this fall.

 

Crude oil prices fell in early Asia trade Wednesday, as optimism that major producers would agree to a production freeze agreement ebbed after Iran signaled it has little interest in such a deal. Traders and investors are focusing on the weekly U.S. oil data to be released later today. Estimates by the American Petroleum Institute indicate U.S. crude stocks fell 1 million barrels, but gasoline inventories rose 2.2 million barrels.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 16, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 242
August 16, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 215

Grains Mostly Higher Overnight

US Dollar sharply lower

Grains were mostly higher overnight as soybeans and corn continue to add to recent gains while wheat slipped. In outside markets, the US dollar was sharply lower while crude oil slipped lower from 5-week highs.

 

On Monday, USDA’s crop progress report showed corn and soybean condition unchanged from last week, with corn pegged at 74% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 72%. Also on Monday, NOPA’s monthly soybean crush report was disappointing showing 143.7 MB of soybeans crushed in July while traders had been looking for 146.7 MB.

 

In international news, the head of Russia’s grain union expects the wheat crop there to be 69.5 MMT. That would be a lower number than the 72.0 MMT pegged by USDA. Germany's 2016 wheat harvest will fall 8.8% on the year to 24.21 MMT after crops suffered from bad weather this summer with rain and lack of sunshine, the country's association of farm cooperatives said on Tuesday. This was down from the 25.4 MMT the association had previously forecast in July with crops in the meantime suffering from persistent harvest-time showers in major German grain belts.

 

Oil prices remained near five-week highs on Tuesday, fueled by talk of producers taking action to prop up the market, although some investors cashed in during Asian hours on the 16% rally since early August. Asian equity markets rose to one-year highs, expanding their gains this year to 10 percent, supported by a jump in oil prices and investor expectations of an extended phase of easy monetary policy around the globe.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 15, 2016 | Arlette Sambs | Views: 653

Top 5 Reasons Not To Miss Feed & Grain LIVE

Time is running out to sign up for this important conference

Top 5 Reasons Not To Miss Feed & Grain LIVE
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We’re only a week away from the start of Feed & Grain LIVE! Aug. 22 is fast approaching and I can’t wait to see our readers face-to-face in Altoona, IA, for a few drinks, great food and top notch education.  

It seems like just yesterday our group sat down and decided to bring a live version of Feed & Grain to our readers. What grew from that meeting is what we believe to be the biggest bang for your buck in the industry. 

If you haven’t signed up and still need convincing, here are the top five reasons to join us at Feed & Grain LIVE.

  1. Education — The Feed, Grain and Management & Safety tracks are comprised of six sessions, and will have useful, practical information that can be taken back to your facility and put into use right away.
  2. Keynote Addresses — We’ve worked hard to bring in keynotes that can give our attendees information about the current and future agricultural economy. Including Rod Paulson, vice president of CHS Processing and Ambassador Darci Vetter, chief agricultural negotiator with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
  3. Facility improvement ideas — We’ve gathered three managers from past issue cover stories to relate their personal experiences. They’ll go through why they built or expanded, how it went and what’s happened in the time since they were on the cover.
  4. Exhibitor hall — 47 exhibitors have signed up for Feed & Grain LIVE! Representatives are there with the latest technology, eager to help you make your facility the best it can be.
  5. Networking — Join your peers for food and drinks during the opening reception, and make connections with other facility managers from across the US.

If you need any more reasons, be sure to check out Feed & Grain LIVE’s website. You can also sign up for the event by following this link here.

I hope to see every one there! If you have any questions email me at arlette.sambs@feedandgrain.com or call me directly at 920-397-3828.

Looking forward to meeting you,

Arlette Sambs, Publisher

August 15, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 260

Grains Start the Week Higher

Crude Oil also trading higher

Grains were higher to start the new week, shrugging off Friday’s bumper crop forecasts by USDA. Crude oil was also higher, trading briefly above $45 for the first time since Jul 21.

 

Friday’s crop report couldn’t have been much more bearish as both corn and soybean production forecasts came in well above analyst expectations, but traders seemed skeptical of 175 yield on US corn as prices ended up rallying on the news and continue to trade higher today. Export prices for US corn has achieved the low price medal in the world market, which should help keep export business brisk.

 

Saudi Arabia's main state wheat buying agency the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) said on Monday it has purchased 640,000 tonnes of hard wheat in a tender. A tender for for 600,000 tonnes content had closed on Friday seeking wheat with 12.5 percent protein for October and November shipment. The accepted origins in the tender were the European Union, North America, South America and Australia at the sellers' option.

 

NOPA July crush estimates are out later this morning. The report is expected to show a crush of 146.7 million bushels of soybeans in July. That would have been the biggest crush ever for any July. The previous record of 145.227 was set in July 2015. In June, NOPA processors crushed 145.050 million bushels of soybeans. Crush forecasts ranged from 142.643 million to 150.000 million bushels, with a median of 147.500 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release on Monday at 11 a.m. CDT

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 439
August 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 277

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 08/12/2016

National basis was mixed yet again. Soybeans saw slight basis gains while corn moved lower.

 

On average, corn lost ½ a cent per bushel. Ethanol basis followed in lockstep, losing ½ a cent as well. Even with strong exports this week, corn along the river dropped of 5 ½ cents per bushel.

 

Soybean crush facilities lead the move higher gaining 4.64 cents per bushel. Reports of increased worldwide demand for soyoil could be helping. Overall soybean basis edged up 1.5 cents this week on strong export demand. Soybean river basis broke the trend and was off almost a cent to close the week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 268

USDA News Today at 11 a.m.

Grain Markets Drift Lower in the Overnight

Grain markets drifted lower overnight as traders await news from USDA at 11 am CDT this morning about the size of the corn and soybean crop.

 

Traders are looking for big bumps in the yield and production forecasts relative to USDA’s numbers in July. For corn, traders expect a 170.6 corn yield and a production forecast of 14.76 billion bushels. This would be up from the July forecast of 168.0 and 14.54, respectively. For soybeans, July’s estimates by USDA were 46.7 for yield and 3.88 for production. Traders expect those numbers to grow to 47.5 and 3.94, respectively.

 

In overnight news, the Taiwan Flour Millers' Association purchased 85,250 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said on Friday. The wheat was bought for September/October shipment in two consignments comprising different wheat types, they said.

 

USDA reported a sale of 258,000 MT of soybeans to China.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 309

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