Grains pull back in the overnight
The grains gave back some of the gains in the overnight session as traders prepare for the USDA planted acreage report to be released the end of June.
In the overnight session the grains traded lower with corn down 3 1/4 cents, wheat down 2 3/4 cents and soybeans down 6 1/2 cents. Crude oil is trading 10 cents lower and the U.S. dollar is down a fraction of a percent. The market will be focusing on the June 30th planted acreage numbers that is expected to have the biggest impact on Soybeans.
Soybeans were only 90 percent planted as of Monday which is 5 percent behind normal pace. Rains forecast across the Midwest this week helped lift soybean prices as traders became nervous about the remaining unplanted acreage. Allendale estimates corn planted acreage at 91.742 million acres which is up from the 89.199 million acres forecast by the USDA in March. Allendale expects soybean acreage to increase to 85.105 million acres which is up from 84.635 million acres estimated by the USDA in the March 31st report. The July soybean contract is currently above the 100 day moving average but is giving back some of its gains this morning. Look at 974 1/4 as a support level for today and tomorrows trade session.
Winter wheat harvest is behind the average pace during this time of the year. On Monday, the crop progress announced that only 19 percent of the crop had been harvested which is behind the 31 percent harvested we typically see. Harvest prospects look to be mostly uninterrupted in the near term with some scattered storms expected on Thursday and Friday. However, the forecast turns wet again for the beginning of July which is likely to continue to disrupt harvest pace. Traders are also concerned about the wheat quality after the plains received significant moisture late in the growing season. Head scab has spread rapidly in the winter wheat fields of central Kansas.
Surprising Strength from the Grains
Even as the U.S. Dollar found relative strength U.S. grains traded higher. Cody reviews the technicals and world news to see what may have cause the rise.
U.S. Dollar to pressure grains this morning
The U.S. dollar, which has risen sharply overnight, is expected to put pressure on the grain complex this morning.
In the overnight session, the grains were mixed with corn up 1 cent, soybeans down 1 3/4 cents and wheat up 2 1/2 cents. Crude oil has slipped 57 cents lower this morning with the U.S. dollar index up by over 1 percent. The dollar gained some strength following U.S. housing data and the euro was unable to hold onto recent gains as deal surrounding Greece’s debt remains in debate.
This morning there was some demand activity with Ethiopia buying 240,000 metric tons of wheat from optional origins. Traders expect this wheat to be sourced from the Black Sea region. Japan’s ministry of agriculture is also buying 114,510 metric tons of food quality wheat from the United States or Canada.
Export inspections showed that 1,105,000 metric tons of corn was inspected for export which was above the 800,000-1,000,000 metric tons expected. Soybeans showed 178,000 metric tons inspected for export which was within analyst expectations and wheat inspections missed expectations. Wheat inspections totaled to 290,000 metric tons compared to 300,000-400,000 metric tons anticipated by analysts.
Corn rated good-to-excellent fell 2 percent in this week’s crop progress report which was a bit more than traders were looking for. At this point in the marketing year 71 percent of the corn crop is rated good-to-excellent compared to 74 percent last year. Corn conditions in the eastern grain belt states like Indiana and Ohio dropped the most.
Soybean rated good-to-excellent also fell 2 percent this week which was in line with trade expectations. However, only 90 percent of the crop was planted which is now behind the 4 year average of 95 percent planted during this time of year.
Continued Support for Soybeans?
Cody's back and breaks down export inspections, soybean technicals, weather reports, and crop progress.
Soybeans Push Higher
The soybean market pushed higher above the 100 day moving average early Monday morning.
In the overnight the grains are higher with soybeans leading the charge up 7 1/2 cents, wheat up 4 1/4 cents higher and corn down 1/2 a penny. July soybeans now trades above $9.74 which is the 100 day moving average after closing Friday below that level. Crude oil is up 22 cents this morning and the U.S. dollar is only a fraction of a percent higher. The USDA crop progress is expected out at 3 PM CST today.
On Friday, Informa Economics lowered its estimate of U.S. soybean plantings this year to 86.760 million acres down from 87.185 million acres in its previous forecast. Despite the downgrade, Informa is still above the current USDA estimates of 84.635 million acres which was released in March. The USDA will revise its Planted Acreage estimate on June 30th.
The European Union’s crop monitoring service MARS revised its yield estimates from 5.93 tons per hectare to 5.85 metric tons per hectare as a result of low soil moisture throughout the western and central parts of Europe. Higher than normal temperatures early this month accelerated development of crops in Spain Italy and Southern France, but the lack of soil moisture recently has begun to stress the crop. MARS has left corn yield estimates unchanged.
U.S. weather is expected to bring widespread showers later on this week which should continue to help the crops development. Following the showers on Thursday and Friday the outlook shifts to a drier milder outlook.
Weekly Cash Comments
Cash Commentary for week ending June 19
Grain basis was mostly stable this week with both corn and soybeans unchanged for the week across the U.S.
Weather was the big concern this week as Tropical Storm Bill hit Texas and Oklahoma and made its way into the Ohio Valley by late in the week. Wet conditions are leading to not only planting problems, but shipping delays along the IL & MS River as swollen rivers are shutting down some stretches for barge traffic. In FOB market, export premiums were firmer on Thursday because of high water levels on Illinois and Mississippi rivers. FOB soybean basis offers for July were offered at 105 cents over CBOT July on Thursday, up 10c from Wednesday.
End users were mostly quiet this week with little directional movement for either corn or soybean plants. The sharp rally in soybean futures helped increase some farmer selling of old-crop which caused basis levels at soy plants to be weaker as a result. In ethanol, production levels were off this week by 12,000 barrels per day to 980,000 barrels. Basis levels in the Western Cornbelt tended to be weaker for corn end users this week.
Excess Moisture Slows Wheat Harvest
Grains were lower in the overnight
Grains were lower overnight with soybeans leading the complex to the downside with a 5-cent drop in the night session. Corn gave up 3 cents a bushel while wheat was fractionally lower.
Beans continue to find it difficult to trade for an extended time above $9.40 basis the new-crop November contract. After trading as low as $8.97 early in the week, the market bolted higher on flooding concerns and planting delays but over the past two sessions that bullish rally has grown tame. As Tropical Storm Bill’s impact reaches the Ohio Valley, rainfall totals are not expected to be as large as once feared. In other news, Argentina’s Ag Ministry bumped their old-crop soybean forecast to 61 MMT from its previous estimate of 60 MMT.
In wheat, harvest progress continues to be slowed in the Southern Plains due to excess moisture. U.S. HRW wheat harvest summary released on Friday by Plains Grains, a company that tracks wheat quality based in Oklahoma, reports Texas harvest is 49 percent complete and Oklahoma wheat is 41 percent done. In export news, a South Korean flour mill bought 73,000 MT of US wheat overnight.
For corn, weather forecasting firm Planalytics released their latest US yield forecast which they now peg at 166.2 bushels per acre, up from their previous forecast two weeks ago which came in at 164.1. Flooding halted barge traffic on the Illinois River. Traders said the disruptions would likely have a limited impact on grain trading because they will probably be over before the end of the month, when traders can begin delivering crops against futures contracts. The Illinois River is forecast to crest at many locations by early next week, according to the National Weather Service.
Grains Lower in the Overnight
Wet weather continues to be a concern for the markets.
Grains dipped lower in the night trade after taking a breather from the two-day rally that pushed soybean prices to their highest level in a month. Going into the morning break, soybeans were down 5, corn was down 1 and wheat was fractionally higher.
Wet weather continues to be a concern for the markets as soybean planting still needs to be completed in some areas where excessive moisture is present. Also, soggy fields are taking a bit of a toll on the crop health with the condition of the US corn crop slipping 1 percent last week and soybean condition dipped 2 percent. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are expected to push through southern Missouri, Illinois and Indiana over the next few days bringing as much as 3 to 5 inches of precipitation to already soaked fields. However, once this system blows through temperatures are expected to rise and precipitation should be limited.
On the river systems, high water is causing issues with barge traffic and the result has been a sharp increase in barge costs. In ethanol news, output for the week was off 12,000 barrels per day to 980,000 barrels per day but the big change was a large jump in ethanol stocks, which were up 472,000 barrels to 20.72 million barrels, the highest point since May 1.
Export sales this morning were mostly on par with expectations. Wheat sales for the new-crop marketing year came in at 315,700 MT versus trade estimates of 200,000 to 400,000 MT. Old-crop corn totaled 627,000 MT as compared to the trade estimate range of 400,000 to 600,000 and new-crop sales were 200,400 MT versus trade estimates of 50,000 to 200,000 MT. New-crop soybeans were well above expectations with 532,000 MT while analysts expected only 150,000 to 350,000 MT but old-crop sales came in at the low end of expectations at 132,900 MT versus trade estimates of 100,000 to 250,000 MT.
Continued Recovery in the Overnight
Declining crop conditions have markets moving higher.
Grain futures continued their recovery in the night session as heavy rains and declining crop conditions have the markets moving higher. Corn was up 3 cents a bushel while wheat and corn are up 6 cents a bushel.
In wheat, heavy rains from Tropical Storm Bill will push through Eastern OK/TX over the next few days. While this is not in the path of the major HRW wheat belt, the rains should eventually find their way to SRW wheat territory of IL/IN/MO. In export news, Taiwan bought 97,420 MT of US wheat and the market is waiting to see the outcome of the Japanese wheat tender expected to be announced in the next day.
For soybeans, new-crop November futures posted its largest daily gain since February closing up 23 cents. It continued higher in the overnight session but met some selling pressure going into the break. Although planting delays are a moderate concern, excess moisture at this time of year may not be a catalyst for a sustained rally. This year is still expected to be another year of record production and acreage so any slip in acres would likely be muted by the beneficial soil moisture for much of the country.
In corn, prices moved higher on Tuesday and in the overnight session but the gains are rather tepid. The one bright spot of late has been two large purchases announced by USDA on Monday and Tuesday morning which showed over 100,000 MT booked for new-crop delivery by Japan and over 100,000 MT booked for old-crop delivery by unknown destinations.
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