November 07, 2016 | Kevin McNew | Views: 97

Fresh Export Deals this Morning

Grains were mixed overnight as soybeans posted solid gains to start the week while corn and soybeans drifted lower. Outside markets reacted sharply to the weekend announcement that the FBI would not change its view on Clinton’s emails. This sent equity markets sharply higher and gave the US Dollar and crude oil a big bounce.

 

USDA announced a 172,000 MT sale of corn, a 132,000 MT of soybeans and a 135,000 MT of soymeal this morning.

 

Palm oil traded higher as did other Asian veg oil markets, helping lift soybean futures. Rains are expected in the coming days in Argentina to add to the flooding woes for farmers there. The north-central La Pampa and far
southern Cordoba had seen a record 20 inches of rain during the month of October and 16 inches of that occurred in a 12-day period. Some are suggesting the Argentine wheat crop could be in the low 13 MMT range vs USDA at 14.4.  But, in Brazil weather continues to be mostly favorable with 53% of the soy crop planted versus a 5-year average of 49%

 

Grain markets will look to USDA on Wednesday for their latest crop estimates,. Traders expect soybean yields to be bumped by 0.6 bushels per acre to 52.0 but also look for higher exports. Overall the trade is expecting carryout to go from 400 to 420 MB. For corn, analysts are mixed on yield, with the average estimate showing a 0.2 bushels per acre decline to 173.2

 

Stocks and the dollar posted their biggest gains in weeks on Monday after the FBI said it stood by a recommendation that no criminal charges were warranted against Hillary Clinton. The news lifted a cloud over the Democrat's presidential campaign two days before the U.S. election and put Wall Street firmly on track to snap a nine-day losing streak

November 04, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 72
November 04, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 146

Robust Export Pace Continues

Grains drifted lower overnight in lackluster trade while in outside markets crude oil hit its lowest mark since Sept 20. Equities and the US Dollar posted modest gains.

Expectations continue to mount for a growing soybean production figure in USDA’s November crop report next Wednesday. Yesterday, Informa boosted their soybean production forecast to 52.4 bushels per acre versus USDA in October of 51.4 and Informa’s October forecast of 51.6. However,export pace continues to be robust with 4 of the past 5 weekly sales showing better than 2 MMT of soybean sales. Historically, USDA tends to underestimate exports in the November report versus a report 6 months later in the season in May. In the past 10 years, USDA has been lower in their November forecast in 7 of those years versus the May forecast, and on average they’ve missed the mark by 65 MB.

 

table

 

 

Overnight Japan bought 153,156 MT of food wheat in a usual tender. Of the total 58,800 MT is from the US while the rest goes to Canada and Australia.

Equity markets continue to be defensive ahead of the US election on Tuesday. With the polls tightening investors remain cautious about the outcome and potential implications of each candidate. This morning US jobless numbers were a bit disappointing as new jobs grew 161,000 but were below expectations of 175,000 and last month’s reading of 191,000.

November 03, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 192
October 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 222

Soybeans Continue Their Climb Reaching 2-Month Highs

Oil Prices Fell on Wednesday

Soybeans continued to climb reaching fresh 2-month highs and above its 10-day moving average while corn and wheat also added to yesterday’s gains.

 

Soymeal was sharply higher yesterday, helping fuel the bean rally while domestic prices for soybeans are up over 50-cents a bushel in the past few days, doubling up the US gains. Traders are looking for big US exports to China to continue as crush margins and import margins for beans the best they’ve been in a year. Also with the harvest now likely past 80% harvested it seems bear positions may be leaving the building.

 

South Korea's largest foodmaker, NOFI, purchased about 273,000 MT of corn in a tender which closed on Wednesday. The corn was bought in four consignments which can be sourced from the United States, South America or worldwide origins. Taiwan's maize industry procurement association, MFIG, purchased 65,000 tonnes of corn to be sourced optionally from the United States or Brazil in an international tender which closed on Thursday.

Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday on growing doubts OPEC will cut production, giving back the gains after the EIA inventory data. US crude
stockpiles fell 553,000 barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, a result contrary to the 1.7 million-barrel build that analysts polled by Reuters had forecast.

 

Weekly export sales

                                     Actual     Expected

Corn                                  799      900-1,200

Soybeans                        2,045   1,500-2,500

Wheat                               646        350-550

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 578
October 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 184

Soybeans Continue to Climb Higher

US Dollar and Equity Futures Lower

Soybeans continued to ratchet higher while corn and wheat had some modest gains in sympathy. In outside markets, the US dollar and equity futures were lower and crude was sharply off.

 

Palm oil continued to rally overnight hitting a two-month high helping push soybeans higher and approaching the $10-mark. Egypt overnight announced they bought 420,000 MT of wheat from Russia and Romania. Although there was a US offer thrown into the pool, but none was accepted.

 

A South Korean feed maker is said to be shopping for 276,000 MT of corn and 69,000 MT of wheat for early 2017 delivery.

 

In South American weather, Brazil looks good for ample moisture over the next several weeks. Argentina will be dry thru the weekend but rains are expected to bring beneficial moisture early next week.

Crude oil took a hit as API stocks data after Tuesday’s close showed a 5 million barrel build in oil inventories and a nearly 2 million barrel build. For today’s official EIA data, the trade is only looking for a 750,000 barrel build in oil and a 1.25 million barrel decline in gas inventories.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 205
October 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 226

Corn and Wheat Hovering Around Unchanged in the Overnight

Barge Rates Shot Up Yesterday

Grains were mixed overnight as soybeans were tending weaker while corn and wheat were hovering around unchanged going into the morning break. In outside markets, equity futures and crude oil were in slightly positive territory.

 

On Monday USDA reported that the US corn crop was 61% harvested versus 46% last week and 63% for the 5-year average. Soybeans was 76% harvested versus 62% last week and is on par with the 5-year average.

 

In overnight action, Egypt tendered for more wheat and 7 offers were made with the lowest coming in at $182.74/MT from Russia, although there was one US offer by Cargill for $185. South Korea was also in the market for 70,000 MT of corn. This morning USDA announced a 516,000 MT sale of US soybeans to China.

Barge rates shot up yesterday along the river with gains of 10 cents or more a bushel in barge freight costs. River terminals had steep losses in basis, especially soybeans which saw CME delivery point markets lose 15 cents on spot basis. Current basis levels at CME soybean delivery facilities are running 25 cents below normal as we head closer to first notice day on Monday for November futures.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 258

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