July 09, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 144

Markets Move Higher

The grain markets move higher this morning as traders prepare for the WASDE report scheduled out on Friday and as China equity markets stabilize.

In the overnight session the grains traded higher with corn up 2 3/4 cents, soybeans up 14 1/4 cents and wheat up 6 1/4 cents. The U.S dollar is up a fraction of a percent and crude oil is up $1.50. Traders will be positioning themselves for the July WASDE report which will be released out on Friday, July 10th.


Informa cut its soybean production forecast by 41 million bushels to 3.77 billion bushels in its latest forecast citing lost acreage in Missouri and crop damage from the recent heavy rains.

Growing conditions have been ideal for the second crop in South America. Brazil’s government crop agency Conab raised its corn production forecast to 81.81 million metric tons, up from 80.21 million metric tons last month. Conab is also raising its soybean and wheat forecast to 96.22 million metric tons and 7.01 million metric tons respectively.


In this morning’s export sales report corn, soybeans and wheat all met analyst expectations for old crop sales. Wheat booked 345,900 metric tons which was a 5 percent decline from last week, but fell within expectations which ranged between 300-500 metric tons. Old crop corn sales were reported at 535,200 metric tons, down 10 percent from the previous week. Soybeans booked positive export sales of 41,000 metric tons, which was a big improvement from the cancellations reported last week. New crop sales were mixed, with corn reporting below expectations at 149,000 metric tons and soybeans meeting expectations at 201,000 metric tons.


Ethanol production jumped 19,000 barrels per day this week to a total of 987,000 barrels per day. This is a significant improvement over last week and nearly 60,000 barrels per day higher than last year’s pace. Ethanol stocks increased 309,000 barrels this week to a total of 19,840,000 barrels.


The Ukrainian Ag Minister announced today that grain output may be adjusted lower from their previous forecast of 60 million metric tons of grain this year. Temperatures above the high 80’s Fahrenheit have stressed late developing crops and heavy precipitation in the southern and central regions have caused serious quality issues in the wheat. 

July 08, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 207

Bullish News from the Grains

Worldwide news proved mostly bullish for the markets. Cody reviews ethanol production, export sales, and yield estimations.

July 08, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 153

Grains Mostly Steady

The grains were mostly steady to slightly lower this morning as China's Shanghai Index sells off sharply on Wednesday.

In the overnight session the grains traded marginally lower with corn down 1 cent, wheat down 5 1/2 cents and soybeans down 1 1/4 cents. The U.S. dollar is trading down 1/3rd of a percent and crude oil has fallen 21 cents. A reportable sale of 240,000 metric tons of new crop soybeans was announced this morning.


On Wednesday, the Chinese market fell 5.9 percent causing the exchange to halt trading in 1,331 companies. Since the height of the market the Shanghai Composite Index has now fallen 32 percent. This major selloff in the Chinese equity markets will affect commodities as investors shore up capital to meet margin requirements, hedge equity losses and/or redeploy capital in the wake of sharp selloff.  


Last night brought between .5-1 inch of precipitation between Oklahoma, north central Texas, Kansas City and Western Indiana. For Missouri, a state that has planted only 73 percent of soybeans as of July 5th, more rain is expected in the forecast throughout today and Thursday. Weather should begin to clear in Missouri next week with most of the precipitation focused on the eastern grain belt covering Indiana and Ohio. Temperatures throughout the majority of the Midwest will remain cooler than normal.  


Cargill offered U.S. wheat for $260 per metric ton in the latest GASC tender. This was significantly higher than Ukrainian wheat offered at $202 per metric ton and Russian wheat offered at $202 per ton. The strong dollar, along with the sharp grain rally over the last three weeks has hurt U.S. competitiveness on the global market.       

July 07, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 220
July 07, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 260

Grains Lower on Better than Expected Crop Conditions

Grains trading lower in the overnight session.

In the overnight session the grains are trading lower with corn down 6 3/4 cents, soybeans down 5 1/4 cents and wheat down 9 1/4 cents. The US dollar is trading nearly 1 percent higher and crude oil is up 8 cents.


Analysts were expecting corn good-to-excellent ratings to decline by 1 percent and for soybean ratings to decline by 2 percent early yesterday. However, the crop progress report showed that corn conditions are slightly better than expected at 69 percent good-to-excellent which was a one percent improvement from the previous week. Soybean conditions held steady at 63 percent good-to-excellent which was unchanged on the week.


Soybean plantings increased 2 percent to 96 percent planted this week after rains disrupted any real opportunity to plant in Missouri last week. Missouri is now 73 percent planted. Winter wheat conditions showed a 1 percent increase this week but spring wheat conditions fell 2 percent this week.


Yesterday the export inspections report showed soybeans recorded 197,441 metric tons inspected which was within the analyst expectations which ranged from 125,000 to 275,000 metric tons. Corn inspections was reported at 839,324 metric tons which missed analyst expectations and wheat recorded 368,818 metric tons inspected for export this week which was within the range of expectations.  


Weather doesn’t look to favorable for the later parts of this week. Rain is expected in the forecast for the eastern, central and southwestern areas over the next few days which will continue to add stress to already saturated fields. 

July 06, 2015 | | Views: 442
July 06, 2015 | Cody Bills | Views: 180

Grains Sink on Greece Vote and Rain Reprieve

Grain markets came back from the holiday weekend in a selling mood with soybeans off 20 cents, wheat off 15 cents and corn down 10 cents.

Global markets were generally sour overnight following the election results in Greece where voters there shunned the EU & IMF bailout deal. Greek banks are said to be running out of cash and facing the danger of collapse within days without new aid. Amidst this uncertainty, equity markets in the US were sharply lower overnight as was oil while the dollar was up on a flight to stability.

Over the weekend, weather was more benign than expected going into the weekend as rain accumulations in flooded areas were limited.  However, over the next two days storms are expected to bring more rain to Missouri and the Southern parts of IL/IN/OH where flooding has been most problematic. After the close of trading today, USDA will announce the latest crop condition scores and traders expect another drop in crop conditions.


Internationally, France found a bit of relief from the dry heat wave over the weekend with cooler temps and some modest precipitation. However, Western Europe is still expected to be dry for the next 10 days despite the break in heat. On the Canadian prairies, they too found some relief over the weekend from scorching temperatures but there is little change in the outlook which points to a continuation of the heat wave and dry conditions that have plagued the region in the past month. 

July 02, 2015 | Cody Bills | Views: 282
July 02, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 194

Soybean Cancellations

Soybean sales missed export sales expectations showing net cancellations on the week.

In the overnight session the grains traded lower with corn down 2 1/4 cents, soybeans down 8 3/4 cents and wheat down 9 1/2 cents this morning. Crude oil is trading up 25 cents and the U.S. dollar is down nearly a quarter of a percent.


On Wednesday, the EIA ethanol production report showed a weekly decline of 26,000 barrels per day to 968,000 barrels per day. Weekly production was 15,000 barrels per day above last year’s pace and well above the four year average of 898,000 barrels per day. This year’s production is 4.6 percent above last year’s levels. Ethanol stocks fell 308,000 barrels this week to 19.532 million barrels.


Old crop corn sales showed 594,300 metric tons was booked last week, up 20 percent from the previous week and on the high side of analyst expectations which ranged from 300,000 to 600,000 metric tons. New crop sales met expectations by booking 238,900 metric tons this week. Soybean sales disappointed analysts with net reductions by 10,300 metric tons, well below what analysts were expecting which ranged from 100,000 to 200,000 metric tons. New crop soybean sales were also light, booking 127,500 metric tons this week.  Wheat sales met expectations booking 363,900 metric tons.

July 01, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 301

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