July 05, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 307
July 05, 2016 | | Views: 546
July 05, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 299

Grains Expected to Open Lower

Crude Oil was Off Sharply to Start the Week

Grains will open at 8:30 am CDT this morning following the long 4th of July holiday weekend in the US.

 

Grains are expected to open lower as weather forecasts continue to be favorable. There is a good chance of rain through Thursday that is expected to bring additional relief to much of the corn belt, with 6 to 15 day rains favoring the northwest Midwest. Parts of southeast Iowa/far west-central Illinois/far northeast Missouri/Michigan/northern Ohio and areas near the Nebraska/Kansas border (15 to 20% of the Midwest) appear at most risk to see rain deficits build further, but the timely rains occurring in other spots and a lack of severe heat will aid pollinating corn.

 

The 16 to 30 day outlook has trended cooler since Friday (particularly in the western Midwest), with potential dry spots focusing on parts of the eastern Midwest. While patchy showers are possible in the Delta soy areas (mainly in the 6 to 10 day), dryness is expected to build in parts of Arkansas/Mississippi/Louisiana, and hot temperatures will raise concerns for soy stress to increase. Rains continue to limit dry spots for U.S./Canada spring wheat.

 

On Friday, USDA reported May soybean crush at 160.8 MB, that was below pre-report estimates of 162.5.

 

Crude oil was off sharply to start the week as concerns about global economic growth weighed on the market. Data on China’s economy later this week is expected to show a slowdown, and continued fears over Britain’s exit from the EU continue to keep traders on the defensive. On Friday, the Baker Hughes rig count was up 11 to 341 rigs in operation. This is off the low of 316 set back in late May.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 01, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 315

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 07/01/2016

National basis levels were up across the country this week with Ethanol plants leading the rise higher.

 

Even with another strong week of ethanol production and a large supply of stocks, we saw plant basis rise almost 5.88 cents. Corn river basis followed closely with an increase of 5.5 cents. Overall Corn basis rose a little more than 4 cents this week.

 

National soybean basis closed higher as well. Basis along the river saw the largest increase closing 2.5 cents higher. Soybean crushing facilities saw a relatively small basis increase of 1.6 cents.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 01, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 240

Grains Dip Lower in the Overnight

US Dollar and Crude also moves lower

Grains dipped lower overnight with soybeans and wheat giving up 4 cents while corn was off 1. In outside markets, the US dollar and crude oil moved lower while equities were mostly unchanged.

 

Yesterday’s USDA report was bearish for corn with acreage and stocks coming in above expectations. Planted corn acres of 94.1 million topped the high end of analyst expectations which ranged from 92.0-94.0 going into the report and well above 92.9 that was expected. Likewise, quarterly stocks came in at 4.72 billion bushels, outside of expectations ranging from 4.43-4.65.

 

For soybeans, acreage was slightly lighter than expected at 83.7 versus expectations of 83.8. However, many analysts were looking for better than 84 million acres which may have led to some short covering after the report. Stocks were higher than expected at 0.87 billion bushels versus 0.83.

 

In wheat, stocks numbers were in line for the end of the marketing year and not surprising to the trade, coming in at 0.98 billion bushels. But, acreage projections were 1 million more than expected at 50.8 million versus 49.8 expected.

 

Today will be the last trade until July 5th. At noon CDT USDA May crush figures will be released with expectations at 162.5 MB.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 309
June 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 254

USDA Report out Today at 11 a.m.

Crude Oil was off sharply in the Overnight Session

Grains were mostly quiet overnight awaiting direction from USDA’s reports out at 11 am CDT today. In outside markets, crude oil was off sharply, but equities and the US dollar had modest losses going into the morning session.

 

Traders will be watching the stocks and acreage figures from USDA later this morning for guidance. Analysts’ averages suggest a decline in corn acres by 700,000 acres over USDA’s official March estimate while soybean acres are expected to climb 1.6 million.

 

This morning, Stats Canada said farmers there would plant 23.2 million acres of wheat, off from last year’s plantings of 24.1. For canola, farmers are expected to hold steady on the year, planting 20.0 million acres versus 20.1 last year.

 

Also this morning, USDA released a flash sale announcement of 120,400 MT of corn that was sold to Mexico  for 2016/17 and 2017/18 crop years. Weekly sales were disappointing for corn, but robust for soybeans and wheat.


WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

                     Act-OC       Exp-OC         Act-NC        Exp-NC

Corn                 468       700-1,000          536         300-450

Soybeans          730         500-800           798         600-800

Wheat                                                   645         300-600

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 29, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 309

Soybeans Retreat in the Overnight

Grains were mixed to close the Overnight Session with Corn and Beans trading lower

The grains were mixed to close the overnight with corn and soybeans trading lower and the wheats up a little more than a penny.


In overnight news, Romania is on track for another record year of wheat production 8.28 million tonnes. This is 4.5 percent higher than a record set just last year.

U.S. soybeans fell on Wednesday, retreating from Tuesday's one-week high on expectations the USDA will estimate U.S. farmers have increased soybean sowings for this year's crop.  Corn was supported by the view that U.S. farmers may have reduced corn sowings to switch into soybeans and by concern that expected hot weather could stress U.S. crops. Wheat recovered on buying interest after recent weakness.

Mexico is primed to overtake Japan as the single largest U.S. corn importer, knocking Tokyo from the perch it has occupied since the mid-1980s and taking the top spot for the first time ever. Despite a three-month buying flurry, Japan remains on pace to buy its second-smallest U.S. corn volume since at least 1999.

The 6-10 day weather outlook continues to trend warmer. However, there are chances that there will be a wetter holiday weekend with scattered rains in spots throughout Kansas, Missouri, and southern Illinois. The 16 to 30 day rains are forecast to favor the northwest Midwest, with the northeast 1/3 of the corn belt at most risk for heat/moisture stress to pollinating corn in late July.
 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 28, 2016 | | Views: 384
June 28, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 255

Grains Turn Higher Overnight

Outside markets are also reversing course

Grains turned higher overnight and finished the morning trade solidly higher. Outside markets were also reversing course from the two-day hammering they took post-Brexit.

 

On Monday after the close, USDA’s crop progress report showed the US corn crop holding firm at 75% good-to-excellent, unchanged from last week, while soybean conditions slipped to 72% this week versus 73% last week. Winter wheat harvest was speeding along with 45% of the crop cut versus 25% last week.

 

In overnight news, Egypt said they had enough wheat in their strategic reserves to last until January 2017 and that they have bought 5 MMT from local farmers, more than the 4 MMT they expected to get this season.

 

For weather, the 6 to 15 day has trended warmer, with mid 90s or better mainly focusing on the Plains, Delta, and southwest Midwest. Some models are looking for 100s late in the 6 to 10 day into the heart of the corn belt but other models don't. Longer-term forecasts out a month show warm weather in the corn belt, with the biggest risks in the northeast 1/3 of the belt.

 

U.S. stock index futures rose sharply on Tuesday as investors rushed to pick up Brexit-hit stocks after Wall Street crumbled under fear and uncertainty to its worst two-day fall in 10 months. Crude oil was also up sharply trying to recover from steep losses while the US dollar reversed course to trade lower.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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