September 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 171

Beans Find Strength Overnight

Beans Find Strength Overnight

Grains posted solid gains overnight with soybeans advancing 10 cents in the night session.

 

On Tuesday, USDA’s crop progress report showed corn condition slipped 1% on the week to 74% good to excellent. The crop is rated as 18% mature versus 9% last week. In soybeans, crop condition held steady at 73%. Next week should bring the first report on US corn harvest from USDA.

 

Overnight, the Taiwan Flour Millers' Association issued an international tender to purchase 87,900 MT of U.S.-origin grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States. The results of a tender by Algeria are expected later today as they are in the market for soft-milling wheat.

 

This morning Stats Canada released stocks forecasts for wheat and canola. Canada’s wheat stocks were pegged at 5.17 MMT on July 31, down from 7.05 MMT a year ago. Traders had expected 4.29 MMT of stocks. Meanwhile, canola stocks were at 2.02 MMT, off of last year’s inventory of 2.54 MMT but higher than average expectations of 1.27 MMT.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 06, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 236
September 06, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 201

Grains Start The Week on a Down Note

Crude Oil is Bolstered by News of a Supply Deal

Grains started the week on a down note as the rally at the end of the week met with selling pressure overnight. In outside markets, crude oil was bolstered by news of a potential supply deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia.

 

On Friday, FCStone raised its forecast of the average U.S. 2016 corn yield to 175.6 bushels per acre, which would be a record high if realized, from 175.0 in its previous monthly report and above USDA’s August forecast of 175.1. It also raised its forecast of the U.S. 2016 soybean yield to a record 50.1 bpa, up from its August figure of 48.8.

For wheat, there was additional pressure following as Egypt's health ministry stated they will no longer accept any trace levels of ergot on inspection of imported wheat shipments.Egypt's state grain buyer GASC cancelled its wheat tender last week after receiving just one offer after the country invoked its zero-tolerance ergot policy. Russia's IKAR agriculture consultancy said on Tuesday it had upgraded its forecast for Russia's 2016 wheat crop by 2 MMT to 72 MMT.


In China, the country's top grain province is offering farmers subsidies to rotate corn with soybeans, as it seeks to cut corn output amid huge oversupply. But observers noted that China's planned rise in soybean output would only meet a small part of demand.

 

Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Monday to cooperate in world oil markets, saying they will not act immediately but could limit output in the future, sending prices higher on hopes the two top oil producers would work together to tackle a global glut. Even if the Monday statement was short on action, it marks a significant development in the Russia-Saudi relationship. The two countries have been effectively on opposing sides of the war in Syria, while Moscow is an ally of Iran, an important rival to Saudi Arabia.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 02, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 265

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 09/02/2016

Grain basis took a sharp turn lower to start September.

 

On average, corn lost one and a half cents to close the week. Ethanol followed behind losing almost a quarter cent. Ethanol stocks gained another 109,000 barrels bringing the total to 20.93 million barrels. Production was off by about 5,000 barrels per day with production holding steady around 1 million barrels per day. Corn along the river was the biggest loser off six and a half cents per bushel.

 

Basis levels for soybeans were especially weak as September started. This is typical for this time of year as old- and new-crop deliveries begin to merge. On average, soybean basis was off eight cents per bushel. Crush facilities saw decreases of three cents. Soybean facilities along the river were the biggest movers this week off an average of sixteen cents per bushel.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 02, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 234

July Soybean Crush above Expectations

Grains Find Strength 2nd Day in a Row

Grains found strength for the 2nd day in a row as short covering after a steep slide continues to help lift prices. In outside markets, US jobs grew at a slower rate than expected, pushing the US dollar lower.

 

USDA’s industrial grain use reports were released yesterday after the close. For soybeans, July crush was at 153.4 MB, just slightly above average expectations going into the report. For corn,
USDA estimated fuel alcohol use of corn at 455.4 MB, up from 448.4 MB a year ago.

 

In India, low stocks of wheat are likely to drive the country to buy wheat in the global market. So far in 2016 they have bought 600,000 MT of wheat, the most in nine years. The last time it bought more was in 2006, when surprise purchases of close to 7 million tonnes, combined with production problems elsewhere, helped fuel a near 50 percent rally in global prices. There is some speculation that the government may reduce or eliminate the 25% wheat import tariff.

 

August jobs data showed payroll numbers rose by 151,000, below forecasts of 180,000 and the July number of 275,000. This may push Fed interest rate hikes down the road as job growth is expected to be a key indicator for /near-term Fed interest rate policies.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

September 01, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 253
September 01, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 244

Grains In Positive Territory This Morning

...but continue to struggle with bearish fundamentals

Grains were in positive territory to start the day but continue to struggle with bearish fundamentals.

 

This morning’s USDA export sales report was a mixed bag and will likely do little to stem the wave of selling. New-crop corn sales were disappointing coming in at only 647,000 MT, below expectations ranging from 700-1,100,000 MT. Wheat sales were also sub par at only 279,000 off of expectations ranging from 300-600,000 MT.

 

In overnight news, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture bought a total of 144,385 tonnes of food quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed late on Thursday.

 

After the close today, USDA will report monthly soybean crushings. That report is expected to show 4.596 million short tons, or 153.2 million bushels, of soybeans were processed in July. The estimates ranged from 152.5 million to 154.2 million bushels. The median forecast was 153.1 million bushels.

 

Gains in Europe helped pull world shares out their longest losing streak of the year on Thursday, as oil prices ticked up before key U.S. jobs data. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report remains this week's market focus, after Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said last week the jobs data will be a factor in the timing of central bank interest rate hikes.


 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

                             OC-Act      OC-Exp            NC-Act       NC-Exp

Corn                         214      -100-150               647       700-1,100

Soybeans                  107      -150-200            1,476     1,100-1,600

Wheat                                                             279         300-600

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 31, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 227
August 31, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 179

Soybeans Continue their Slide

US Dollar continues it's recovery

Soybeans slid for a seventh consecutive session to trade close to last session's four-week low as the U.S. crop matures in ideal growing conditions. Corn and wheat were mixed in directionless trade. In outside markets, the US dollar continued its recovery reaching its highest mark in 3 weeks.

 

This morning the USDA released new export deals with 187,000 MT of soybeans to China, 275,000 MT of corn to Mexico, and as rare wheat deal for HRW of 138,000 MT to unknown destinations.

 

Egypt's state grains buyer GASC received very low participation by trading companies in an international tender to purchase wheat on Wednesday as changing quality rules about the ergot fungus caused uncertainty. Only one trading company was said to have participated in the tender on Wednesday. GASC had earlier on Wednesday said it would only accept wheat with a zero content level of the controversial fungus ergot, which traders say is almost impossible to achieve in wheat in big volumes.

 

Basis levels especially for spot beans are starting to weaken as prices between old- and new-crop delivery begin to merge. With first notice day in Sep corn, many buyers rolled bids to Dec and kept basis levels fairly steady on the roll, although there is some delivery pressure as 440 corn contracts were delivered on for first notice day.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 204

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