February 01, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 103
February 01, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 204

Soybeans Continue to Trade Down

Grain Markets in Negative Territory

Grain markets were in negative territory to start the day as soybeans continue to trade down to its recent low in the $10.20 area, off 60 cents from its high 2 weeks ago. In outside markets, the US dollar was trying to recover some of yesterday’s sharp losses while crude oil was higher.

 

USDA reported a 236,700 MT sale of soybeans to unknown destinations, of which 170,700 is old-crop.

 

Rains overnight in Argentina came in better than expected with some areas of the South and West getting 2 inches of precipitation. Other areas of Argentina are expected to see rains starting Thursday and heading into the weekend. In Brazil, rains are expected to bring widespread coverage over the next few weeks including to the dry sections of the NE.

 

In soybeans, managed money is still thought to be heavily long with an  expected 156K contracts to the buy side, down only 20K from the CFTC report on Friday.

 

The EU lowered their carry-out estimates for corn thanks to a surge in corn use for ethanol. The Commission found more corn going into ethanol production as opposed to wheat.

The line-up of vessels expected to load soybeans at Brazilian ports over the next month shows a spike in shipments to around twice the level of a year ago due to a speedy harvest and strong global demand. Port schedules suggest around 4.39 million tonnes of soybean exports in February and early March, 97 percent more than a year ago.

 

Crude oil will look for direction from EIA inventory data which is expected to show a 3.3 million barrel build on the week versus last week’s 2.84 million barrel build. The last 3 weeks have seen stocks come in higher than expected.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)\

January 31, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 129
January 31, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 203

US Export Competitiveness Sinking

US Export Competitiveness Sinking

Grains consolidated overnight following yesterday’s sharp losses in soybeans. In outside markets, the US Dollar was weaker and equity futures continued their slump.

 

Soybeans got hit hard on Monday giving up 25 cents as traders bank on good crops in South America. Argentina will see showers in the south late today and Wednesday, with the north part of the country seeing rains Friday and Saturday. Rain totals of 1 to 3” are expected to benefit yield potential. In Brazil, yesterday saw scattered showers in Center-West/Center-South Brazil but over the next 2 weeks there should be wider coverage to benefit the crops. The dry areas of NE Brazil see brief showers by 11-15 day to ease dryness temporarily.

Japan's Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 108,442 tonnes of food quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

 

The euro jumped against the dollar on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump's trade advisor told the Financial Times that Germany was benefiting from a "grossly undervalued" euro. The euro climbed after the comments, reaching a five-day high and knocking the .DXY dollar index down 0.4 percent to below 100 for the first time in five days.

 

January 30, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 239
January 30, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 179

Beans Sell off Sharply to Start the Week

Beans Selloff Sharply to Start the Week

Beans Sell off Sharply to Start the Week

Soybeans were sharply lower overnight posting double-digit losses to start the week. Corn and wheat showed more modest losses of 3 cents ahead of the morning break. In outside markets, equity futures were in negative territory and the US Dollar higher.

 

USDA announced a 105,000 MT sale of corn to Columbia.

 

Brazil saw some rain over the weekend but dry conditions later this week and into next week in center west crop areas should help speed along early harvest there. Northeastern Brazil will get rain late this week through much of next week favoring some relief from recent dryness.

Argentina was dry during the weekend, but timely rain will fall later this week through next week. The recent dry spell has depleted topsoil moisture, but rain late this week will be timely and sufficient enough to prevent any long term stress.
 

On Friday, USDA reported cattle on feed numbers higher than expected with December at 100% of the same month last year vs 99% expected by the trade. More problematic was the 118% placement number vs 108.4% expected. This will likely pressure back months going into today’s cattle open.


Also on Friday Japan's Ministry of Agriculture bought a total of 110,687 tonnes of food quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed late on Friday, 60,000 MT of the deal going to the US.

January 27, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 116
January 27, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 166

Grains Drift Lower on SA Crop Potential

Grains Drift Lower on SA Crop Potential

Grains drifted lower for much of the night but were managing a late-session rally heading into the break. In outside markets, the US dollar was higher and crude oil lower.

 

Front-month March soybean futures sunk to fresh lows on this move of $10.43 and well off its highs of $10.80 established on Jan 18th. Easing concerns about flood issues in Argentina have helped in the pull back. Yesterday Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projected the bean crop there at 53.5 MMT at the high end of estimates floating around by private forecasters which have ranged from 51 to 54 MMT over the past week.

 

Corn has also moved this week as US-Mexico relations become stymied in a war of words about the US wall and potential trade restrictions. After Mexican President Nieto canceled his trip to the US, President Trump said the US would impose 20% tariffs on all Mexican imports to pay for the wall. This year so far Mexico is the single biggest buyer of US corn accounting for 10 MMT in sales of the total 39 MMT that has been purchased.

 

In Russia cold weather is expected to hit parts of the wheat crop there from Jan 27-Feb 4. Temperatures are expected to hit the low teens during this time period and there is no snow for protection with nearly 1 million hectares out of 17.4 million hectares of the crop. Jordan is seeking 25,000 MT of milling wheat.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

January 26, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 120
January 26, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 174

Wheat Exports Best this Year

Wheat sales come in at marketing year high

Wheat Exports Best this Year

Grains continued to drift lower overnight but got late-session buying interest from new export sales data. Outside markets saw the dollar reverse course early this morning and move into positive territory as did crude oil.

 

Egypt's state grain buyer GASC received offers from 13 suppliers at its wheat tender on Thursday. The lowest offer was for 60,000 tonnes of Russian wheat at $192.25/ MT (FOB). There was also a US HRW offer made at $197. Results for the tender are due later on Thursday.

 

A group of Israeli private buyers bought corn and feed wheat, all to be sourced from optional origins, in a tender that closed on Wednesday. Ton The tender had sought up to 85,000 tonnes of corn, 40,000 tonnes of feed wheat.

 

Soybeans took another shot at the $10.51 mark on the March contract marking the third session in a row the market has gone to that level but found little selling strength to push it thru.

 

US export sales this morning were impressive for wheat, with a marketing year high of 853,400 MT for the week for OC plus another 103,900 NC. Corn was also strong besting expectations by a wide margin while soybeans was inline with expectations.

 

Weekly Export Sales-

  Actual Expected
Corn 1,391 700-1,000
Soy 665 450-650
Wheat 957 200-400


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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