March 14, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 148
March 14, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 156

US Soybean Prices Drop below $10 a Bushel to Hit 2-Month Low

The US Department of Agriculture believes South America is on the verge of harvesting a monster corn crop

Corn fell on high corn plantings while wheat prices edged lower on welcome rain forecasts.


Exporters sell 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2017/2018 marketing year. -USDA


US soybean prices dropped below $10 a bushel to hit a two-month low on Tuesday, dragged down by expectations of record South American production in a global market that is already amply supplied. Increased SA production comes as US farmers are expected to plant more soybeans next season, adding to global inventories. Private analytics firm Informa Economics raised its 2017 US soybean plantings forecast to 88.7 million acres, from 88.647 million in January.


The US Department of Agriculture believes South America is on the verge of harvesting a monster corn crop, but the agency’s past prediction tendencies suggest that the record targets it has set could still be too low.


Last Thursday, USDA revised its forecast for 2016/17 Brazil corn output to 91.5 million tonnes, some 6 percent greater than last month’s figure. The US agency also increased the Argentine crop to 37.5 million tonnes, a 3 percent rise from February.  This may not be the best news for corn bulls, as Chicago prices have been feeling pressure in the face of the likely record world corn supply this year. The world will look to Brazil and Argentina to supply 37 percent of world corn trade this year.


The dollar rose before the start on Tuesday of a Federal Reserve policy meeting expected to raise US interest rates.  The Dollar Index which measures the dollar against six other major currencies, rose 0.3 percent. A Fed rate rise on Wednesday is seen as all but certain and investors will focus on new economic forecasts and any clues to how many rate hikes can be expected this year. While higher rates would raise companies’ costs, they are also seen as evidence of economic recovery.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 13, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 143

US Soybean Prices on Monday Inch away from Two-Month Lows

An event packed week for global markets gets underway

US soybean prices on Monday inched away from two-month lows touched in the previous session, though gains were checked by forecasts of ample South American supply. Corn prices were flat after hitting a three-week low the session before, while wheat was largely unchanged.


Exporters sell 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.


China’s wheat imports are expected to rise to 4.5 million tonnes in the year to June 2017 from 3.48 million tonnes previously as lower production and the poor quality of the domestic crop boost demand. Wheat production in China, the world’s top consumer of the grain, is estimated to decline to 129 million tonnes during the year from 130.19 million in the prior period. The USDA has estimated China’s wheat imports during the year at 4 million tonnes.


Weekend rain in Brazil favored C Mato Grosso. Localized wetness concerns for RGDS soy/rice harvest areas, but dry the next 10 days except for showers on Thursday. Weekend rains limited to N & SE fringes of Argentina northern ¼ of corn/soy the next 10 days; favorable early harvest. Return of Arg. rains in the 11-15 & 16-30 day outlook (mainly west) will slow fieldwork at times, but no signs of severe wetness.

An event-packed week for global markets got underway on Monday with stocks steady and the dollar recovering from a three-day fall as investors braced for a potential interest hike in the US, a Dutch election and the first G20 finance ministers’ meeting of the Trump era.


The world’s most powerful finance ministers and central bankers convene in the German town of Baden-Baden on March 17-18, their first meeting since Donald Trump’s US election victory in November where his protectionist stance on international trade is likely to be a key issue.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 10, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 134
March 10, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 123

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for Week Ending 03/10/2017

Weekly Cash Comments

Grain basis levels were mostly stagnant this week even with the sharp sell-off on the board. For the week, US average corn basis was mostly unchanged while the US average soybean basis inched up by 1 cent a bushel.

Processors continue to show very little interest in bidding up basis levels, although this week did bring some modest movement to bean basis at crush facilities as collectively they raised their bids by 1.4 cents. But, ethanol plants were less inclined to move it higher, showing only a modest 0.4 cent advance.






-0.1 C

+1.2 C


+0.4 C

+1.4 C


-2.8 C

-2.0 C


For river terminals, there was some noticeable weakness for both corn and soybeans. Corn basis at river terminals was off 2.8 cents on the week, while soybean basis was down 2 cents.

Seasonal patterns for corn basis continue to show processors running well below normal for this time of year. Current basis levels are about 20-cents a bushel below the 7-year average basis for ethanol plants. However, river terminals continue to be mostly on par with basis levels for this time of year.


For beans, crush facilities are running nearly 40-cents below their normal basis for this time of year while river terminals are about 20-cents below. Look for river basis to improve steadily heading into May 1. Also, slow farmer selling in April will likely be the norm which should give an added boost to basis levels helping to push them higher.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 10, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 200

Grains Continue their Sell Off

US Jobs Report Out this AM

Grains continued to sell-off over night with soybeans again leading the complex down. In outside markets, a positive US jobs report this morning helped push equity futures higher higher.


After holding pat on Brazil’s production forecasts for the past several months, USDA finally bumped their production forecasts higher in yesterday’s report and in the case of corn, USDA came in well above expectations with a crop of 91.5 MMT vs 87.7 expected. For soybeans, they came in at 108.0 vs 105.9 expected.


The market seems to be reaching a critical mass as fundamentals are getting more bearish while the technical chart picture is turning decidedly negative. Dec Corn breaking below $3.90 gives a new target of $3.76 from the double-top formation on the charts established from the $4.04 highs. Likewise, Nov beans have a triple top of the $10.33 highs with a close below $10 signalling a move to the $9.70 area.


This morning’s US jobs report showed more bullish news for the economy as 227,000 jobs were added in February. That was well above expectations of 193,000 jobs.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 09, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 54
March 09, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 167

USDA Supply and Demand Report out Today at 11am CST

Grains Continue to sink lower

Ahead of USDA’s crop report, grains continued to sink lower with soybeans trading below $10.17 for the first time since Feb 27. In outside markets, crude oil was on a $5 downside beating in the last two days thanks to a huge build in crude stocks over the last week.


USDA reported a 120,000 MT of corn sales to Japan.


Brazil's agricultural statistics agency Conab on Thursday raised to 107.6 MMT its estimate for the country's 2016/17 soybean crop, up 2 MMT from its previous forecast. The agency said corn output in the season should reach 88.9 MMT, compared to 87.4 MMT estimated last month, as favorable weather for grains production continue to boost crop prospects.


In overnight news, a South Korea feed group was in the market for 66,000 MT which may come from optional origin sources. Saudi Arabia was looking to buy 720,000 MT of hard wheat. No origins were specified but it is thought EU origins might have an inside track to the business.

USDA’s supply and demand report will be out at 11 am CDT and is not expected to change the tone of traders attitudes. Attention will focus on SA crop projections with the trade looking for a bump higher in Brazil’s corn and bean estimates. This morning’s export sales report was mostly in line with expectations, which are nothing impressive on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Fresh export business continues to be light. Meanwhile spot basis at river terminals took a fairly substantial hit yesterday. Corn basis at river terminals across 87 buyers tracked by Grain Hedge fall a collective 3 cents a bushel yesterday. Soybean basis was a bit weaker at IL river terminals. Corn plants were mixed  with 12 plants raising their basis yesterday, 9 dropping their basis and the remaining 121 plants holding steady. For soy crushing plants 4 out of 52 plants raised their basis yesterday.


Weekly Export Sales-




Wheat - OC



Wheat - NC



Corn - OC



Corn - NC










The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 08, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 403
March 08, 2017 | Editor's View | Elise Schafer | Views: 404

One Week Left to Add Your Facility to List of Exporters to China!

Let AFIA know by March 15 if your company exports or wishes to export to China

One Week Left to Add Your Facility to List of Exporters to China!

Attention all feed additives or feed premix exporters! If you are currently exporting or wish to export products to China within the next five years, you must fill out this form (one for each facility), and email it to the American Feed Industry Association (AFIA) by March 15.

In 2009, the Chinese government released Decree 118, requiring all feed facilities exporting non-medicated feeds to China to register with their Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ).

According to Gina Tumbarello, AFIA’s director of international policy and trade, since there was no mechanism for facilities to register for export when the decree was announced, AQSIQ has been implementing protocols for facility registration by feed product groups since 2011. The Chinese agency is currently on the feed product group “feed additives and premixes.” As part of its process of establishing a protocol for feed facilities to become registered, China has requested from industry an all-inclusive list of U.S. facilities currently exporting and/or wishing to export feed additives and premixes to the country.

This facility list will be used to determine which facilities will participate in a visit by AQSIQ to a sampling of facilities, so they can determine a checklist of requirements for all U.S. facilities wishing to export feed additives or premixes to China.

Tumbarello said once the protocol is established for “feed additives” and “premixes,” from then on, all U.S. facilities wishing to export feed additives and/or premixes to China will have to follow this new protocol.

Once the protocol (checklist of requirements) is determined by AQSIQ, and is implemented, the facilities on the list originally provided to AQSIQ will be able to apply for facility registration for export of feed additives and premixes to China. If your facility is NOT included on AFIA’s initial facility list, the next opportunity to register your facility with AQSIQ may not be for several years. See AFIA's infographic below for a detailed explanation.

How can you ensure that your business with Chinese customers will not be interrupted? Simply follow these two steps:

  1. Complete the online form (one for each facility) and submit to Gina Tumbarello,, and
  2. Pay administrative fee* online, per facility
  • AFIA Member: $250 per facility
  • Non-member: $500 per facility

*This administrative fee will help AFIA offset the administrative expenses associated with AQSIQ’s travel to the U.S. to conduct the systems audit required to establish the protocol for U.S. facilities to obtain the facility registration that will be needed export feed additives/premixes to China.

NOTE: By completing the form, your facility will be included on the facility list for consideration by AQSIQ to obtain the required facility registration needed for export of feed additives and/or premixes to China. This will NOT automatically approve you or register your facility with China AQSIQ. However, as part of this process for consideration, your facility may be audited by China AQSIQ.

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Weekly Cash Comments

March 24, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew

Grain basis continued to show little upside life this week even with the ongoing slide in futures prices. For the week, spot corn basis across the country managed a 1.3 cent advance while soybean basis was up 0.8 cents a bushel.

[Read More]