November 04, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 300
November 03, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 358

Talk of Soymeal Imports Pressures Beans

Grains are drifting lower as trade chatter looks for Argentine meal to hit U.S. shores

Talk of Soymeal Imports Pressures Beans

Grain prices are moving lower in Chicago, with corn down 4, soybeans off 10 and Chicago wheat down 4 cents. We are past first notice day for November 2014 soybean contracts, please begin trading the January contract to avoid any issues with delivery.


Soymeal futures are trading down a percent in the early going on trade rumors that Argentine soymeal is U.S. bound following last week’s huge rally in price. Harvest is the last time we would expect soymeal imports, but the sharply inverted U.S. futures market has given domestic users the incentive to look abroad.


Northern Brazil received precipitation over the weekend but the trade remains concerns about output moving forward. Rainfall totals have been 30% behind normal during October, delaying planting and forcing some producers to replant. The 7 day outlook has turned a bit more dry over the weekend – we will continue to monitor the pace of planting in Mato Grasso. 


Several private analysts will be releasing their updated crop projections ahead of the November 10th USDA report. FC Stone will be out today and Informa will give their updated numbers later in the week. Grains have traded sharply higher over the last month with very little consideration for current 2014/15 ending stock estimates.

October 31, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 311
October 31, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 164

Grains Drifting Lower as Dollar Index Surges Higher

Grains are down slightly this morning while outside markets are very busy. Dollar sharply up while Crude and Gold off a percent or more.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat are continuing to drift lower in the overnight session. Coming into the morning trade break corn is down 2, wheat is off 5 cents, and soybeans are down 5 cents. Today is first notice day for November 14 futures, please roll all soybean positions to the January contract.


Soymeal is drifting lower to unchanged this morning in a relatively quiet trade. The CME Group has raised soymeal margins by 25% for speculators and hedgers effective today, leading some trading to believe a further retracement will be seen. Higher margins force traders to liquidate open positions or re-margin existing positions. Many longs in the market may opt to liquidate their positions after a huge run up since early October.


Beneficial rains are expected to hit Brazil today through Wednesday in the key growing state of Mato Grasso. These rains are much needed as dryness over the last 30 days has forced many producers to replant soybeans. The forecast has turned slightly dryer for the 2 week forecast, and we will continue to monitor any changes. Argentina corn is off to a great start as the key growing state of Cordoba has received a surplus of moisture over the last 30 days. 


The dollar index is surging another leg high this morning, trading up nearly a percent in the early going. FED comments on Wednesday got the rally started as the Federal Reserve announced plans to end their 6 year bond buying program. Gold and Crude Oil are both trading substantially lower, gold down 3% while crude is off a percent and a half.

October 30, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 293

Grains Finally Find Selling Pressure

The grain market finally found selling pressure after yesterday's big run up. Today we discuss what was moving the market and how basis is responding to the big gains on the board.

October 29, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 355

Markets Push Sharply Higher

Tune in to see Cody and Logan discuss the rally in corn, soybeans and wheat today. Cody and Logan discuss the soybean meal situation, talk about the next resistance levels for corn/soybeans and discuss export sales expectations for tomorrows report.

Markets Push Sharply Higher
October 29, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 214

Soybean Meal Continues Higher in the Overnight

The grains traded higher in the overnight again, led higher by continued strength out of soybean meal.

In the overnight session the grain inched higher with corn up 2 ¾ cents, soybeans up 5 ½ cents and wheat up 4 ¼ cents going into the pause in trade this morning.


Brazil’s key growing states are expected to receive much needed precipitation Thursday through next Tuesday. Mato Grasso was well behind normal rain fall totals in recent weeks but the upcoming rain event is expected to mitigate dry conditions.  Argentina is also expected to receive rain in the coming week, with most rain events likely today and into the weekend. South American growing conditions will begin to be a larger focus for traders as this year’s U.S. crop is put into the bin.


Soybean meal is trading higher this morning, up another 1.15% going into the morning pause. Soybean Meal has been the leader to the upside since the beginning of October increasing from $300 per ton to $379 per ton this morning. The soybean meal spread has inverted since October 1st showing that supply concerns for soybean meal delivered in December has become a big concern. Prices for soybean meal have traded as high as $399.8 per ton yesterday as strong meal exports combined with the slower than normal harvest, rail issues and less active farmer selling has slowed pressured the cash soybean meal market domestically. 

October 28, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 312

Surging Soymeal Boosts Soybean Futures

Soybeans again had a volatile trade day in Chicago. Today we discuss the move, what is going on in soymeal prices, and what the technicals for corn look like.

October 28, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 161

Soybean Surge Continues

Soybeans moved another 12 cents higher overnight after a strong Monday

Corn, soybeans and wheat have continued to move higher following yesterday’s technical breakout for soybeans. Coming into the morning trade break soybeans is up 15 cents, wheat is up 7 cents, and corn is up. A surging spot soymeal market as contributed to strength out of soybeans. Just in the last two days the December soymeal contract has broken out and rallied nearly 10%. 


The talk regarding wheat this morning seems generally favorable for prices as concern about Australia’s 14/15 wheat production falling as much as 5 percent due to unfavorable weather in key growing regions. We also saw some demand for domestic wheat this morning when the Taiwan Flour Millers association purchased 41,250 metric tons of U.S milling wheat. Heavy purchasing of feed wheat by the Iranian government has caused demand to rise for feed grains. Over the last week Iran has purchased 60,000 tons of animal feed barley from the Black Sea region.  


Yesterday’s crop progress report showed sizeable harvest improvements across the grain belt. 46% of U.S. corn is now harvested, just edging out expectations for 45% in this week’s report. Soybeans was right in line with trade expectations at 70% harvested.

October 24, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 263

Markets Retrace Yesterday’s Gains

The grain markets moved lower on Friday as corn and wheat touched key resistance levels. Talk of a poor start to Russian winter wheat will keep traders focused on weather conditions in Russia as wheat enters dormancy.

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November 21, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills

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Grains Mixed in the Overnight

November 21, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills

In the overnight session corn traded down 1 ½ cents, soybeans traded up 5 ¾ cents and wheat in Chicago traded down 2 ½ cents. Keep in mind that today is the LAST TRADE FOR DECEMBER OPTIONS.


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