July 20, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 419

Export Sales for the Week were All on the High Side of Expectations

Corn and Beans Modestly Higher in the Overnight Session

Corn and beans were modestly higher overnight with wheat trying pare losses going into the morning break.

 

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The weather continues to point to areas of stress in the coming weeks. Although dry parts of SD and E IA are a concern, there is a modest rain event the remainder of this week, but it will not likely be enough to seriously bolster soil moisture in the driest areas. For next week, there is a brief period of cooling expected in the Plains and WCB before heat returns as the major theme in the forecast thru the first week in August.

 

In Brazil, two consecutive days of frost in Paraná have damaged wheat crops in the western area of the Brazilian state, the government's rural economics agency Deral said on Wednesday.

Export sales for the week were all on the high side of expectations with soybeans showing solid new-crop business on a big purchase by China.

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat - NC

669

250-450

Corn - OC

466

150-350

Corn - NC

212

200-400

Soybeans - OC

410

100-300

Soybeans - NC

1,522

1300-1800


 

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July 19, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 261

10 Day Outlook Shows High Temps for US Central Plains

US Dollar Index Hovered around 10 Month Lows

Corn and beans posted modest gains overnight, while wheat drifted fractionally lower.

 

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The next 10 days look to be hot for the US Central Plains as high temps in NE/KS/SD will consistently be in the upper 90s and low 100s. For IA, it will be on the fringe of the heatwave with Western reaches of the state seeing upper 90s, while the Eastern part of the state will hover below 90 for the 10-day period. Rainfall is also expected to be limited in these areas with only 1 to 1.5 inches expected over the next two weeks.

 

Egypt’s GASC bought 200,000 MT of wheat with the deal going to Russia, Romania and French suppliers. The Taiwan Flour Millers Association bought 105,000 MT of milling wheat from the US. In Russia, wheat harvest continues to move along with yields reportedly higher than last year.

The US Dollar index hovered around 10-month lows. The dollar has come under pressure as Republican legislators' failure to pass a stalled healthcare bill raised fears for the rest of President Donald's Trump reform agenda.

 

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July 18, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 186
July 18, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 141

NOPA Crush Numbers were Disappointing for month of June

Grains Posted Double-Digit Gains in the Overnight

Grains posted double-digit gains in the overnight thanks to renewed fears about the crop conditions.

 

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After the close on Monday, USDA reported corn conditions were 1% to 64% good-to-excellent. There were noticeable declines in Iowa, North Dakota
and South Dakota which were 6 to 7% lower, while Kentucky, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kansas and Wisconsin were each down 2 to 3%. Corn is silking is at 40% vs 53% this time last year. Bean conditions were off 1% to 61% G&E, and like corn, going through the state by state there was a lot of variability. North Dakota was off 7%; Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina and South Dakota were each off 4 to 5% and Nebraska, Ohio and Wisconsin were each off 3%.
 

Yesterday, NOPA crush numbers were disappointing for the month of June with soybean crush at 138 versus 143 expected. YTD NOPA crush for the 2016 marketing year is on par with the 2015 mark, but USDA expects a 0.7% higher crush in their 2016/17 marketing year projections. With two months left in the year we will need to see a ramp-up in production to meet the forecast as the last 3-months have averaged 4.2% below last year’s mark.

Overnight rainfall was observed in E SD, parts of NE and MN. Highs in the 100s were confined to central SD. The next 4 days should see 100 degree temps in NE, KS, SD  but much of the WCB will only see mid-90s.  Precip in the next 14 days is expected to total less than inch of rain in NE, SD, ND and IA.

 

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July 17, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 123

Grains Shrugged off Steep Losses on Sunday

NOPA Soybean Crush Numbers out later this morning

Grains shrugged off steep losses on Sunday to go into the morning break with some upside momentum.

 

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Rains over the weekend in Western North Dakota and Eastern Montana provided minor relief with totals of less than a 0.5” over the region. Looking ahead, U.S. Midwest temperatures will be very warm today and Monday, but cooling is expected from north to south during mid- to late week with the far southwestern Corn Belt staying very warm most of the week. Some short term relief to dry and warm weather is possible in the far southwestern Corn Belt during the coming weekend, but it will not last long with more dry and warm weather expected next week.

 

In Australia, hot dry weather has forecasters there expecting some problems with the crop. Australia’s east and west coast regions have received less than half their normal moisture for the 3-month period April to June. Due to the outlook for little soil moisture, traders and analysts are cutting expectations for Australia's wheat production by 20% below official estimates with some going as low as 19 MMT to 21 MMT vs official June estimates of 24.1 MMT.

NOPA soybean crush estimates will be released later this morning. Analysts look for a 143.1 MB crush, with forecasts ranging from 141 to 144. Last year, June crush was record high at 145.1 MB.

 

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July 14, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 101

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 07/14/2017

Grain basis was mostly steady this week in spite of wide swings in the underlying futures market. On the week, US average corn and soybean basis were unchanged.

 

Corn basis continues to show more strength in the Western and Northern Plains as dry conditions and heavy cattle feeding activity continues to underpin the market. In North Dakota, ethanol plants there raised their basis 3 to 9 cents a bushel over the last week. But other plants around the country were more stable, and stretching into the Eastern Cornbelt there was some modest weakness.  River terminals as a group were off 2 cents a bushel with the Gulf bid giving up 1 cent on the week.

 

In soybeans, basis levels were 2-cents weaker at crushing plants and 4-cents weaker at river terminals. There was some modest improvement in bean basis in the Central and Northern Plains on the week.

Weather in recent weeks has spelled some problems for corn yield in certain regions of the country. Private forecaster Planalytics, utilizing satellite imagery data, has pegged the US corn yield at 165.3 bushels per acre, which is 3 bushel an acre below their trend yield forecast. The worse state is SD where they are at 24 bushels below trend. So far, there has been only modest movement in New-Crop 2017 corn basis with the last 30 days seeing modest gains in the Western Plains of OK/KS/NE. If yield continues to be subpar pin these areas and with strong cattle feeding, we would expect basis levels in the WCB to start to respond higher. 

 

 

To Learn More about Planalytics Ag Business Services contact Jed Lafferty, (610) 854-2245

 

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July 14, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 100

Latest Weather Models Still Show Significant Heat in the Central Plains

Grains trying to recover some of Thursday's sharp sell-off

Grains tried to recover some of Thursday’s sharp sell-off.

 

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The latest weather models still show significant heat in the central Plains with Kansas expected to see 8 days running of better than 100 degree temps and Nebraska should see 4 days besting the 100-degree mark. For Iowa and states to the East it seems temperatures should stay out of the extreme heat through the end of July. Moisture should also be a regular occurrence in these areas as well over the next two weeks.

 

Private forecaster Planalytics came out with their latest yield estimates, pegging US corn at 165.3, off from their trend yield estimate of 168.2 at the beginning of the season and well below USDA’s own estimate of 170.7 on Wednesday. For soybeans, they see yields at 46.7, slightly below their own trend of 47.1 and USDA’s estimate of 48.0.

 

 

The Buenos Aires grains exchange cut the forecast for Argentina's 2017-18 wheat area to 5.4 million hectares on Thursday from 5.5 million hectares seen previously, citing excess rain and humidity during the season. The Rosario exchange on Wednesday cut the estimated planted area to 5.45 million hectares from 5.6 million hectares previously.

 

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July 13, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 60

Weekly Export Sales Numbers Are In

Grains Had More Losses in the Overnight Session

Grains had more losses overnight with soybeans leading the complex lower on a 20-cent slide.

 

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Weather models have started to lessen the heat impact in the Plains for the coming two weeks. In addition, scattered rains could provide some modest relief in some of the drier areas. The drought monitor this morning showed mild expansion of the drought over the past week in Iowa but with more intense expansion in SD/ND/MT.

 

Yesterday’s USDA report showed better than expected wheat production by a small margin but combined with lower feed use and exports, this led to carry-out being raised to 938 MB up from 924 last month and well above 876 expected by the trade going into the report. For corn and beans, USDA left their yield forecast unchanged from their trend estimate, albeit even though crop conditions are subpar compared to normal.

 

Export sales were mixed this morning with new-crop corn and soybean sales beating expectations. But old-crop corn was disappointing coming in at a meager 161,000 MT vs 300-500,000 expected.

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat - NC

357

300-500

Corn - OC

161

300-500

Corn - NC

279

50-200

Soybeans - OC

228

200-400

Soybeans - NC

455

50-200


 

 

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July 12, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 56

USDA Crop Out Today at 11 am CST

Grains Lower in the Overnight

Grains were lower overnight as grains take back some of the gains made on the recent highs. USDA’s crop report comes out at 11 am CDT, which should provide some further gyrations in the market.

 

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The US weather continues to point to extreme heat in the Northwestern Plains for the remainder of this week, with the high temperature dome moving more to the East next week. July 18-Jul 21 Nebraska is expected  see highs above 100 in this 4-day period.

Precipitation over the next 2-week period should also be limited for the Plains and Western Cornbelt. Moisture totals will be running 1 to 1.5 inches below normal.

 

 

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July 11, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 62

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