June 14, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 349

Crop Conditions Continue to Improve

Crude Oil Sinks for 4th Consecutive Day

Grain prices were lower overnight as improving crop conditions pressured prices for a 2nd day. In outside markets, crude oil sank for a 4th straight day after hitting a 7-month high last week.

 

USDA’s crop condition report released Monday after the close showed an improvement in soybeans as the crop went from 72% to 74% good to excellent on the week. Corn condition was unchanged at 75%. Winter wheat harvest reached 11% complete, and pressure on cash basis was starting to hit in OK & TX.

 

In other news, on Monday private analyst Informa released US acreage projections ahead of the USDA’s June 30th report. Informa expects a 1-million acre increase in soybean acres and a similar decrease in corn acres as compared to the March 31 estimate by USDA.  

 

U.S. stock markets looked set to extend the prior session’s losses on Tuesday, tracking global equity markets lower amid growing anxiety the U.K. will vote to leave the European Union later this month. Recent polls suggested support for the U.K. campaign to leave the European Union is picking up. Britain's "Out" campaign widened its lead over the "In" camp ahead of the country's June 23 referendum. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day meeting starting on Tuesday. While the U.S. central bank is not expected to take action on interest rates, it could provide guidance on its pace of tightening over the next several months.
 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 13, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 341

Corn and Soybeans Gain in the Overnight

Gold hits its Highest Gain since May on Monday

U.S. corn gained 2.5 percent on overnight and soybeans gained almost 1 percent, with prices supported by concerns over a severe drought in Brazil and unseasonal rains in Argentina curbing global supplies. Wheat rose, although prices were capped by expectations of a bumper harvest of the U.S. winter crop.

 

Brazil’s economist raised their GDP outlook for next year to 1 percent from 0.85 percent. Just a month ago the projected outlook was 0.5 percent.

 

The USDA has cut its estimates for ending stocks as there is a strong demand for U.S. Products.

 

Gold hits its highest gain since May on Monday, being driven higher by a retreat in the dollar.

 

Weather in the midwest continues to look hot with a chance of rain to begin the week. NOAA has issued warnings of potential flash flooding and thunderstorms in the plains region for Monday. Over the weekend Brazil experienced frosts near the southern 10% of the corn crop resulting in isolated damage.

 

Crude oil prices are expected to continue lower, weighed down by gloomy economic prospects in Europe and Asia and the strengthening U.S. dollar. API estimates ethanol stocks to be lower again this week by as much as 3.56M.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID 0307930)


 

June 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 341

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 06/10/2016

Corn basis was off 1-cent on the week while US soy basis was down 3-cents for the week.

 

Corn basis took a modest 1-cent decline. Ethanol was down nearly 2-cents on the week. Corn river basis was up nearly a cent as export volumes continue to be seasonally robust for this time of year.


In soybeans, the strength in the futures market this week caused US soybean basis levels to slip by 3 cent. River basis was down five and a quarter. Soy plants were also down almost 5 cents on the week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID 0307930)

June 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 431

USDA Crop Report Releases Today

Report is expected to show higher wheat carryout

Grains were mixed overnight as traders await fresh input from USDA’s crop report at 11 am CDT today.

 

Kevin will be hosting a Live Stream Commentary this morning--(Live Stream starts at 10:30 am CDT, Crop Report releases at 11:00 a.m. CDT)

Click Here to Register

 

Overall, the USDA report is expected to show higher wheat carryout on the heels of better US production and weaker exports, while corn and soybeans are expected to see a drop in carryout thanks to surging US exports.

 

It also seems likely that USDA will need to lower their Brazil forecasts for corn and soybeans after the government there cut their production forecasts. Brazil’s soy crop is pegged at 95.6 MMT v 99.0 USDA while the corn crop is at 76.2 v 81.0 USDA.

 

India may import 5 million tonnes of wheat in 2016/17 as its local production is hit by back-to-back years of drought amid rising demand, a leading consumer said on Friday.
The country is expected to produce 85 million tonnes of the grain in 2016, a decline of about 2.3 percent from last year, said S. Sivakumar, group head of agri and IT businesses at ITC Ltd.
 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 09, 2016 | Kevin McNew | Views: 406
June 09, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 346

US Corn Export Sales Above Expectations

Soybeans Continue their Gains

Soybeans gained for a fourth consecutive session overnight, trading close to a two year high as the market was affected by a forecast of a dry growing season. Crude oil was down on profit taking, following a third straight week of falling inventories.

 

U.S. corn export sales were well above expectations for old crop this morning. Meanwhile, wheat sales were disappointing, albeit South Africa and Brazil were notable buyers of U.S. HRW wheat. Reports from Europe indicate France is still sitting on a large stockpile of wheat. Improved exports are expected to absorb some of the huge surplus generated by a record 2015 harvest. However, overall there have been positive signs for France’s export business. Brazil's livestock producers have been feeding higher quality wheat because of corn shortages. Reports from Brazil show lower estimated old-crop soybean and corn production, off 1.28 and 3.74 MMT respectively.

 

Temperatures are expected to remain high in the grain belt with indications of precipitation in the Gulf region.

 

Tomorrow’s crop report is still expected to show a decrease in corn and soybean carry-out an increase in wheat carry-out.

 

Did You Know

Grain Hedge will be hosting a "Live Stream" for the USDA Crop Report

on Friday, June 10th

(Live Stream starts at 10:30 am CDT, Crop Report releases at 11:00 a.m. CDT)

 

Click Here to Register


 

 

                        Act-OC          Exp-OC       Act-NC         Exp-NC

Corn                  1,559         900-1,200        120          100-300

Soybean               475            300-500        758           500-700

Wheat                 (200)             -50            223           300-500


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 343
June 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 362

Soybeans Lead the Complex in the Overnight

In outside markets, Crude Oil was Higher

Grains were higher yet again with soybeans leading the complex on a 15-cent advance overnight. In outside markets, crude oil was higher while the US dollar was lower.

 

Grains were higher overnight fueled by weather. The near term weather forecasts turn hot with dryness expected in the western belt and S Plains.While short-term beneficial for crop development, hot weather in June is fueling fears of what could happen in July during the critical growing season.

 

Chinese customs data on Wednesday shows they imported 7.66 mmt of soybeans
during the month of May, that compares to the 7.07 mmt imported in April. For Jan-
May imports totaled 31 mmt, up 14.56% on the year. This morning USDA reported a 132,000 MT old-crop sale of beans to China. This adds to previous sales of 205,0000 MT for new-crop previously reported this week.

 

The crop report on Friday is expected to show the continued tightening of US and world corn and soy stocks on strong demand and crop issues in the Southern Hemisphere while wheat production and stocks are expected to build.

 

API weekly crude stocks were smaller than expected on Tuesday as stocks fell 3.56 million barrels. That compares to last week's change of a 2.35 million barrel build. Official government EIA stocks data will be released this morning with traders looking for a 2.74 million barrel fall in inventories.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 410
June 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 284

Soybeans Advance in the Overnight

Crude Oil above $50 a Barrel

Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans advancing, and corn and wheat declining. In outside markets, crude oil got above $50 a barrel for the first time since May 26 while the US Dollar was mostly steady.

 

Monday after the close, USDA reported the US corn crop at 75% good-to-excellent, up from 72% last week’s report and 74% last year. In the first report of the season for soybeans, the crop condition was rated at 72% good-to-excellent, higher than last year at this time when the score was 69%. Wheat conditions slipped this week, as winter wheat fell to 62% from 63% last week, and spring wheat was unchanged on the week at 79% good to excellent. US winter wheat harvest is 2% completed.

 

US weather shows limited thundershowers in the northern/eastern Midwest from late Wednesday through the rest of the week, favoring northern Illinois, northern/eastern Indiana, and southwest Ohio. Heat builds late in the week in the Midwest/South, peaking Friday/Saturday and then retracting to the southwest corner of the Midwest and Delta by Sunday/Monday before moderating further. Highs will rise into the 90s, with the best shot at mid 90s in Nebraska/Kansas/Missouri/South Dakota/western Minnesota/southwest Illinois/Deep South.
 

The best chance for rain arrives next Monday to Wednesday and favors the northern Midwest and Delta with welcome moisture for corn/soy growth. Showers also favor the northern Midwest in the 11 to 15 day but are more limited, with parts of Missouri/southern Illinois/southern Indiana/Kentucky at most risk to be driest through the next two weeks. While both models do hint at some moderation just beyond the period, the 16 to 30 day guidance shows better agreement to the warmer side for the Midwest, with slipping moisture supplies most likely in the southeast 1/2 of the belt. Forecast confidence does remain very low given relatively poor recent 16 to 30 day model performance, but possible corn risks are elevated compared to yesterday heading into early July.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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