October 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 298
October 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 219

USDA Supply and Demand Report Out Later Today

In outside markets, the US Dollar Continues to Strengthen

Grains continued to mark time with limited movements, awaiting USDA’s latest supply and demand forecasts out later this morning. In outside markets the US dollar continued to strengthen hitting its highest point in 7 months.

This morning USDA announced a 115,000 MT sale of soybeans to China. Traders will look for guidance from USDA’s crop report out at 11 am this morning. The trade is looking for a dip in corn yield from 174.4 last month to 173.5 this month, while soybean yields are expected to be higher hitting 51.5 versus 50.6 last month.

Australia is expected to harvest a near-record wheat crop in 2016/17, but recent heavy rains may lead to quality downgrades and curb exports. Analysts expect a crop of 28.35 MMT just above  Australia's most recent official estimate of 28.1 MMT made in September. The bumper crop, which would be the second highest on record behind a near-30 million tonnes in 2010/11, follows good growing weather early in the season, but faces risks from soaking east-coast rains and unseasonably cold weather in Western Australia.

OPEC reported an increase in oil production in September to the highest in at least eight years and raised its forecast for 2017 non-OPEC supply growth, pointing to a larger surplus next year despite the group's deal to cut output. OPEC pumped 33.39 million barrels per day last month, up 220,000 bpd from August. The figures underline OPEC's challenge in seeking to restrain supplies for the first time since 2008 to curb a persistent supply glut and prop up prices.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

October 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 322
October 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 218

Grains Lethargic in the Overnight

Export Inspections to be Released Later Today

Grains were lethargic overnight with listless two-sided trade. In outside markets, equity futures and crude oil were weaker following Monday’s rally.

 

This morning USDA announced a 161,544 MT sale of corn to unknown destinations. Export inspections will be released later this morning after the Columbus Holiday on Monday pushed government reports forward a day. Traders look for wheat 400,000-600,000 tonnes, corn 1.1-1.4 million tonnes, soybeans 1.0-1.2 million tonnes.

 

Torrential rains across most Ukrainian regions after a severe drought could leave around 500,000 hectares of winter grain area unsown a senior state weather forecaster said on Tuesday. Ukraine's winter wheat harvest is highly dependent on moisture content in the soil during the autumn sowing, air temperatures in winter and favorable weather in spring."The outlook is very gloomy," said Tetyana Adamenko, the head of the agriculture department for the state weather.

Rains early next week slow harvest in all but far W. Midwest, but drier 11-15 day aids recovery until end of period. Rains remain limited in Plains hard red wheat next 10 days, but rain chances improve late in 11-15 day for dry spots.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 297
October 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 256

Grains Mixed in Quiet Trade to Start the Week

US Dollar is Up this morning

Grains were mixed in quiet trade to start the week while crude oil continued to march higher. Equity futures and the US dollar were up as well in early morning trade action.

 

Wheat came into the week in a buying mood following Friday’s CFTC report which showed a record large short spec position. Also, overnight French Farm Ministry cut their forecast for wheat production to 28.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 28.2 MMT. However, they did bump up their corn forecast to 12.6 MMT from 12.5 previously.

 

Export deals were active in wheat overnight.. A group of South Korean mills bought a couple of loads of wheat totaling 100,000 MT from Australia while a flour mill in Bahrain bought 25,000 MT of wheat from Baltic Sea markets

 

In the US weekend weather was mostly dry across the Midwest which helped move corn/soy harvest along. This week there are a few minor showers in the Central and SW Midwest; longer term, the 6-15 day forecast shows some rain potential could slow C. & E. Midwest corn/soy harvest progress briefly, but overall progress near normal.

Crude oil sold off on Friday after the Russian energy ministers said “he was not expecting to sign a production deal with OPEC at the World Energy Conference, which starts this week in Istanbul.” In addition, the Baker Hughes weekly report on U.S. oil rig counts increased for the 7th straight week to 428 rigs.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 189

Grains were Mixed in Quiet Trade to Start the Week

US Dollar was Up this Morning

Grains were mixed in quiet trade to start the week while crude oil continued to march higher. Equity futures and the US dollar were up as well in early morning trade action.

 

Wheat came into the week in a buying mood following Friday’s CFTC report which showed a record large short spec position. Also, overnight French Farm Ministry cut their forecast for wheat production to 28.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 28.2 MMT. However, they did bump up their corn forecast to 12.6 MMT from 12.5 previously.

 

Export deals were active in wheat overnight.. A group of South Korean mills bought a couple of loads of wheat totaling 100,000 MT from Australia while a flour mill in Bahrain bought 25,000 MT of wheat from Baltic Sea markets

 

In the US weekend weather was mostly dry across the Midwest which helped move corn/soy harvest along. This week there are a few minor showers in the Central and SW Midwest; longer term, the 6-15 day forecast shows some rain potential could slow C. & E. Midwest corn/soy harvest progress briefly, but overall progress near normal.

Crude oil sold off on Friday after the Russian energy ministers said “he was not expecting to sign a production deal with OPEC at the World Energy Conference, which starts this week in Istanbul.” In addition, the Baker Hughes weekly report on U.S. oil rig counts increased for the 7th straight week to 428 rigs.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 300
October 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 468

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 10/07/2016

National basis saw light movement after big losses during September.

 

Corn was the lightest mover this week off 1/4 cent nationally. Ethanol plants were virtually unchanged this week off only a tenth of a cent. EIA data on Wednesday was supportive for ethanol showing a 400,000 barrel draw-down in stocks pushing them to 20.18 million barrels. Corn river terminals saw positive gains up an average of 1 cent per bushel.

 

Soybeans saw mixed movement to close the week. On average, soybeans lost 1 1/4 cents. Crush facilities saw the largest move lower, down 4 1/2 cents per bushel. River facilities saw positive gains this week up 3 1/2 cents.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 344

Early Estimates for USDA October Crop Report

Grains Mixed in the Overnight Session

Grains were mixed overnight with no definitive movement from the overnight trade. In outside markets, a weaker than expected US payroll report pushed the dollar lower while equities recovered.

 

This morning USDA announced another sale of soybeans. This time 195,000 MT to unknown destinations.

 

Early estimates of USDA’s October crop report show traders expect a slightly lower corn yield and higher bean yield than USDA’s September data. A poll of analysts has corn yield at 173.5 versus Sept USDA at 174.4, while soybean yields are expected to climb to 51.5 from 50.6. The crop report will come out on Wednesday, October 12.

Showers in the Western Cornbelt yesterday slowed harvest progress but the next 5 days should be drier. The 6 to 15 day forecast shows some rain potential in the Midwest but little impact is expected for the crop getting harvested.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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