Geo Grain Commentary
Weekly Cash Commentary
Higher futures prices and aggressive farmer selling helped keep soybean basis unchanged for the week, while US average corn basis rose 2 cents a bushel.
For soybeans, river terminals were hard hit this week slipping 5-cents a bushel as weakness at the Gulf combined with an uptick in barge rates pushed basis levels lower. For soybean plants, basis levels were mixed as some plants in the Eastern Cornbelt raised basis levels while some in the West lowered their basis. On average, soybean plants as a group were off 2 cents a bushel for the week.
In corn, river terminals were also hard hit by weakness at the Gulf and higher barge freight with basis levels 4 cents lower for the week. Ethanol buyers continue to bid aggressively for corn as spot ethanol prices continue to defy the steep sell off in crude prices. Crush margins for ethanol producers continue to be favorable and this week’s production figure of 988,000 barrels per day was a marketing year high and putting year-to-date production 4.6% above last year’s tally. Basis levels for ethanol buyers were up 2 cents on average, although some plants were lower on the week thanks to increased farmer selling.
Grains extended their gains in the overnight session
Wheat, Corn and Soybeans were up at the end of the night trade
Grains extended their gains in the overnight session with front-month March wheat futures climbing above $6 a bushel but hitting resistance at $6.10. Corn and soybeans were also up posting 5 cent advances at the end of the night trade.
On Thursday, Egypt’s GASC announced the results of their wheat tender with Russia garnering most of the business. Prices came in around $252 per MT and were $30 lower than the only US SRTW wheat offer. Nonetheless, US interior values continue to be robust. Millers in Illinois continue to bid aggressively for wheat with basis levels for spot delivery about 50 cents a bushel higher than normal for this time of year.
For soybeans, the market continues to be buoyed by strong export demand. Current export commitments for US soybeans have eclipsed 40 MMT while USDA has pegged total exports for the year to reach 47.9 MMT. Traders also look for a large crush estimate in Monday’s monthly NOPA release, which is expected to show a record high of 165.4 MB for November.
In corn, export business was on par with expectations last week, but overall commitments year-to-date are on par with the pace needed to reach USDA’s annual forecast. Ukraine is said to be having problems meeting corn contracts signed with China in. Private feed mills in China signed contracts in October to 1.1 MMT but the Ukraine supplier is unlikely to be able to ship all of the contracted volume before the February deadline.
Strong Export Sales
Tune into GrainTV and see Cody break down the export sales reported this morning and see if corn and soybean export sales pace is strong enough to meet the USDA's expectations.
WASDE Out Today
Tune into a packed GrainTV as Cody discusses why there was selling pressure after the WASDE report. He also hits on recent news about South American exports and ethanol numbers.
Will we see new highs in tomorrow’s trade?
Cody discusses WASDE expectations and what that could mean for the market. He also looks at what to expect from South American crop production.
Corn finds selling pressure at $4.00
Cody discusses this morning export sales and inspections numbers and discusses some of the headlines that helped corn nearly reach $4.00 in this morning trade session .
Will Higher Soybean Prices Continue?
Kevin and Cody discuss the sustainability of soybean prices. They also touch on corn and soybean basis around the nation as well as December WASDE expectations.
Postive Exports Sales
Cody and Kevin discuss the implications export sales expectations are having on soybeans. Kevin also gives a brief summary about the weather effects in Ukraine
Ethanol Production Numbers Out Today
Cody breaks down how Russian and Ukraine turmoil are affecting the wheat market. Kevin discusses this week's export sales expectations.
Weekly Cash Comments
Corn basis saw modest growth this week advancing 2 cents a bushel on average across the country, but bean basis was unchanged thanks to higher futures and better farmer selling.
In corn, basis levels were up largely driven by strength at ethanol plants in the Western Cornbelt. On...[Read More]
Grains Higher Going into Friday
In the overnight the grains traded higher with corn up ¼ of a cent, soybeans up 3 ½ cents and wheat up 6 ¾ cents going into this morning’s pause. Wheat seems to be bouncing higher this morning after holding a major support level of $4.92 ¼ which was the low back on February 2nd. Today is...[Read More]
South American Trucker Strike Continues
Export sales provide little support to the markets
In the overnight session the grains traded mixed with corn and soybeans up 2 ¼ each and wheat trading 1 ¼ cent higher going into the morning pause in trade. Today is the last day to get out of any March grain contracts with first notice day Friday the 27th.
Yesterday at 11 AM CST...[Read More]
Ethanol Production out this Morning
Soybeans slip in overnight after yesterday’s gains
The grains are moving lower this morning with corn down a penny, soybeans down 4 cents and wheat in Chicago down 3 ½ cents. Yesterday’s rally in Soybeans sparked some farmer selling after prices rose sharply to an intraday high of $10.29. Keep a close watch on corn today as it trades next...[Read More]