Will Weather Turn Positive for Crops?
Will the weather over the next 10 days help overall crop development?
In the overnight session the grains traded lower again with corn down 5 ¼ cents, soybeans down 3 cents and wheat down 8 cents. The U.S. dollar is up 1/5th of a percent and crude oil 66 cents lower. Corn is trading just above the 50 percent retracement level at $4.09 from the rally that started June 16th and recently peaked at 4.54 ¼ cents on July 14th. November soybeans is trading around the $10 level with a mild support level around $9.92.
The grains are moving lower this morning with the forecast showing a positive outlook for crop development over the next 10 days. The eastern Midwest which has been getting hit with excessive moisture in the early part of the growing season is expected to receive only limited showers, while the outlook in Iowa and Nebraska is for the weather to turn wetter for the next 10 days. Heat events are expected to be limited with only a few mild events expected over the weekend and early next week. Canada is also expected to receive beneficial rains for their wheat and canola crop.
This morning there was some export activity with NASS reporting 120,000 metric tons of U.S soybeans to be sold to china for new crop delivery. A tender was also issued this morning by South Korea’s corn processing industry association for 55,000 metric tons of corn from either the U.S, Brazil or Argentina. The corn is to be delivered in November and the tender closes on Wednesday.
Sustained Weather Premium for Crops
Cody reviews the charts for corn, soybeans, and wheat and looks at the upcoming weather outlook.
Crop Conditions Hold Steady
With the crop progress report out of the way, can grain prices hold their ground?
In the overnight session the grains traded mixed with corn down 2 cents, soybeans up 1 ¾ cents and wheat down 4 ¼ cents. The U.S. Dollar is lower by 1/5th of a percent and crude oil is up 14 cents this morning. This morning the USDA reported 110,000 metric ton sale of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations.
The crop conditions report was released after the market closed on Monday and showed that corn and soybeans rated good-to-excellent was left unchanged at 69 percent and 62 percent respectively. Corn did show an increase in the excellent column by 2 percent which was offset by a 2 percent decline in the good column. Analysts were expecting to see corn ratings unchanged and soybeans conditions to decline from last week. In the state crop progress reports both Indiana and Ohio described some of the recently harvested wheat crop as being of very low quality with low test weights, high vomitoxin levels and high moisture content.
Export inspections showed that corn, soybeans and wheat all beat analyst expectations. In the report released on Monday corn showed 1,161,000 metric tons were inspected for export, above expectations which ranged from only 600,000-900,000 metric tons. Soybeans reported 306,000 metric tons compared to expectations of 110,000-215,000 metric tons and wheat reported 489,000 metric tons inspected for export. All three crops showed significant improvement over last week’s inspection numbers.
Egypt’s GASC was offered wheat from Russia, France, Ukraine and Romania in a tender for 55,000-60,000 metric tons of wheat that was issued yesterday. No wheat was offered from the U.S. and Russian wheat was the most competitive at $193.75 a metric ton.
Continued Volatility for the Grains?
Tune in to hear Cody discuss grain technicals and conditions.
Grains Slide Lower In The Overnight
The grains slipped lower in the overnight trade session with crop conditions expected to be unchanged for corn and weather clearing for the eastern grain belt over the next 10 days.
In the overnight session the grains traded lower with corn down 8 ¾ cents, soybeans down 12 ¾ cents and wheat in Chicago down 10 ¼ cents. The U.S. dollar is trading a fraction of a percent higher and crude oil is unchanged on the day. This morning the Taiwan Flour miller’s Association issued a tender for 104,350 metric tons of wheat to be purchased from the United States.
Crop conditions will be released out at 3 PM CST today, with expectations of corn conditions to be unchanged at 69 percent rated good to excellent and soybean conditions to decline slightly from 62 percent rated good to excellent last week. Weather looks to clear up for the eastern grain belt for the next 10 days providing some relief from saturated fields which have hindered yield prospects. Temperatures have also moderated throughout the Midwest with highs in the 80’s throughout most of the Midwest today. Another heat event is expected later this week which is expected to be mainly located in Kansas and into the Delta.
New crop corn sales have been behind the average pace for this time of the year. As of last week cumulative outstanding export sales for soybeans delivered in 15/16 totaled to 6,851,276 metric tons, compared to a three year average of 12,034,663 metric tons. New crop corn sales are also behind the average pace with only 3,543,127 metric tons of new crop corn sold, which is only 55 percent of the four year average. The strong dollar and sharp rally in futures prices has many new crop grain buyers sitting on the side line for the time being.
Strategy Grains cut their EU forecast last Thursday after heat and dry weather damaged crop production prospects. Strategy Grains lowered their corn forecast to 66.7 million metric tons down .7 MMT from the June forecast.
GrainTV: Will Lagging Export Sales Be Able to Match Expectations?
Cody reviews the export sales and weather outlook.
Mixed Export Sales
Cody reviews the mixed export sales report and discusses the weather outlook.
Grains Pop Thursday Morning
The grains popped in the overnight session Thursday morning.
In the overnight session the grains are trading higher with December corn up 6 3/4 cents, November soybeans up 8 3/4 cents and wheat in Chicago up 4 cents. The U.S dollar is trading up nearly ½ a percent and crude oil is up 26 cents this morning.
Old crop export sales showed weekly declines for both corn and wheat. In the weekly sales report wheat booked 291,500 metric tons which was a 16% decline from the previous week. Corn sales were a marketing year low, declining 38 percent from the previous week with 331,100 metric tons sold. Soybeans showed positive sales with 45,500 metric tons booked which is expected considering the time of year. New crop sales were strong for soybeans booking 507,000 metric tons for 15/16 delivery. New crop corn sales were also strong with 325,100 metric tons sold, up from only 149,010 metric tons sold last week.
Yesterday’s ethanol production numbers from the EIA showed production has fallen 3,000 barrels per day week over week to a total of 984,000 barrels per day. Although this was a slight decline from last week it was better than expected and is 41 million barrels per day ahead the same week last year and 106 million barrels per day ahead of the moving average. Ethanol stocks also fell 101,000 barrels to 19.74 million barrels this week.
June NOPA crush numbers were higher than expected with 142.473 million bushels crushed in the month of June. This beat the average guess of 141.478 million bushels and is up substantially from last year’s June crush number of 123.117 mbu. Soyoil stocks were reported at 1.574 billion pounds.
Ethanol Numbers Give Support to Corn
Cody looks at ethanol production numbers, soybean techincals, and upcoming weather.
Grains were Mixed in the Overnight
Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans a leader to the downside on a 4-cent loss while corn gave up 1 cent. Chicago wheat was trying to hold on to a 1-cent advance. In outside markets, crude oil was up $0.40 a barrel while the S&P 500 slipped 0.40 percent.
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Grains Nearing Resistance
The grains are moving higher with corn up 3/4 of a cent, soybeans up 6 cents and wheat up 3 1/2 cents this morning. The outside markets are mostly supportive with the dollar unchanged, the E-MINI S&P up .61 percent and crude oil up 48 cents this morning.[Read More]
Wheat Continues to Grind Higher
Corn Looks to Move over $4
In the overnight session the grains traded a bit higher with corn up 1 3/4 cents soybeans down 1/2 a cent and wheat up 4 1/2 cents. The outside markets are mixed with the U.S dollar trading .22 percent lower, E-Mini S&P futures .1 percent lower and crude oil up 41 cents this morning. On...[Read More]