June 03, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 301

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 10/15/2015

US corn basis was mostly steady on the week while soybeans posted a modest 1-cent advance as futures climbed to two-year highs.

 

Corn basis levels along the Gulf were up sharply this week, posting an 8-cent advance as late season export business continues to be stronger than normal for this time of year.  River terminals were more muted in their gains, but managed a 2-cent improvement on the week.  Corn ethanol plants were mostly steady this week.

 

In soybeans, the strength in the export market continues to keep basis levels supported. This week Gulf basis was up 10 cents which helped lift river terminals by nearly 6 cents a bushel. After being up sharply last week, soy crush plants managed only a 1-cet advance for the week.

 

"The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substaintial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID:0307930)

June 03, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 324

Double-digit gains in Soybeans

weaker than expected job data

Grains continued to pulse higher led by soybeans with double-digit gains. In outside markets, weaker than expected jobs data put pressure on the US Dollar and equity futures heading into the day session.

 

Soybeans continued to clear a path to $12 a bushel after gaining $0.44 yesterday and $0.19 overnight. This morning’s export sales report showed NC sales that exceeded expectations with over 700,000 MT booked for 2016, versus 400 to 600,000 MT expected   

 

Old-crop corn sales came in well above expectations with 1.3 MMT for the week and only 0.8 to 1.0 expected.

 

In outside markets, the US Dollar took a hit as weaker than expected jobs data put equities and the US Dollar index on defense. The U.S. economy created the fewest number of jobs in more than five years in May, hurt by a strike by Verizon (VZ.N) workers and a fall in goods producing employment, pointing to labor market weakness that could make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 38,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since September 2010, the Labor Department said on Friday. Employers hired 59,000 fewer workers in March and April. The government said the month-long Verizon strike had depressed employment growth by 34,000 jobs.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

 

           Act-OC     Exp-OC    Act-NC    Exp-NC

Corn     1,317    800-1,000   128        200-400

Soy       309       200-400      737        400-600

Wheat   107      -200-50        385        300-500

 


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 02, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 348
June 02, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 208

Soybeans Reach New Heights

Crude oil was unchanged in the overnight

Soybeans reached new heights overnight with front month July briefly touching $11.10 a bushel. Corn and wheat were mostly unchanged in rather directionless trade. In outside markets, crude oil was unchanged while equity futures and the US dollar drifted lower.

 

On Wednesday, grains got a boost as problems with South America’s crops continue to mount. Yesterday, weather forecaster Lanworth pegged Brazil’s corn crop at 75 MMT, off 5% from their previous estimate citing issues associated with the second season corn crop.

 

Also, exporter association ANEC said Brazil’s soy exports would be 57 MMT this year vs USDA’s 59.5 MMT, while corn exports would be 23 vs 30 MMT as previously predicted. A drop in Brazil’s corn crop is stimulating demand for feed wheat from Asia. Indonesia has bought over 1 MMT of feed wheat this year, while Thailand has locked in close to 2 MMT. That compares to limited shipments a couple of years ago.

 

In crude oil., traders await guidance from today’s OPEC meeting in Vienna. Saudi Arabia promised on Thursday not to flood the oil market with extra barrels as OPEC entered a heated debate about production policy, with Iran insisting on the right to raise output steeply. Several OPEC sources said Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies would propose to set a new collective ceiling in an attempt to repair OPEC's waning importance and end a market-share battle that has sapped prices and cut investment. Failure to reach any deal would revive market fears that OPEC's largest producer Saudi Arabia, already pumping near record highs, may raise production further to punish rivals and gain additional market share.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 01, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 305
June 01, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 313

Grains Under Pressure

Corn and Soybeans Drift Lower

Grains were under pressure to start Wednesday with corn and soybeans drifting lower while wheat reversed some of Tuesday’s sharp losses.

 

On Tuesday after the close, USDA’s crop progress report showed corn plantings at 94% complete versus 86% last week. Also, the first crop condition rating of the season showed the crop at 72% good-to-excellent, which is slightly off the score of 74% last year. Winter wheat conditions inched higher to 63% as compared to 62% last week. Meanwhile, soybean plantings breezed along reaching 73% completed, up from 66% last week.


Overnight export deals were fairly limited. Egypt’s FIHC bought 30,000 MT of soybean oil from ADM while Jordan’s start grain buyer relaunched a failed wheat tender on 100,000 MT. Jordan has failed to make purchases in a series of tenders, with traders citing quality controls and payment terms that have reduced participation.

 

Monthly USDA soy crushings are expected at 2 PM CDT today. The report is expected to show April soybean crush at 156.8 MB, off from March’s monthly figure of 166.4 MB. The National Oilseed Processors Association, a trade group, estimated that its members crushed 147.6 MB of soybeans in April, down from 156.7 MB during March.

 

Oil declined for a fourth day on concern recent gains were unsustainable, while shuttered Canadian operations started to reopen.The OPEC meeting on Thursday in Vienna is expected to show a continued policy of squeezing out rivals by maintaining production as the price rally helps justify the group’s strategy. Saudi Arabia will use the meeting to repair relationships with fellow producers after the failure of an April accord to freeze crude output in Doha, according to people familiar the matter. The kingdom’s Minister of Energy Khalid Al-Falih will reassure other members his nation won’t flood the oil market and may be open to the reintroduction of a production target for the group, the people said.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 31, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 292
May 31, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 292

Mixed Grain Prices to Start the Week

US Dollar fractionally higher

Grain prices were mixed to start the week with corn and wheat lower while soybeans were higher. In outside markets, the US dollar was fractionally higher while crude oil also moved up slightly.


Moscow consultant IKAR pegged the Russian wheat crop at 63.5 MMT, up 1 MMT than previous forecasts but only 0.5 MMT higher than the latest USDA forecasts. Wheat prices in Russia were firmer last as the rouble strengthened by 1% against the dollar and global price benchmarks rose.


China will postpone a state soybean reserves auction, the National Grain Trade Center said in an online statement on Tuesday. The statement didn't provide a new auction date. According to an earlier statement, China had planned to auction 300,400 MT of soybeans from state reserves on June 1.
 

Weekend rains over the Midwest were not as abundant as predicted Friday and some fieldwork may have advanced, but more importantly fieldwork will be quicker in resuming this week as soon as abundant sunshine returns. Rainfall reached 1.00 to 2.00 inches in eastern Nebraska, southeastern. Similar rainfall occurred in eastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri and in South Dakota and in random locations from northern Iowa and southern Minnesota to parts of Wisconsin random locations across central Ohio.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 370
May 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 317

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 5/27/2016

US soybean basis showed good strength this week. While corn lagged behind, mostly steady to weaker loosing half a cent on the week.

Corn basis levels at the Gulf were off sharp this week,  giving up  7 cents  a bushel.  River terminals managed to resist the drop in the Gulf at basis level were only off about one cent a bushel.  Recent export deals in corn should underpin river bids and probably keep them moving higher in the summer. Meanwhile, ethanol plants as a group were down this week by one cent suggesting that ethanol plants aren’t eager for corn. 

Overall, we saw a rise in soybean basis by two and half cents. River thermals were leading the rise higher with changes of nearly eight cents per bushel, moving in lockstep with the Gulf. Soy meal is on a sharp upward trajectory. We saw crush facilities increase basis by almost a nickel.  Strengthening soy crushing margins all the way out to January are encouraging some to increase new crop bean basis. 

 

"The rish of selling futures, hedging, and speculating can be substaintial. Grain Hedge is a dba Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID:0307930)

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