November 07, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 276

Markets mixed going into the weekend

Cody and Logan talk about the trade action on Friday and what producers should be thinking about as they come out of Harvest. Cody also digs into the average basis changes seen at the national level.

November 06, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 260

Big Soybean Exports Support Market

Soybean exports of 1.61 million metric tons support today's market. Tune in for a complete break-down as well as a discussion of the sustainability of the rising prices.

November 05, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 209

Grains Bounce Back

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November 04, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 295
November 03, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 353

Talk of Soymeal Imports Pressures Beans

Grains are drifting lower as trade chatter looks for Argentine meal to hit U.S. shores

Talk of Soymeal Imports Pressures Beans

Grain prices are moving lower in Chicago, with corn down 4, soybeans off 10 and Chicago wheat down 4 cents. We are past first notice day for November 2014 soybean contracts, please begin trading the January contract to avoid any issues with delivery.

 

Soymeal futures are trading down a percent in the early going on trade rumors that Argentine soymeal is U.S. bound following last week’s huge rally in price. Harvest is the last time we would expect soymeal imports, but the sharply inverted U.S. futures market has given domestic users the incentive to look abroad.

 

Northern Brazil received precipitation over the weekend but the trade remains concerns about output moving forward. Rainfall totals have been 30% behind normal during October, delaying planting and forcing some producers to replant. The 7 day outlook has turned a bit more dry over the weekend – we will continue to monitor the pace of planting in Mato Grasso. 

 

Several private analysts will be releasing their updated crop projections ahead of the November 10th USDA report. FC Stone will be out today and Informa will give their updated numbers later in the week. Grains have traded sharply higher over the last month with very little consideration for current 2014/15 ending stock estimates.

October 31, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 301
October 31, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 154

Grains Drifting Lower as Dollar Index Surges Higher

Grains are down slightly this morning while outside markets are very busy. Dollar sharply up while Crude and Gold off a percent or more.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat are continuing to drift lower in the overnight session. Coming into the morning trade break corn is down 2, wheat is off 5 cents, and soybeans are down 5 cents. Today is first notice day for November 14 futures, please roll all soybean positions to the January contract.

 

Soymeal is drifting lower to unchanged this morning in a relatively quiet trade. The CME Group has raised soymeal margins by 25% for speculators and hedgers effective today, leading some trading to believe a further retracement will be seen. Higher margins force traders to liquidate open positions or re-margin existing positions. Many longs in the market may opt to liquidate their positions after a huge run up since early October.

 

Beneficial rains are expected to hit Brazil today through Wednesday in the key growing state of Mato Grasso. These rains are much needed as dryness over the last 30 days has forced many producers to replant soybeans. The forecast has turned slightly dryer for the 2 week forecast, and we will continue to monitor any changes. Argentina corn is off to a great start as the key growing state of Cordoba has received a surplus of moisture over the last 30 days. 

 

The dollar index is surging another leg high this morning, trading up nearly a percent in the early going. FED comments on Wednesday got the rally started as the Federal Reserve announced plans to end their 6 year bond buying program. Gold and Crude Oil are both trading substantially lower, gold down 3% while crude is off a percent and a half.

October 30, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 284

Grains Finally Find Selling Pressure

The grain market finally found selling pressure after yesterday's big run up. Today we discuss what was moving the market and how basis is responding to the big gains on the board.

October 29, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 343

Markets Push Sharply Higher

Tune in to see Cody and Logan discuss the rally in corn, soybeans and wheat today. Cody and Logan discuss the soybean meal situation, talk about the next resistance levels for corn/soybeans and discuss export sales expectations for tomorrows report.

Markets Push Sharply Higher
October 29, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 198

Soybean Meal Continues Higher in the Overnight

The grains traded higher in the overnight again, led higher by continued strength out of soybean meal.

In the overnight session the grain inched higher with corn up 2 ¾ cents, soybeans up 5 ½ cents and wheat up 4 ¼ cents going into the pause in trade this morning.

 

Brazil’s key growing states are expected to receive much needed precipitation Thursday through next Tuesday. Mato Grasso was well behind normal rain fall totals in recent weeks but the upcoming rain event is expected to mitigate dry conditions.  Argentina is also expected to receive rain in the coming week, with most rain events likely today and into the weekend. South American growing conditions will begin to be a larger focus for traders as this year’s U.S. crop is put into the bin.

 

Soybean meal is trading higher this morning, up another 1.15% going into the morning pause. Soybean Meal has been the leader to the upside since the beginning of October increasing from $300 per ton to $379 per ton this morning. The soybean meal spread has inverted since October 1st showing that supply concerns for soybean meal delivered in December has become a big concern. Prices for soybean meal have traded as high as $399.8 per ton yesterday as strong meal exports combined with the slower than normal harvest, rail issues and less active farmer selling has slowed pressured the cash soybean meal market domestically. 

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November 14, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills

Corn and bean futures prices found strength this week and the cash market added on to the gains with a 2 cent basis increase on average across the US this week.In corn, ethanol plants were a dominant driver adding 4 cents a bushel as a group as ethanol production continues to accelerate....

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