July 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 122

Soybeans Advance above $10 in the Overnight Session

US Equity Futures in Positive Territory

Soybeans Advance above $10 in the Overnight Session

Grains were higher overnight with soybeans leading the complex by advancing above $10. Corn and wheat followed with more lackluster gains. In outside markets, crude oil dipped a bit while US equity futures were in positive territory to start the morning.

 

Spring wheat yield prospects are lower than last year in southern North Dakota and neighboring sections of South Dakota and Minnesota, scouts on an annual crop tour found on Tuesday.  The Wheat Quality Council tour calculated an average yield for hard red spring wheat fields scouted in the region at 43.1 bushels per acre (bpa) on the first day of a three-day crop tour. That figure compares with the 2015 Day One yield of 51.1 bpa and the tour's five-year average of 45.0 bpa. Scouts on the tour sampled 177 fields overall on Tuesday, including 173 hard red spring wheat fields, four durum wheat fields and no hard red winter wheat fields.

 

Analyst UkrAgroConsult has raised its forecast for Ukraine's 2016 wheat harvest to 24.8 million tonnes from 23.3 million, it said on Wednesday. UkrAgroConsult said that the new outlook was based on a fresh government data on the sowing area, showing the wheat area had increased to 6.2 million hectares from 6 million hectares.

 

In weather, cool air currently moving into the US Corn Belt continues through the weekend, but also pushes heaviest rains the next five days south of the region; temperatures bounce back to 5°F to 10°F above normal next week, but yet another weekend cool-down likely to follow.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

July 26, 2016 | Kevin McNew | Views: 173
July 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 127

Crude Oil Continues Its Slump

USDA Crop Progress Report shows corn and soybean conditions unchanged for the week.

Grains were mixed overnight with wheat lower while corn and soybeans had modest advances in the overnight session. Crude oil continued to slump adding to yesterday’s sharp losses.

 

Yesterday after the close USDA’s crop progress report showed both corn and soybean condition ratings unchanged for the week at 76% and 71%, respectively. Also, both crops are developing ahead of normal. Corn is currently 79% silking versus a 5-year average of 70% while beans are 76% blooming versus 66% for normally for this time of year.

 

In world news, China has experienced heavy rains of late bring 6 to 9 inches in core corn producing areas of North China. While difficult to assess immediate damage to the corn crop, rain of this intensity has likely resulted in some widespread flooding across much of the region. The situation could be made even worse if the heavy rainfall were to continue over the next several weeks, but a dry and pattern would allow fields to dry down more rapidly.

 

The European Union's crop-monitoring service (MARS) raised its forecast slightly for the average soft wheat yield in this year's EU harvest as a sharp increase in the projection for Bulgaria offset a cut in rain-affected France. In its monthly report the MARS service pegged the average EU soft wheat yield at 6.10 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), up from 6.07 t/ha seen in June. The estimate was 2.9% below last year's yield but 4.6% above the five-year average. MARS cut its soft wheat yield estimate for France, whose wheat crop has been hit by torrential rain in the spring and low sunshine, to 7.37 t/ha, from 7.45 t/ha estimated last month. It would be 6.9 percent below 2015, but 0.5 percent above the five-year average.

 

Oil on Tuesday hit its lowest mark since May, falling towards $44 a barrel, pressured by concerns that a long-awaited rebalancing of the market would be delayed due to excess supply. Record crude output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a glut of refined products and signs of more drilling activity in the United States in the face of low oil prices have added to concern about excess supply. U.S. drillers added oil rigs for a fourth consecutive week and traders fear continued increases would threaten a market weighed by excess supply for two years.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 158
July 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 116

Morning Commentary -July 25

Soybeans was a leader to the downside

Soybeans was a leader to the downside this losing 51.25 cents. Compared to soybeans, corn and wheat were down modestly, off 23.5 and 16.25 respectively.

 

Weather models continue to show a wet and cooling trend from the recent heat wave. Temperatures should return to seasonal norms by early next week and even dip below normal by late next week.

 

USDA's crop progress report on Monday showed no material changes in crop conditions with both corn and soybean crop ratings holding steady at 76% and 71%, respectively from the previous week. Spring wheat dropped 1% to 69%. But the overall trend is still better crops ratings than what traders have been expecting as well as conditions that are generally better than last year.

 

US Exports were mixed this week. Old and new crop corn came in slightly lower than analysts expectations. Old crop soybeans were in line with expectations, but new crop came in almost 300,000 MT above expectations.

 

Wheat exports have the potential to increase in the next few months. News out of Europe points to disappointing yields with French wheat yield estimates at the lowest seen in 13 years.

 

Crude oil continues to move lower. Rebalancing may take longer than expected as huge amounts of crude remain in vessels at sea and storage tanks on land. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration also showed a surprise build in supplies of the motor fuel despite forecasts of American drivers hitting the road in record numbers this summer.

 

"The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substaintial. Grain Hedge is a dba of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 22, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 140

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 07/22/2016

Ethanol plants saw a slight rise higher this week up 1.5 cents per bushel. Ethanol production continues to stay strong, particularly in the midwest where we saw the highest production numbers this month. Corn along the river saw an average increase of 3.5 cents per bushel even with old crop and new crop exports coming in below expectations.


Plummeting futures prices kept soybean basis levels mostly stable to slightly stronger across some sectors this week. River terminals as a group were steady as old-crop business starts to trickle off. However, crush plants moved higher by 3.2 cents a bushel on the week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 22, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 205

Positive Signs for US Wheat

World news lends support to the wheat market, while temperatures back off recent highs.

Weather models continue to show a wet and cooling trend from the recent heat wave. Temperatures should return to seasonal norms by early next week and even dip below normal by late next week.

 

Yesterday after the close, Argentina’s government bumped up forecasts for the corn and bean crop for the 2015/16 marketing year. They pegged the soybean crop at 58.8 MMT vs 58.0 previously while the corn crop was projected to be 39.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 37.9 MMT

 

Wheat prospects deteriorated sharply in Europe in recent weeks due to worse than expected damage from heavy spring rain, prompting analysts to slash crop estimates with French output seen at its lowest in 13 years. Consultancy ODA Groupe expects the 2016 crop in the largest EU wheat producer and exporter to be less than 30 million tonnes, down from 32 million pegged last week and 35 million estimated on July 6. If realized, that would be the lowest French wheat harvest since 2003 and is far below the record 2015 crop of nearly 41 million tonnes.

 

Crude futures were on track for weekly losses on Friday as investors reassessed U.S. data on oil stocks and excesses in oil products in Europe and Asia. While many expect global oversupply of oil to ease in the near term, huge amounts of crude remain in vessels at sea and storage tanks on land as the rebalancing takes longer than some had anticipated. While U.S. production has been falling, crude inventories are at 519.5 million barrels, historically high for this time of year according to EIA.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 201
July 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 244

Grains Find Modest Strength in the Overnight

Equities, Crude and the US Dollar were Lower

Grains Find Modest Strength in the Overnight

Grains found modest support overnight trying to recover from the steep losses accumulated over the past three trade sessions. In outside markets, equities were lower as was crude oil and the US dollar.

 

Current weather models continue to point to a return to normal temperatures after today and Friday’s heat wave thru the Midwest.  The latest model shows heavier precip mid next week versus the model 24 hours ago.

In overnight news, Japan bought 165,048 MT in a regular wheat tender. Most of that or 99,473 MT was with the US, while the remainder was to Canada and Australia. South Korea’s state-run Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has purchased 20,000 tonnes of soybeans to be sourced from the United States and Canada in an international tender which took place on Thursday, European traders said.

 

Oil prices rose as much as 1 percent on Wednesday, lifting U.S. crude from two-month lows, after the U.S. government reported a ninth straight week of crude inventory draws, easing some concerns in a market worried about a glut. U.S. gasoline prices, however, hit four-month lows after the data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration also showed a surprise build in supplies of the motor fuel despite forecasts of American drivers hitting the road in record numbers this summer.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

 

                                OC-Act             OC-Exp         NC-Act         NC-Exp

Corn                            345              400-600            506          500-700

Soybeans                     325              300-500          1,001         500-700

Wheat                                                                    478          350-550


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 20, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 254

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