October 23, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 58

Grains Were Mixed in the Overnight Session

Cattle on Feed Report Released on Friday was Mostly Bearish

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with December corn up ¼ cent, November soybeans down ¾ of a cent and December Chicago wheat unchanged. Rains over the weekend slowed harvest throughout the Central Midwest with precipitation in Eastern Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. Precipitation is expected to continue east into eastern Illinois and Indiana. The forecast over the next five days is for precipitation to continue delaying field work over the eastern grain belt.

 

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The market is waiting for the USDA to release its latest crop progress report after the market closes Monday afternoon. Analysts are expecting soybean harvest to be around 70 percent complete and corn harvest to move to 42-43 percent complete. Corn and Soybean basis was unchanged on the week, but the delays in harvest have some feedlots and ethanol facilities increasing their basis in Nebraska and South Dakota by as much as 10 cents.

The Cattle on Feed report that was released on Friday bearish for the most part. All cattle on feed as of October 1st was 105 percent of last year which was above the 104.6 percent that the trade was expecting. Cattle placed on feed in September was 113 percent, compared to the 108 percent expected by the market. Marketings continue to be strong however, with 103 percent marketed, beating the average analyst guess of 102.6 percent.

In the latest Commitments of Traders report the total net short positions held by managed money increased by 7,747 positions from last week. The net position held by managed money for soybeans increased its length by 37,176 last week to 68,168.

 

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October 20, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 43

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 10/20/2017

Grain basis took a break from last week’s sell-off to mostly stabilize as slow harvesting keeps pipeline supplies relatively limited, especially for corn. On the week, there was no change in corn and soybean basis on average across the US.

Basis for corn continues to hold up with current basis levels running on par with the same time last year, but soybeans are about 10 cents a bushel weaker than this time last year. 

 

This week saw some strength from corn buyers as end-users in the Western Cornbelt continue to see tight pipeline supplies. Double-digit gains in basis were showing up by feedlots and ethanol plants in NE and SD. River terminals saw some modest weakness along the lower MS River and the OH River region as harvest there picked up pace.

 

 

For soybeans, buyers were mostly steady to slightly weaker as harvest hits the mid-point for the year. Some soy crush facilities showed 10 to 15 cent losses this week across IA/IL/IN.

 

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October 20, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 35

Corn Flat to Firm This Morning; Wheat Inching Higher

Overnight Session Had Soybeans Inching Higher

In the overnight session soybeans pushed a bit higher with November up 4 cents. December corn traded up ¾ of a penny and Chicago Wheat was up 2 ¼ cents. Rains expected in the eastern Midwest will likely delay harvest over the weekend and into Monday. Further precipitation in the eastern Midwest is expected to delay harvest even more late next week.   

 

  • EXPORTERS SELL 198,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA
  •  
  • EXPORTERS SELL 120,000 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO SPAIN DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA
  •  
  • EXPORTERS SELL 125,000 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

Today the Ukrainian Agricultural Ministry announced that Ukraine has planted 90 percent of the expected winter wheat area. The report showed 5.5 million hectares of winter wheat compared to the 6.15 million hectares that are expected. Harvest pace in France has progressed this week with the latest report from FranceAgriMer reporting that 56 percent of the crop has been harvested, up from 28 percent last week. Soft wheat planting progressed to 47 percent complete up from 20 percent last week.  

 

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Informa released their latest 2018 planting estimates yesterday. Their forecast is for corn plantings next year to be at 90.460 million acres and soybeans at 90.347 planted acres. This compares to the latest WASDE report that shows planted acreage for the 2017 crop at 90.4 million acres for corn and 90.2 million planted acres for soybeans. Informa also estimates  that all wheat acreage planted for the 2018 harvest will be at 45.875.


 

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October 19, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 206

Strong Export Sales for Corn and Wheat This Morning

Grains Traded Slightly Higher in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains traded slightly higher with December corn up 1 cent, November soybeans up 1 cent and December Chicago Wheat up 1 cent. The U.S. forecast shows some chance for precipitation in the eastern Midwest early next week which could slow an already lagging harvest.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 384,000 METRIC TONNES OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR.-USDA

 

Yesterday’s rains favored southern Brazil and more precipitation is expected in the 6-15 day forecast which should ease concerns about dryness in that region. In Argentina however, it was wetter than expected and continues to put pressure on planting which has been delayed due to excessive moisture this season.

 

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Ethanol production over the last week increased sharply to 1.019 million barrels per day from 967 BPD. This was a strong increase from last week and was 2.1 percent above last year during the same time. Ethanol stocks were recorded at 902 million gallons which was down 2 million gallons from last week’s level. However, the drawdown in ethanol stocks which typically starts in September and continues into November hasn’t really happened yet this year. Ethanol stocks have actually increased since the first of September and are now 12.9 percent higher than last year. This is a development that needs to be monitored and brings into question how robust demand is for Ethanol as year-over-year production increases.   

 

 

Export sales for wheat and corn were strong this morning with both grains beating trade expectations. Wheat sales were up sharply this week and were 75 percent over the four week moving average. The majority of wheat sales were to Mexico, China, Unknown Destinations and Japan. Corn export sales beat expectations but declined 21 percent from last week. Soybeans sales missed expectations, down 27 percent from last week with reductions reported from Unknown Destinations and Costa Rica.


 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

615

250-450

Corn

1,254

800-1,100

Soybeans

1,275

1,300-1,700


 

 

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October 18, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 188

Dry Weather in the Midwest Expected to Boost Harvest

Grains Traded Lower in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains traded slightly lower with December corn down ¼ cent, November soybeans down 1 cent and December Chicago wheat down 2 ¼ cents. Dry weather throughout the Midwest is expected to boost harvest pace according to the latest 6-15 day forecast.  

 

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Brazil has received scattered rain in the west and far south yesterday which will continue to aid planting which had been lagging at 12 percent planted due to dry weather. More precipitation is expected in the 11-15 day forecast which should provide widespread benefit for the Brazilian corn and soybean crop. Argentina is expecting showers in the eastern part of the country today but is expected to make progress planting over the next week.  

 

 

The U.S. Wheat Associates has announced that they will be closing their office in Egypt after 40 years. The trade group promotes U.S. wheat exports, but the sharp shift away from U.S wheat in favor of Russia and the Black Sea wheat has shrunk Egypt to the 37th buyer of U.S wheat overall. Egypt held the rank of fifth largest market for U.S. wheat and 2nd largest market for soft red winter wheat as recently as the 2012/13 marketing year. The U.S Wheat Associates is looking at refocusing its efforts toward higher value markets in Asia and Latin America.

 

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October 17, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 342

Latest Crop Progress Report Results

Grains Slide Lower in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains slid lower with December corn down 1 ¼ cents, November Soybeans down 5 ½ cents and December Chicago wheat down ½ penny. The latest forecast shows rain returning to the Midwest in the 11-15 day forecast which should slow an already lagging harvest progress.

 

Exporters sell 115,000 MT of Corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2017/2018 marketing year. Exporters sell 146,000 MT of Corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.-USDA

 

The latest Crop Progress report showed that only 28 percent of corn has been harvested as of October 15th compared to a four year average of 47 percent harvested. Corn condition increased 1 percent to 65 percent rated good-to-excellent. Soybean harvest is moving along a bit faster than corn with 49 percent harvested but is still behind the four year average of 60 percent. Soybean’s rated good-to-excellent held steady at 61 percent this week. The report also showed that 60 percent of wheat has been planted this year which is behind the five year average of 71 percent. There should be more opportunities for fieldwork this week with the forecast showing clear weather through the middle of next week.

 

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The NOPA Crush Report which was released yesterday showed that 136.419 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in the month of September, down 6.005 million bushels from August and below the average analyst guess of 138.071 million bushels. Despite missing expectations this year’s September soybean crush was 6.184 million bushels over last September’s numbers. The NOPA report showed that oil stocks were at 1.302 billion pounds, which was slightly below the expectations of 1.332 billion pounds.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 13, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 145

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 10/13/2017

In the cash market this week there was a bit of buoyancy as river barge markets reverted to more normal pricing and corn harvest ground to a near halt. On the week, soybean basis was up 2 cents while corn basis posted a modest 1-cent advance.

 

With the slow progress for corn harvest, basis levels held mostly stable on the week with some modest gains in the Upper Plains and Western Cornbelt where wet weather has hampered cutting progress. Along the river system, a drop in barge rates helped fuel a big 10-cent advance on the week. But for ethanol plants as a group they were off 1-cent on the week.

 

For soybeans, the river markets also catapulted higher by 16 cents a bushel from last week’s disastrous readings. Soy crush plants added 2 cents a bushel as a group but plants located closer to river markets followed higher with double digit gains.

 

Harvest delays are still expected as this weekend should bring rain into the NW part of the grain belt. Some localized flooding is possible, especially in central and southern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Missouri, and northwestern Illinois. This could continue to provide support to corn basis.

 

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October 13, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 375

Soybeans Advance Over News from USDA

Chicago Soybean Futures Rose on Friday

In the overnight session, Dec Corn was up 1.5 cents, Nov Soybeans were up 3.75 cents and Dec Wheat was up a little over 1 cent.

 

Chicago soybean futures rose on Friday, a day after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) unexpectedly cut its forecast of the US soy crop. The USDA report put out a bullish yield number for the US crop of 49.5 bushels an acre, down from last month’s forecast of 49.9 bushels. Corn was weakened by the USDA’s expectation of a larger US crop, while wheat was underpinned by improving export prospects for US supplies.

 

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China, the world’s top soybean buyer, imported 8.1 million tonnes of the oilseed in September, up 12.7 percent on a year ago, after crushers saw margins improve over the summer and anticipated healthy demand for soymeal from hog farms. The September figure brings imports for the 2016/17 crop year, running from October to September, to 93.5 million tonnes, well above the prior year’s 83.2 million, and another record, according to Reuters calculations.

 

Net Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

175

300-500

Corn

1,593

800-1,100

Soybeans

1,747

900-1,200

 

 

Wheat net sales of 175,000 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2017/18 were down 65 percent from the previous week. Corn net sales of 1,593,200 MT for 2017/18 were reported; Soybean net sales of 1,747,300 MT for 2017/18 were reported.

 

US consumer prices recorded their biggest increase in eight months in September as gasoline prices soared in the wake of hurricane-related production disruptions at oil refineries in the Gulf Coast area, but underlying inflation remained muted. The increase was the largest since June 2009 and followed a 6.3 percent advance in August. The Labor Department said Harvey was reported to have impacted refinery capacity in the Gulf Coast.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 12, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 338

USDA Supply and Demand Report Due Out Today at 11 am CST

Grains Mostly Stable in the Overnight Session

Grains mostly stable in the overnight session with Corn unchanged, Nov Soybeans up 2.5 cents and Dec Wheat down three-quarters of a cent.

 

Exporters sell 120,000 MT of Corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2017/2018 marketing year-USDA

 

Whenever the US Department of Agriculture updates supply and demand outlooks, adjustments to the US corn and soybean production typically steal the spotlight from other items on the global balance sheets at this time of year. But, since the market expects marginal changes to these usual favorites, elements outside the US-particularly in wheat-may be the ones moving the world balance sheets this month. -states an analyst from Reuters

 

The US Department of Agriculture will release its monthly supply and demand estimates along with the US crop production report at 11 am CST. Analysts predict on average that the US Corn and Soybean harvests will each rise by fractions of a percent.

 

At the world level, the trade expects USDA to slightly trim 2017/2018 global ending stocks for wheat, corn and soybeans, the latter to the greatest degree at 1 percent. There could be some opposing movement in the grains, however, as adverse weather may have hurt Southern Hemispheric wheat crops. But losses could be offset with a potential supply expansion, especially in India, and China’s massive inventory always has the power to swing the wheat and corn balances. Although adjustments to US corn supply are expected to be minor, possible tweaks on the demand side could prove more influential to domestic stocks. -Reuters


 

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China on Thursday increased the forecast for its deficit in corn supply in the 2017/2018 crop year to 4.31 million tonnes from the 890,000 tonnes predicted last month, stoked by lower-than expected output and higher anticipated demand. Corn output is expected to drop to 210.1 million tonnes versus last month’s forecast of 212.48 million tonnes, the agriculture ministry said, adding that less land had been planted with corn than earlier thought following reduced government support.

In the weather, rains return this weekend, slowing Midwest corn/soy harvest; however, drier pattern next week aids recovery. Plains hard red winter wheat seeding improving with drier pattern next 10 days, but brief rains early in weekend. Rains expected to return in 11-15 day, slowing Midwest corn/soy harvest and Plains hard red winter wheat seeding.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 11, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 277

Grains Continue to Inch Lower in the Overnight Session

USDA Supply and Demand Report Out Tomorrow

Grains continued to inch lower overnight with corn down 1, beans off fractionally and wheat down 2.

 

USDA reported 264,000 MT of soybeans sold to China, 132,000 MT to unknown destinations. They also reported a 150,000 MT of corn to Mexico and 104,202 MT of Hard Red Winter Wheat to Mexico.

 

Yesterday after the market closed USDA released their crop progress report. The soybean crop was at 36% harvested up from 22% last week but behind the 5-year average pace of 43%. Meanwhile, corn gained little ground going from 17% last week to 22% this week, and well below the 37% normal pace for this time of year.

 

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Tomorrow will bring fresh input from USDA on the supply and demand situation. Traders look for fractionally higher production figures in the US and a slight cut to ending stocks thanks to smaller than expected old-crop stocks from USDA’s September Quarterly Stocks report.

 

Brazilian farmers will likely produce a smaller amount of corn and soy in the 2017/18 season due to less favorable weather than the prior crop year, food supply and statistics agency Conab said on Tuesday. In its first forecast for the 2017/18 crop, Conab estimated Brazilian grain production at between 224.1 million tonnes and 228.2 million tonnes, compared with 238.5 million tonnes in the prior cycle. The lower end of the range would represent a 6 percent drop in output. "The highly favorable climate conditions that contributed to a record grain output last season are unlikely to be repeated," Conab said in a statement.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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Weekly Cash Comments

October 20, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew

Grain basis took a break from last week’s sell-off to mostly stabilize as slow harvesting keeps pipeline supplies relatively limited, especially for corn. On the week, there was no change in corn and soybean basis on average across the US.

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Weekly Cash Comments

October 13, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew

In the cash market this week there was a bit of buoyancy as river barge markets reverted to more normal pricing and corn harvest ground to a near halt. On the week, soybean basis was up 2 cents while corn basis posted a modest 1-cent advance.

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