March 08, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 263

March WASDE Report Due Out Today

Grains Pare Overnight Losses


Grains pare overnight losses after strong export sales.

March WASDE report due out at 11 AM CST

Exporters sell 110,000 metric tons of Corn for delivery to Japan during the 2017/2018 marketing year.


Argentina Weather

Showers are expected over the weekend, but meaningful moisture will be localized and in Northern Argentina.

Latest weather model showed an increase of precipitation is expected in Buenos Aires, central and the northeastern growing region next Thursday through Friday.



Ethanol Production increased to 1.057 million barrels per day from 1.044 MBPD.

Weekly production was 3.4% over LY during same week.

The increase in production over the last few weeks brings total production 2.5 percent over LY.  

U.S. ending stocks increased to 972 million gallons from 965 million gallons LW.



Export Sales

Corn and soybeans beat export sales expectations by a large margin.

Corn sales increased 8 percent compared to last week on strong buying from Japan, Mexico, Taiwan and Vietnam.

China accounted for 1.2 MMT of soybean sales this week.   

  Actual Estimated
Corn 1,857 1,000-1,500
Soybeans 2,509 900-1,400
Wheat 391 200-500


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 07, 2018 | Coach’s Corner | Greg Martinelli | Views: 1193

Your Sales Team Needs Some R&R

That’s Rejection & Resilience – not Rest & Relaxation

Your Sales Team Needs Some R&R

Rejection and Resilience go hand in hand in every salesperson’s career. We know we won’t sell 100% of our prospects. Early in sales training we’re taught by well meaning instructors that the prospect is rejecting our offer or our products and not us. Not always true. Since people buy from people, it’s easy to see that sometimes, we are rejected because the prospect just doesn’t like us. Resilience is the tool to pull out of your toolbox when this happens. You have a choice, cut your losses and move on to another prospect or persist through the rejection to see if the sale can be salvaged. Knowing when to do either of those choices is the Art of the Sale. Short of getting kicked out of the prospect’s place of business, there is no definitive line that tells you it’s time to persist or time to move on. It’s a gut feeling and you will get better over time. 

Special note for the experienced sales person: since you have an established territory with customers that love you, the trap you can fall into is to cut and run on prospects too soon. Whether it’s ego or lack of desire to chase prospects, you will need to pay special attention at re-energizing your Resilience. Try not to forget those early years when you did what it took to build your territory.

Key Points

Keep Digging

The buzzword in sales training is sell on “value." Find out what the customer values and then position your products to that value. If they won’t buy from you, then you haven’t found it. Keep asking questions. Keep building trust. One of the easiest ways to determine what a prospect values is to look at what they currently buy. You know your competitors well enough to determine why prospects buy from them. If not, ask the prospect. Start with the positive before you ask about the negative. For example, “What do you like about XYZ’s products?” or “How did you decide to use their products?” After some discussion, then you can start asking about what they don’t like or what their current supplier lacks.


We are in a very seasonal business and need to be aware of our prospect’s schedule.  Salespeople often get themselves in trouble with a prospect by trying to go too fast or too slow. Going too fast occurs when the salesperson is unaware of his sales style or is trying to meet an internal deadline. For example, your company has set the order deadline for your new product at the end of the month. It’s two days before the end of the month and you are beating down the doors of your prospects trying to beat the deadline. Unfortunately, the prospect doesn’t care about your deadline. 

Going too slow is often a bigger problem. Salespeople are so worried about being too pushy, they actual go too slow. The prospect loses interest, time goes by and the confused prospect ends up deciding against your products.

To solve this, keep checking with your prospect at each call on timing. Then stay accountable to the dates they give you.

Special Case #1: “I did business with your company in the past and I wasn’t happy.”

Dig in and find out what happened. Is it still an issue? Is it something recent enough that you need to "make it right." I ran into prospects that had all the paperwork they needed to return products or get a credit back on their account. They were unhappy with our company. Instead of calling us and fixing the problem, they simply quit buying from us. These are great opportunities to show them how you operate by fixing the problem. Then go into the sales process with them.

Special Case #2: “I did business with YOU in the past and wasn’t happy.”

This situation is a little more difficult as you have first hand experience with this prospect. However, they gave you an appointment to come back and call on them. That’s a good sign. Maybe they left you in anger or haste and now want to come back and be a customer again. For whatever reason, they want to return to you. One critical factor in this situation is to allow the prospect to save face. Understand their desire to come back, but do not rub it in that you were right or they should have stayed with you. They are coming back and that’s all that matters. Let the past stay in the past.

Sales R & R will make the difference in your success. We will all meet Resistance at some point. Currently in agribusiness, we are experiencing tough times for farmers, which means tough times for us. Resistance to spend money on our products is high, which means you need to master the other R – Resilience.

March 05, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 544

C and S Plains Wheat Not Favored for Rain in Next Two Weeks

March Soybeans and Wheat Up in the Overnight


  • Argentina weather forecast remains dry
  • Kansas to remain dry this week
  • Brazil fieldwork behind LY pace  



  • Weather forecast shows continued dryness over the next week.
  • Chances of precipitation at the end of next week, but weather models do not align and confidence in event remains low.
  • Everyday without precipitation reduces production.



  • Weather forecast mostly unchanged.  
  • Persistent rains in northern Brazil are expected to continue to slow fieldwork.


Brazil Fieldwork Progress

  • Ag Rural estimates 35 percent of soybean area has been harvested compared to 47 percent LY.
  • Ag Rural estimates that 63 percent of second corn area has been planted behind 75 percent LY.
  • Ag Rural estimates 24 percent of first corn area in the center south region of Brazil has been harvested compared to 29 percent LY.  


Southern Plains Weather

  • The major Kansas Wheat producing region has remained bone dry over the weekend with no measurable rain recorded in Kansas, Oklahoma and the panhandle of Texas.
  • Weather is expected to remain dry over the central plains this week as temperatures increase.
  • Chances of precipitation in eastern half of Kansas in the beginning of next week.  


Latest South America Production Forecasts Informa

  • Argentina 17/18 soybean production forecast lowered to 44 MMT from 51 MMT.
  • Argentina 17/18 corn production forecast lowered to 33.5 MMT from 37 MMT.
  • Brazil 17/18 soybean production forecast lifted to 114 MMT from 112.5 MMT.
  • Brazil 17/18 corn production forecast lifted to 89 MMT from 88 MMT


Commitments of Traders- Managed Money

  • For the week ending Feb 27th, Managed Money increased their net long position in corn by 40,446 contracts to 59,120.
  • The net long MM soybean position increased by 48,270 to 147,380 contracts.
  • The net short MM position in Chicago wheat was reduced by 6,408 to -60,632.
  • The net long KCBT wheat position was reduced by 2,133 contracts to 11,008.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 02, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 719

US Trade Restrictions in the Spotlight

Soybeans Up in the Overnight Session

Market Action


  • Beans test new highs for the move, old-crop corn was flat but Dec backs off
  • US Trade restrictions in the spotlight
  • Argentina Soy crop pegged at 44 MMT down from 47 MMT previously
  • Trump on both sides of RFS and Big Oil fight?


Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!



US Trade

  • Trump said on Thursday he would impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on imported aluminum next week, in a move intended to protect U.S. industry. But, critics said it would fail to boost jobs and risked stoking a trade war with China.
  • “Signs of growing tensions between the United States and China may be a good opportunity for Brazil given our prowess to produce grains like soy and corn,” said Carlos Favaro, Mato Grosso Vice Governor.
  • China needs US Beans, so a black swan like event trade war with China on beans seems unlikely, but worth paying attention to. Any retaliation on US soybeans is a game changer.




  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange slashed the country’s soy crop on Thursday to 44 MMT vs 47 last week, but maintained corn at 37 MMT.
  • Weather forecasts are still dry. However, the GFS US weather model keeps trying to introduce better rain chances in the 10-14 day period. The GFS calls for .25-1.25” which is not the soaking rain that is needed, but would help stabilize crops.
  • Upside still exists for old-crop beans as crop size continues to deteriorate.



RFS vs Big Oil


  • Yesterday’s White House meeting between Big Oil and Ethanol execs appears to be a compromise solution that would advance E-15 blends ‘somehow’ and
  • cap RIN prices.
  • Raising the blend to E-15 but capping the RINs is a difficult policy perspective to comprehend. You can’t seem to enforce blend behavior by refiners if you create a price limit on RINs, so as it stands the policy announcement has the trade confused.
  • Trump wants policy initiatives to be formalized by next week. So stay tuned, but on the surface more blend potential is bullish corn.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 01, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 469

Brazil is Expected to Export 68 Million Tonnes of Soybeans in 2018

Grains Mixed in the Overnight Session

Market Action

  • Grains mixed in the overnight session.
  • Strong buying in the grain complex could have been amplified by funds “window dressing” at the end of the month.
  • Exporters sell 120,000 MT of Soybeans for delivery to China of which 60,000 MT is for 2017/2018 marketing year delivery, 60,000 MT for 2018/2019 delivery. -USDA
  • Exporters sell 126,000 MT of Soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations of which 63,000 MT is for 2017/2018 delivery, 63,000 MT is for 2018/2019 delivery. -USDA


  • Weather forecast expects dryness to remain dominant into next week for major production regions. Some light precipitation possible starting in the south and moving north Sunday into Monday.
  • Recent model suggests increased rainfall starting next Thursday  and continuing into the following Monday in southern and central Argentina.


  • Unchanged forecast; frequent showers are expected to slow fieldwork.
  • Tues and Wed will provide opportunities for fieldwork in southern Brazil.
  • Conditions are dry in southern Rio Grande do Sul.   


RFS Meeting at White House Today 12 CST

  • Pres. Trump called another meeting at White House for today to discuss RFS.
  • Meeting includes representatives from oil and corn industries along with key Senators.
  • Discussion may include options such as exports to count as biofuel credits and for E15 to be sold year-round.  


  • Ethanol production slipped to 1.044 million barrels per day from 1.068 MBPD LW.
  • Ethanol production was above LY same week production by 1 percent.
  • Jan, Feb ethanol production has only run .5 percent ahead of LY pace which is a decline from the Sep-Dec period that produced 4.3 percent more ethanol than the same period LY.
  • Ethanol stocks increased to 965 million gallons from 956 million gallons LW.
  • Ethanol stocks are now below LY levels for the first time this marketing year, however still near record highs.  

Export Sales

  • Corn and soybean export sales strongly beat analyst expectations, improving over last week.
  • Wheat sales disappointed analysts falling 42 percent from last week.

Weekly Export Sales-














The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

February 28, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 421

Plains Showers Limited to Fringes of Hard Red Wheat Belt Next Two Weeks

Corn Wheat and Soybeans Up This Morning


  • Wheat market sharply higher on dry HRW region and excess moisture in SRW regions.
  • Grassley says “No Deal” following White House meeting.
  • Weather outlook mostly unchanged in SA
  • Exporters sell 250,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year. -USDA


HRW Wheat

  • Kansas City Wheat is trading sharply higher this morning due to yesterday's lower crop condition ratings and forecast for continued dryness in the Plains.
  • Kansas City Wheat will be VERY vulnerable to continued dryness as it breaks dormancy.
  • March precipitation outlook shows continued dryness in the Plains states.


  • Yesterday evening GFS weather model run suggested little change from previous forecast.
  • Potential band of showers could move from south to north this weekend. However, widespread precipitation is not likely and any meaningful rain is expected to be localized.
  • Significant rain is expected in the far northwestern part of Argentina. This region has not been the area most affected by the drought.


  • Unchanged weather outlook.
  • Continued showers across the country into next week causing some fieldwork delays for soybean harvest and second crop corn planting.

No Deal on Biofuels Yet

  • Meeting on Tuesday was at the White House between Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Charles Grassley and Joni Ernst.
  • Ted Cruz said the meeting was “positive and productive” while Grassley tweeted “No Deal Made” and said the proposals were not a “win win”
  • President Trump has called for more talks between the representatives.  

CME Declares Force Majeure

  • Significant rainfall over the last week eastern corn-belt has raised water levels and caused moderate and major river and stream flooding.
  • Yesterday the CME declared a conditional Force Majeure at all wheat shipping locations on the Ohio river due to “load-out impossibility at a majority of Wheat regular shipping stations”.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

February 27, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 352

USDA Shows Slight Monthly decline in Kansas Wheat Ratings

Grains were Up in the Overnight Session


  • KCBT wheat breaks through Feb 20th highs on poor US crop ratings and expectations are for continued dry weather.
  • Significant rainfall has led to reported flooding along the river systems.
  • Exporters sell 130,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year. -USDA

Wheat Conditions Deteriorate Further

  • Kansas HRW wheat rated 12 percent good-to-excellent down 2 percent from Jan. Wheat rated poor-to-very poor throughout Kansas increased 5 points to 49.
  • Oklahoma HRW wheat rated 4 percent good-to-excellent was unchanged from Jan. Wheat rated poor-to-very poor in the state declined by 1 point to 78 percent.  
  • Drought conditions are expected to worsen this week across Kansas.
  • Temperatures should drop sharply mid-week in the central and Volga regions of Russia. Good snow cover should protect the crop from any damage.   

More U.S. Rain in Delta and Midwest

  • Significant rain over the last month in the eastern Midwest and Delta regions has saturated the soil and caused flooding along the Illinois, Ohio, Tennessee and Lower Mississippi.
  • Last week the CME declared a Force Majeure along the Illinois river as flooding halted barge loading activity.
  • More precipitation is expected through Thursday which will increase flood conditions on the Tennessee and lower Mississippi.
  • Drier conditions from Friday through the weekend will help, but cooler temperatures next week which will slow drying.    


  • Central production areas will remain dry through the weekend.
  • Latest weather model suggests increased rain during second weekend of March.
  • Significant rainfall is expected in the far northern part of Argentina for the remainder of the week.
  • Driest areas are expected to remain dry over the next week.
  • Temperatures are expected to cool next week.  


  • Frequent showers will benefit crop development but slow fieldwork.

Export Inspections

  • Wheat export inspections disappointed while corn inspections beat analyst expectations.
  • Soybean export inspections met expectations

Actual Inspections

Analyst Estimate











The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

February 26, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 373

Soybeans Higher on Worries about Declining Crop Prospects

Grains Higher in the Overnight Session


  • Argentina remains dry
  • Brazil fieldwork continues to be slowed by rains
  • May Soybeans breaks through highs set on July 12th 2017.
  • China customs data shows U.S. loses market share to Brazil in January
  • KCBT wheat finds support on 20 day moving average.
  • Exporters sell 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during 2017/2018 marketing year.
  • Exporters sell 125,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year. -USDA


  • Dry weather was persistent over the weekend in the majority of the growing regions. However, some precipitation fell in northeastern La Pampa, Western Cordoba and northwest Santiago del Estero.
  • The weather forecast expects some erratic and light precipitation from Tuesday through Sunday. Rains are not expected to provide the precipitation needed to stop crop stress.
  • Temperatures should stay mild with highs of 80’s and 90’s this week.
  • Longer term forecast is for more precipitation in March, but may be too late to turn around production.


  • Recent rain continues to delay soybean harvest and second crop corn planting.
  • Temperatures remain seasonable over the next couple weeks.
  • Rains and scattered showers are expected to continue over the next week.   

Commitments of Traders

  • Managed money (MM) is no longer net short in the corn and soybean market.
  • MM net corn position is 18,674 from -10,615 last week.
  • MM net soybean position is 99,111 from 56,242 last week.
  • MM net Chicago wheat position is -67,039 from -56,830 last week.
  • MM net KCBT wheat position is 13,141 down from 14,726 last week.

Soybean Exports to China

  • China soybean imports from the U.S. in Jan fell 14 percent from last year.
  • China soybean imports from Brazil in Jan increased dramatically to 2.07 MMT.
  • Customs data showed China imported 5.82 MMT of US soybeans which accounted for 67 percent of all soybean imports in Jan. Last year U.S. soybeans accounted for 88.5 percent of soybean imports during January.
  • Brazil’s large soybean crop last year and preferred protein levels seems to be the main cause of the move.   


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

February 23, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 269

Weekly Commentary for February 23rd

Week Ending Commentary for February 23rd

Basis continued to stagnate this week as the board continues to keep pipeline supplies well stocked for the near-term. On the week, US average corn basis nudged higher by 0.5 cents a bushel while soy basis softened by 0.3 cents a bushel.


The only major action this week occurred along export sensitive routes as corn basis caught a bid. The Gulf and PNW markets each were up, gaining 5 and 7 cents respectively on the week. River markets followed suit with a 4.5 cent basis improvement. However, heavy rains and melting snow-pack are likely going to cause barge problems in the coming week. Barge lines suspended operations on northern sections of the Illinois River on Thursday and several grain elevators along the lower Ohio River stopped loading barges because the rising river made it impossible for the vessels to get beneath grain spouts. For beans, basis levels were mostly flat at export origins and river terminals. Gulf basis continues to be soft as values trade at their lowest February levels since 2008.


For end users, there was little noticeable movement for corn or bean plants, although beans plants had a slight negative bias. Crush margin for soy plants have catapulted high, with values trading around $1.50 a bushel vs $0.85 a bushel last fall. With Argentina’s #1 position for soymeal exporting in jeopardy there should be considerable interest in the latter half of the marketing year for US meal supplies.


Basis levels for corn should start to perk up as we get closer to spring. The board rally in the last month has helped end users meet their needs but as flat prices stall out this should put the onerous on buyers to bid up basis to keep their needs met.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

February 23, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 532

Soybeans Miss Export Sales Expectations Sharply

Grains Up in the Overnight Session

Drought Monitor

Latest U.S Drought Monitor shows Kansas increased moderate drought.

Oklahoma is unchanged with 37.8 percent of the state in extreme drought. (Rains in eastern Oklahoma after Tuesday were not included in latest run)

Texas drought lessened with rains in the east, but panhandle still in mostly extreme drought.

South America

Argentina expected to remain dry through Wednesday. Showers late next week are likely but may not be widespread.  

Buenos Aires grain exchange revised Argentina 17/18 corn and soybean harvest lower.  

Soybean production estimated at 47 MMT from 50 MMT.

Corn production estimated at 37 MMT from 39 MMT.

Brazil harvest will make its largest progress in the southern part of the state. However, precipitation is expected through most other production areas from Friday through next Thursday.


Ethanol production jumped to 1.068 million barrels/day this week from 1.016 million barrels per day.

Weekly ethanol stocks decreased to 956 million gallons from 961 million gallons.

Stocks are at the lowest level in five weeks despite production jump. Large stocks have been a concern this year with stocks earlier this marketing year running as much as 20 percent above last year.    


Export Sales

Soybeans missed expectations sharply by recording net reductions of 109,100 MT

Corn export sales beat expectations but were down 21 percent from last week.

Wheat sales were up 6 percent week over week and met expectations.


Weekly Export Sales-














The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


Page 1 of 163 pages  1 2 3 >  Last ›

More Articles