November 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 75

Chicago Soybean Futures Were Higher on Friday

Wheat prices were little changed

“If the old adage “big crops become bigger” rings true, the bearish supply narrative for US corn and soybeans will flourish all the way into January, and possibly beyond.” -News out of Chicago this a.m.

 

US trade expectations for the resumption of grain and soy complex trading at the CBOT on Friday.  WHEAT - Steady to up 2 cents per bushel. Some bargain buying is expected after two days of losses pushed market to 2 ½ week low. But ample global supplies, low export demand for US offerings keep gains in check.

 

Chicago soybean futures were higher on Friday, boosted by concerns about planting delays in Argentina and a rise in palm oil prices to the highest level in more than four years.  

 

Wheat prices were little changed and remained on track for a weekly loss while corn futures eased as ample supplies kept both markets on the defensive. Dealers say the market was boosted by strong palm oil prices, with Malaysian futures rising to their highest level in more than four years on Friday due to low stocks.


 

Argentine farmers are expected to plant 19.6 million hectares with soybeans this season, down 2.5 percent from the previous crop year as growers pile into corn and wheat...the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.

 

Brazil’s official crop supply agency, Conab, forecast Brazil early next year would harvest a soybean crop of 101.6 MT to 103.5 MT, down slightly from its outlook of 101.9 to 104.0 MT last month.

 

OPEC reported an increase in its oil production in October to a record high led by members hoping to be exempt from the producer group’s attempt to curb supply, pointing to an even larger global surplus next year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 33.64 million barrels per day last month, according to figures OPEC collects from secondary sources, up 240,000 bpd from September, OPEC said in a monthly report.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 152

USDA Predicts Largest Corn Yield to Date

Rain Delays Wheat Harvest in Australia

"A lot of the bearish news is out there, so how much more bearish can you be when we know there is a lot of grain and oilseeds?" --News out of Chicago this a.m.

 

Palm oil stocks rose 1.7% for the month, but were expected to be up 8%, so bullish for Palm Oil, bullish for beans.

 

The monthly crop production report on Wednesday, the USDA struck down analysts' assumptions of a shrinking domestic corn crop with a yield projection of 175.3 bushels per acre, some 1 percent higher than both last month's estimate and market expectations. This figure marks the largest prediction of corn yield to date from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

 

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Exporters sell 126,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during 2016/2017 marketing year.  Exporters sell 140,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Saudi Arabia during 2016/2017 marketing year.--USDA

 

Rain is delaying the wheat harvest in parts of Australia, threatening to disrupt deliveries from the world's #4 exporter of the grain to key markets. Expecting a near-record crop of close to 30 MT, exporters had sold new-crop wheat for shipment in Nov and Dec.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES-

                                       Actual             Expected

Corn                         1,233 Current

                                1,282 New           1,100-1,400

Soybeans                  1,001 Current

                                1,247 New           1,700-2,000

Wheat                        769 Current

                                  787 New                300-500

 


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

November 09, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 194
November 09, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 93

Markets Roil in the Overnight; Reaction to the Election

Mexican Peso has the biggest fallout

Markets roiled overnight in reaction to Trump’s election but by early morning some of the market capitulation had waned. At one point, S&P futures were off 6%, the USD off 2.3% and soybeans fell as much as 17 cents before climbing back to more tempered losses heading into the morning trade.

 

Turning to ag news, today brings fresh crop data from USDA. Traders look for a bump in US soy production and carry-out while corn is expected to see steady to lower carry-out on a slightly production decline. Baring some big production figures from USDA the trend seems to be building toward bullish in grains as demand remains robust and big production figures are factored in.

 

In international news, the Mexican peso has had the biggest fallout from the Trump victory as the currency is currently off 8% against the USD, although at one point it was off as much as 12% overnight. This potentially poses problems for US corn demand as Mexico has been a major buyer in recent months. So far year-to-date export sales to Mexico have totaled 7.1 MMT (or 28% of total US sales) versus last year at this time of 5.3 MMT. Is this at risk now?

Weather shows rains for the next two weeks for about two-third’s of Brazil which is positive for crop conditions, while soggy parts of southern Argentina are expected to dry out in the coming weeks.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 107
November 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 84

Soybean Harvest at 93% Complete

Tomorrow's Crop Report Expected to Show a Bump in Soybean Yields

Election Tuesday saw beans continue to the upside while corn and wheat had marginal gains. In outside markets, equity futures were slightly lower following yesterday’s sharp advances while crude and the USD had a slight dip in early trade.

 

USDA announced a 116,100 MT of soybean meal to the Dominican Republic.

 

Yesterday after the close, USDA reported the US soybean harvest at 93% complete versus 91% normal for this time of year and corn at 86% versus 85% normal. Winter wheat ratings held steady at the national level but saw rather sharp drops in CO & NE as drought starts to be an issue heading into dormancy.

 

Ukrainian 2016/17 grain exports could be 7 MMT lower than originally expected due to logistical difficulties and some companies have already redirected shipments from Ukraine to other countries, traders said on Tuesday. Ukraine had planned to ship abroad around 41 MMT this season vs 39 last year. Volodymyr Klymenko, the head of Ukrainian grain traders union UZA said a lack of railway grain wagons and a tightening of the rules on grain transportation by trucks were the main obstacles to exports.


 

Egypt’s GASC was in the market for wheat and got 7 offers. The lowest at $186.98 came from a Russian firm but a US offer of SRW for $187 was not far off the mark.

 

The crop report tomorrow is expected to show a bump in soybean yields and carryout while corn numbers are on average expected to be mostly unchanged.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 90
November 07, 2016 | Kevin McNew | Views: 91

Fresh Export Deals this Morning

Grains were mixed overnight as soybeans posted solid gains to start the week while corn and soybeans drifted lower. Outside markets reacted sharply to the weekend announcement that the FBI would not change its view on Clinton’s emails. This sent equity markets sharply higher and gave the US Dollar and crude oil a big bounce.

 

USDA announced a 172,000 MT sale of corn, a 132,000 MT of soybeans and a 135,000 MT of soymeal this morning.

 

Palm oil traded higher as did other Asian veg oil markets, helping lift soybean futures. Rains are expected in the coming days in Argentina to add to the flooding woes for farmers there. The north-central La Pampa and far
southern Cordoba had seen a record 20 inches of rain during the month of October and 16 inches of that occurred in a 12-day period. Some are suggesting the Argentine wheat crop could be in the low 13 MMT range vs USDA at 14.4.  But, in Brazil weather continues to be mostly favorable with 53% of the soy crop planted versus a 5-year average of 49%

 

Grain markets will look to USDA on Wednesday for their latest crop estimates,. Traders expect soybean yields to be bumped by 0.6 bushels per acre to 52.0 but also look for higher exports. Overall the trade is expecting carryout to go from 400 to 420 MB. For corn, analysts are mixed on yield, with the average estimate showing a 0.2 bushels per acre decline to 173.2

 

Stocks and the dollar posted their biggest gains in weeks on Monday after the FBI said it stood by a recommendation that no criminal charges were warranted against Hillary Clinton. The news lifted a cloud over the Democrat's presidential campaign two days before the U.S. election and put Wall Street firmly on track to snap a nine-day losing streak

November 04, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 69
November 04, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 144

Robust Export Pace Continues

Grains drifted lower overnight in lackluster trade while in outside markets crude oil hit its lowest mark since Sept 20. Equities and the US Dollar posted modest gains.

Expectations continue to mount for a growing soybean production figure in USDA’s November crop report next Wednesday. Yesterday, Informa boosted their soybean production forecast to 52.4 bushels per acre versus USDA in October of 51.4 and Informa’s October forecast of 51.6. However,export pace continues to be robust with 4 of the past 5 weekly sales showing better than 2 MMT of soybean sales. Historically, USDA tends to underestimate exports in the November report versus a report 6 months later in the season in May. In the past 10 years, USDA has been lower in their November forecast in 7 of those years versus the May forecast, and on average they’ve missed the mark by 65 MB.

 

table

 

 

Overnight Japan bought 153,156 MT of food wheat in a usual tender. Of the total 58,800 MT is from the US while the rest goes to Canada and Australia.

Equity markets continue to be defensive ahead of the US election on Tuesday. With the polls tightening investors remain cautious about the outcome and potential implications of each candidate. This morning US jobless numbers were a bit disappointing as new jobs grew 161,000 but were below expectations of 175,000 and last month’s reading of 191,000.

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