February 08, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 98
February 08, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 154

Soybeans Continue to Strengthen

Crude Oil Continues to Slip Lower

Soybeans continued to strengthen overnight while corn and wheat slipped lower following yesterday’s positive gains. In outside markets crude oil continued to slip lower hitting its lowest mark since December.

 

China will consume more corn in 2016/17 than previously forecast as demand for the grain in livestock feed will rise after China slapped anti-dumping duties on U.S. distiller's dried grains, an influential report said on Wednesday, pushing up prices.  In a daily report, the China's National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC), an official think-tank, raised its estimate for corn consumption for the 2016/17 season to end-September to 197.6 million tonnes, up 21 million tonnes from the 2015/16 year. The forecast is up by 500,000 tonnes from a previous estimate made in January.

Brazil has begun its 2016/17 soybean exports as it looks to start off-loading what should be a record-large harvest. The shipping schedule on the docket for February is rather aggressive, but there is good reason to believe that soybean exports will push to new highs for the month. Brazil, the leading exporter of soybeans, is expected to ship roughly 60 million tonnes of the oilseed over the next year – some 17 percent greater than the country’s 2015/16 effort.

India has bought more than five million tonnes of wheat since mid-2016, already its biggest annual purchase in a decade, after it began an import campaign to meet a supply shortfall left by two years of lower production. The country is slowing down imports ahead of the harvest in April and purchases in the months ahead will depend on production this year, two traders told Reuters on Wednesday.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

February 07, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 103
February 07, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 95

Monday Saw Good Export Inspections

Grains Were Mildly Weaker in Overnight Trade

Monday Saw Good Export Inspections

Grains were mildly weaker in overnight trade, while the US dollar surged to a one-week high.

 

USDA reports a 128,000 MT sale of corn to Japan.

 

Monday saw good export inspections but did little to lift corn and wheat prices. Wheat exports were 618,235 vs trade expectations ranging from 200-400,000 MT while corn had an impressive week of 1,113,212 as compared to 700-1,000,000 MT expected by the trade. Soybean exports also posted a solid week with 1,635,714 exported as compared to 900-1,200,000 MT expected.

In overnight news, South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 55,000 tonnes of soymeal to be sourced from South America in a deal on Friday. An Ethiopian government tender to buy 400,000 tonnes of wheat which closed on Tuesday received a lowest offer of $219.68 per tonne c&f for the May shipment consignment, with the lowest offer from the Black Sea region. Japan's Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 111,522 tonnes of food quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

The Euro had its biggest decline of 2017 sending the US dollar higher. The single currency shed 0.8 percent EUR=EBS against the dollar, with investors fearing far-right, eurosceptic candidate Marine Le Pen was gaining momentum before France's presidential election on May 7.
 


 

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February 06, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 161

Grains Start the Week Higher

Soybeans Shot Higher by a Dime

Grains Start the Week Higher

Grains were higher to start the week as soybeans shot higher by a dime in overnight trade while wheat and corn posted modest gains.

 

China will promote high-quality, branded farm products as it reforms its agricultural sector to meet demand from a growing middle class and boost rural incomes, the government's first policy statement of the year shows.
Beijing is trying to modernize its sprawling farm sector, the world's largest, and re-balance output away from basic grains towards foods such as meat, dairy and other value-added products increasingly in demand from its urbanizing population.

Russia’s wheat prices were stable last week as weather was not damaging to the winter wheat crop. Prices there were unchanged for the week at $186 fob.

In Brazil, Mato Grasso sees harvest progress quickly as the crop is 34 percent harvested, up from 14 percent last week.


 

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February 03, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 89
February 03, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 74

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 02/03/2017

Grain basis levels continue to be steady as ample farmer supplies and large commercial stockpiles are keeping basis levels in check. This week, no major movement in either corn or soybean basis as recent strength in futures prices since the first of the year have kept pipeline supplies well fed.

 

In the Western Cornbelt, corn basis continues to trade much weaker than normal for this time of year as reports of ground piles by commercials from NE to MN continue to suggest no near term end in sight of basis doldrums. In Iowa, corn plants saw losses of 3 to 5 cents for the past week. The only bright spot continues to be export business which has been picking up of late and keeping basis levels at river terminals more resilient.

 

For soybeans, the slide in futures prices this week helped stabilize the rout in basis that has happened in recent weeks. Basis levels in soybeans are also running 30 cents a bushel less than the same time last year. This week did see some improvement in river terminal basis especially along the OH & IL rivers. Soy crushing plants continue to struggle with weak meal demand and have limited enthusiasm for pushing spot soy basis higher.  

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

 

February 03, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 75

Grain Markets Mostly Weaker

US Dollar Index Pushed above 100

Grain markets were mostly weaker as corn and wheat were in negative territory while beans was making a late session move back into positive ground. In outside markets the US Dollar index pushed above 100 while crude oil and equities were posting modest gains.

 

Yesterday saw corn trade in a narrow range following Wednesday’s sharp move higher. The $3.70 area has proven to be a formidable match for any rallies over the past 4 months and we need a close above this to see some potential to reverse the choppy two-sided pattern.

 

Weather for the Southern Hemisphere continues to be good for crops as rains return to Argentina bring relief to the dry areas that need it although the previously flooded areas that have just dried down are hoping the totals are not excessive. Rains will push into the NE area of Brazil which is needed and otherwise conditions are favorable with bean harvest proceeding around regular rain events which have slowed the pace of both bean harvest and second crop corn planting. However, on the plus side Brazil farmers have been slow to sell as the Brazilian Real has rallied helping erode domestic prices.

Statscan, using a farmer survey, pegged canola stocks in commercial and on-farm storage as of Dec. 31, 2016 at 12.2 million tonnes, matching trade expectations and declining 10 percent year-over-year.

 

This morning’s jobs report came in better than expected as US Labor Dept pegged 227,000 new jobs in January but the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.8%.  

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

February 02, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 64
February 02, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 164

Grains Drifted Lower for Most of Night Session

Weekly Export Sales Numbers In

Grains Drifted Lower for Most of Night Session

Grains drifted lower for most of the night session but got a bump at the end thanks to decent export sales. In outside markets, crude oil poked its head above $54 but continues to be mostly range bound while the US dollar drifted lower to start the day.

 

USDA announced a 110,00 MT sale of corn to Japan and a 140,000 MT sale of corn to unknown destinations.

 

Yesterday after the close USDA reported its Dec crush results finding only 169.2 MB was crushed versus expectations that ranged from 170.0 to 172.5 MB going into the report. Also Yesterday, FC Stone pegged Brazil’s corn crop at 91.5, up from their previous forecast of 91.1 and soybeans at 104.1 vs 102.8 previously.

 

Overnight Algeria bought 585,000 MT of optional origin wheat. The wheat is likely to originate from the EU and US HRW. Also, Iraq is tendering for wheat but changed the provisions of the tender. Originally it was to be sourced only from the US, Canada or Australia but now all origins are allowed.

The dollar fell to its lowest since mid-November on Thursday after the Federal Reserve disappointed investors hoping for a clear sign of a March interest rate rise, while the Australian dollar rallied after data showing a record trade surplus.

 

Weekly Export Sales

                                          Actual            Expected

Wheat - Old Crop                   451              250-450

Wheat - New Crop                     0                50-150

Corn - Old Crop                   1,143           800-1,100

Corn - New Crop                        0                 0-100

Soybeans - Old Crop               624              500-800

Soybeans - New Crop                 0                50-150


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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