August 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 410
August 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 253

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 08/12/2016

National basis was mixed yet again. Soybeans saw slight basis gains while corn moved lower.

 

On average, corn lost ½ a cent per bushel. Ethanol basis followed in lockstep, losing ½ a cent as well. Even with strong exports this week, corn along the river dropped of 5 ½ cents per bushel.

 

Soybean crush facilities lead the move higher gaining 4.64 cents per bushel. Reports of increased worldwide demand for soyoil could be helping. Overall soybean basis edged up 1.5 cents this week on strong export demand. Soybean river basis broke the trend and was off almost a cent to close the week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 246

USDA News Today at 11 a.m.

Grain Markets Drift Lower in the Overnight

Grain markets drifted lower overnight as traders await news from USDA at 11 am CDT this morning about the size of the corn and soybean crop.

 

Traders are looking for big bumps in the yield and production forecasts relative to USDA’s numbers in July. For corn, traders expect a 170.6 corn yield and a production forecast of 14.76 billion bushels. This would be up from the July forecast of 168.0 and 14.54, respectively. For soybeans, July’s estimates by USDA were 46.7 for yield and 3.88 for production. Traders expect those numbers to grow to 47.5 and 3.94, respectively.

 

In overnight news, the Taiwan Flour Millers' Association purchased 85,250 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said on Friday. The wheat was bought for September/October shipment in two consignments comprising different wheat types, they said.

 

USDA reported a sale of 258,000 MT of soybeans to China.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 281
August 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 277

Weekly Export Sales Numbers out Today

Crude Oil dips below $42

Grains were higher overnight although continue to struggle with relatively tight, range-bound trade. In outside markets, crude oil dipped below $42.

 

Traders await Friday’s USDA report, expected to show large production for corn and soybeans. Average analyst estimates are at 170.6 yield for corn and 47.5. Both figures would be well above July yield projections from USDA. However, there is a growing number of analysts that are suggesting the potential for lower yields. Lanworth in a seminar yesterday put their yield forecast at 165.6 and Descartes Labs yesterday released a forecast if 169.0.

 

In export news, Saudi Arabia's main state wheat buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO), has issued an international tender to purchase 600,000 tonnes of hard wheat, it said on Thursday. The tender deadline is Aug. 12. The wheat, with 12.5 percent protein content, is sought from global suppliers for shipments in October and November 2016, it said.

 

Weekly export sales from USDA came in strong with all three crops scoring an above expectation total.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

                 OC-Act      OC-Exp       NC-Act         NC-Exp

Corn            595        200-400         1,015      800-1,100

Soybeans     308        200-400         2,792   1,900-2,500

Wheat                                             607          350-550

 

World shares hovered close to one-year highs on Thursday as oil prices dropped for a third straight day and the latest interest rate cut in a developed market - this time New Zealand - got a lukewarm response from investors.   The slip in crude markets left energy firms and London's FTSE backpedaling, though a sharp jump in consumer goods stocks lifted the rest of Europe ahead of what was expected to be a 0.2 percent higher start for Wall Street. Currency markets' broader focus remained on whether U.S. interest rates will rise this year, with traders looking ahead to speeches by Federal Reserve officials culminating in Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Aug. 26 address at the Jackson Hole symposium.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 290
August 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 266

Grains Higher in the Overnight

Crude Oil Dips Below $43

Grains were higher overnight although continue to struggle with relatively tight, range-bound trade. In outside markets, crude oil dipped below $43.

 

This morning USDA announced a 143,650 MT sale of corn to Mexico. It was the first day in 10 days when there were no soybean announcements. In other export news, the Taiwan Sugar Corp. purchased 20,000 tonnes of US-origin corn and 15,000 tonnes of US-origin soybeans in a tender which closed on Wednesday, European traders said. Australian wheat exports in August look set to hit an eight-month high as the lowest prices in a decade draw Southeast Asian millers to market, easing worries that the fourth-biggest seller would fail to meet official forecasts for the season. Exports will hit 1.4 million tonnes in August, port shipping data shows, a rise of nearly 30 percent from July and the largest business month since December 2015.

 

But, in the EU bad weather continues to plague key wheat areas there. France's exports of soft wheat outside the EU will fall to 4.8 million tonnes in 2016/17 from an estimated 12.5 million last season due to a weather-hit harvest in the bloc's biggest grain grower, agricultural group InVivo forecast on Wednesday. French soft wheat shipments within the European Union were expected to fall to 6.7 million tonnes from 7.5 million, which would give total exports of 11.5 million tonnes, down about 40 percent from last season and the lowest volume since 2001/02.

 

USDA’s crop report on Friday is expected to show higher production of corn and soybeans from USDA’s first formal farmer survey of the season on production. Traders look for a corn yield of 170.6, up from USDA’s July projection of 168, while soybean yields are expected  at 47.5, up from 46.7 in July.

 

In crude oil,, the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed weekly U.S. inventories increased by 2.09 million barrels. But, the report also found a 3.9-million-barrel drop in gasoline stockpiles and a 1.5-million-barrel draw for distillates. Analysts are expecting that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will report a 1.0-million-barrel drop in U.S. crude oil inventories when it releases its official weekly data on Wednesday, but the API data lends greater uncertainty to these forecasts.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 09, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 335
August 09, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 238

Grains Slip Overnight

Crude Oil holds steady

Grains slipped overnight with soybeans giving up 6 of yesterday's 10-cent advance. Corn and wheat also moved lower in the night session. In outside markets, crude oil held steady around the $43 mark while the US dollar was mildly lower.

 

On Monday after the close, USDA’s crop ratings showed a drop in corn condition from 76% good-to-excellent last week to 74% good-to-excellent this week. Soybean atins held steady on the week. In the Eastern Corn Belt of IN & OH, conditions continue to be sub-par. Corn in Ohio slipped on the week from 54% to 47%, soybeans 58% to 52%, Indiana corn from 77% to 73%; soy 75%  to 74%.

 

Rains were non-existent in the last day over the US Midwest except for parts of Western NE
and S MO. Weather models show some chance of rain in the ECB next week.

 

France's weather-hit soft wheat harvest will produce 28.68 million tonnes, down 30 percent from a record 2015 crop, consultancy Agritel said on Tuesday. The production estimate was based on an average yield pegged at 5.48 tonnes per hectare, down from 7.93 tonnes per hectare last year, Agritel said in a harvest report. However,Russia should see higher wheat production this year.  Russia's IKAR agriculture consultancy said on Tuesday it had upgraded its forecast for Russia's 2016 grain crop by 2 million tonnes to 116 million tonnes. Its wheat crop forecast for the year was raised by 1 million tonnes to 70 million tonnes, IKAR added.

 

Crude oil took a break overnight from recent gain $39 mark up to $43 a barrel in the past week. The market has found renewed strength thanks to OPEC  stating in a written statement on Monday the cartel will hold an informal meeting in Algeria on September 26-28 on the sidelines of the 15th International Energy Forum.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 286

Page 3 of 109 pages  < 1 2 3 4 5 >  Last ›

More Articles