Market to Continue Trading Acreage Numbers
With the prospective plantings report surprising most analysts with more corn acres and less soybean acres, the fallout to yesterday’s report will most likely to spill into today's trade session.
In the overnight session corn was mostly steady up 1/2 a cent, soybeans were up 5 3/4 cents and wheat in Chicago traded down 1 1/2 cents. Today we will most likely continue to see fallout from the Prospective Plantings report which was more bullish for soybeans and more negative for corn. Some buying interest has appeared in the overnight when a South Korean company announced they will be purchasing 140,000 metric tons of corn in an international tender and the Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture saying it will seek 120,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 200,000 metric tons of feed barley for September delivery.
Corn acreage surprised the market with 89.199 million acres compared to market expectations of around 88.7 million acres. Last year 90.6 million acres was planted for corn. The report showed soybean acres at 84.635 million acres compared to expectations of around 85.9 million acres and up .935 million acres from last year.
Quarterly grain stocks also showed more corn on hand as of March 1st compared to expectations. Corn stocks were reported at 7.745 billion bushels compared to expectations of 7.609 billion bushels. Soybean stocks were 1.334 billion bushels, 12 million bushels below expectations of 1.346 billion bushels. Wheat ending stocks were also lower than expected with 1.124 billion bushels reported as of March 1st compared to expectations of 1.140 billion bushels expected.
Showers look to provide some opportunity for moisture in the Nebraska/Kansas border and provide better chances next week across Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado. However, despite the opportunity for precipitation it is still unlikely that the moisture will provide meaningful relief to the core drought throughout the plains. More rains were seen across Europe, Ukraine and Northwest Russia yesterday with Eastern Europe and Russia expecting continued precipitation throughout the rest of the week helping to relieve the dry conditions that have been concerning wheat traders recently.
Grains Lower as Traders Prepare for Planting Intentions Report
All eyes will be on the planting intentions report this morning which will be released at 11 AM CST. Also out this morning was a sharp drop in the winter wheat conditions out of key producing states such as Kansas.
The grains are trading slightly lower today with corn down 2 cents, soybeans down 4 1/4 cents and wheat down 5 cents going into this morning’s pause in trade. Today at 11 AM CST the USDA will release its Prospective Plantings report as well as the Quarterly Grain stocks figures. Traders are looking for decreased corn acreage and increased soybean acres in this year’s report.
Here are the analyst expectations for this year’s prospective plantings report:
Last Year 90.6 83.7
Reuters Poll 88.7 85.9
Lanworth 88.2 85.5
Informa Economics 88.5 87.5
Farm Futures Magazine 88.34 87.25
Above table is in Million Acres
The expectations for the quarterly grain stocks as of March 1st are as follows. For corn the average analyst guess pegs quarterly grain stocks at 7.609 billion bushels with the highest estimate at 7.8 billion and the lowest estimate at 7.459 billion bushels. Wheat stocks are expected to be around 1.140 billion bushels with a range of analyst guesses from 1.2 billion bushels to 1.083 billion bushels. Soybean stocks are expected to be around 1.346 billion bushels with a range of guesses from 1.404 - 1.273 billion bushels.
Winter wheat crop conditions were released today, showing Kansas wheat in good to excellent condition fell to 39 percent down from 41 percent last week. South Dakota wheat rated good to excellent fell to 35 percent from 49 percent a month ago and Nebraska wheat fell to 34 percent from 62 percent last month. Of the states that released their wheat crop conditions report Colorado, Montana, Arkansas, North Carolina and Illinois all saw improved conditions. Illinois wheat conditions improved to 52 percent from 47 a week a month ago, while Colorado conditions increased to 58 percent from 47 percent a week ago.
Export inspections were released yesterday showing that 762,276 metric tons of corn was inspected this week, behind the analyst expectations of 800,000-950,000 metric tons. Wheat also fell short of analyst expectations with 322,016 metric tons inspected compared to expectations between 400,000-550,000 metric tons. Soybeans were the only grain that out performed analyst expectations with 655,720 metric tons compared to expectations of only 450,000-600,000 metric tons.
Wheat was higher in the overnight session.
Traders are awaiting the release of Tuesdays Prospective Plantings report.
Wheat was higher in the overnight session posting modest 4 cent gains while corn and beans were mostly unchanged in listless trade activity.
Wheat found support in the overnight session as concerns over dryness in the Plains continue to support prices. Weekend rains were nonexistent for the wheat belt and the outlook for the next 6 to 10-day period turned drier than was apparent in Friday’s long-term forecast. The best chances for rain are late in the week with the likelihood at only 20 percent of any moisture being realized for much of the Southern Plains. Overnight, Jordan and Israel announced tenders for wheat with Jordan looking for 45,000 MT of feed wheat and Israel searching for 100,000 MT of hard milling wheat.
In soybeans, prices were up in the night trade trying to reverse the last few sessions of lower price moves. Traders are awaiting the release of the Prospective Plantings report on Tuesday, which is expected to show higher soybean plantings by US farmers. Traders polled going into the report look for a 2 million acres increase over 2014.
For corn, analysts look for lower acres in Tuesday’s report. Pre-report trade estimates for corn acres came in at 88.7 million acres down from 90.5 the year prior. If acres fall much below that, then carryout projections for new-crop would be getting close to 1 billion bushels and the market may be inclined to get more attention on the upside. But for now, traders continue to focus on sluggish export business and ample stocks.
Wheat Yield Forecast
Winter wheat yield appears to be trending lower. Cody discusses this as well as acreage projections, grain stocks, and basis changes.
Weekly Cash Comments
Cash Commentary for week of March 27th
Corn grain basis was unchanged for the week, while soybeans posted a 2-cent advance.
In corn, basis levels were up one-cent a bushel at the Gulf export market, but river terminals were on average unchanged for the week. Barge rates dipped slightly on the week but did little to stimulate the river basis levels. For ethanol plants, basis levels were off 1-cent a bushel on average as strength in the corn futures market in the past week has helped keep pipeline supplies adequate.
For soybeans, basis levels improved for the first time in nearly 6 weeks. River terminals were up 6 cents a bushel with the Gulf export market posting a 7-cent advance. For soybean crushing plants, basis levels were up 4 cents a bushel in the past week.
Grains Mixed on Friday with Traders Eyeing Tuesday’s Reports
The grains are mixed this morning with most traders eyeing the next Tuesday's reports.
In the overnight session the grains were mixed with corn down 3/4 of a cent, soybeans down 2 3/4 of a cent and wheat up 4 cents going into this morning’s pause. Traders are eyeing two market moving reports that will be released next Tuesday the 31st which include the planting intentions report and the quarterly grain stocks report. Be prepared to monitor grain prices during the release of this report. Click here for a 14 day free trial of the Grain Hedge trading platform which delivers live quotes to your mobile phone, iPad or tablet.
Ukraine had planted 744,000 hectares of spring grain by the 24th this year which was behind last year’s pace of 1.4 million hectares. Analysts have already warned that production could fall from last year’s record due to decreased yields as a result of unfavorable weather during last fall’s planting season. UkrAgroConsult stated that 85 percent of the winter wheat is rated good to satisfactory compared to 93.4 percent last year. They also estimated that total grain production could decrease to 53 million metric tons from 59.2 million metric tons harvested in 2014.
A poll of analysts conducted by Reuters expects quarterly grain stocks to show 7.609 billion bushels of corn with a range of estimates from 7.459 to 7.8 billion bushels. Wheat stocks are expected to be showing 1.140 billion bushels with a range of analyst guesses from 1.083 to 1.2 billion bushels. Soybean stocks are expected to be around 1.346 billion bushels with a range of guesses from 1.273 to 1.404 billion bushels.
Missed Export Sales Expectations
Analyst expectations for wheat and soybeans were off by 70 and 40%. Cody looks at the current and long term effects of these miscalculated numbers.
Will this week’s soybean sales lift the market?
Soybean sales beat expectations in a big way this morning with a reportable new crop sale on top of the strong weekly sales report. Can it lift the market in the day session?
In the overnight session corn fell 3/4 of a cent, soybeans dropped 2 3/4 cents and wheat increased 1 1/2 cents. The dollar pulled back one third of a percent and crude oil is trading up a dollar this morning. This morning there was a reportable sale of 280,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 15/16 marketing year.
Weekly export sales were strong for soybeans which booked 505,808 metric tons, up 48 percent week over week. This beat analyst expectations which ranged from 100,000-300,000 metric tons. The market has been looking for soybean export sales to taper as Brazil harvest is over halfway complete. Major buyers this week included Indonesia, China, Germany and the Netherlands. Corn sales were on the low side of expectations this week booking 435,000 metric tons compared to expectations of 400,000-600,000 metric tons. This week’s sales were down 13 percent from the previous week and did little to help along the overall pace of exports this year. China was one of the corn buyers this week purchasing 60,800 metric tons, the most in quite some time. Wheat sales were reported at 102,000 metric tons this week down 74 percent from last week and a marketing year low for the grain. Expectations were for sales between 200,000-400,000 metric tons.
Yesterday, the EIA’s weekly ethanol production report showed an increase in output by 6,000 barrels per day bringing weekly production to 953,000 barrels per day. This is the 3rd straight week of ethanol production increases despite the lagging energy sector. Seasonally, it is normal to see an increase in ethanol production from March through June. Ethanol ending stocks were also increased this week by 497,000 barrels per day to 21.32 million barrels.
Brazil’s Agroconsult increased their soybean crop estimate to 95.8 million metric tons from 94.7 million in their previous forecast. Brazil soybean harvest is 61 percent complete which is about 4 percent behind last year. Dry conditions recently has helped move along harvest, but light precipitation over the next few days may slow the pace temporarily. Precipitation should clear by early next week to provide more opportunity for harvest.
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