June 16, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 599
June 16, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 388

Soybeans Continue Their Slump

Weather forecasts turn favorable for grains this week

Soybeans slumped for a 4th day in a row while corn and wheat were holding on to modest gains going into the morning session. Crude oil and equity futures were also lower as the US dollar rose half a percent in the night session.

 

Weather forecasts have been turning more favorable for grains this week as the heat once predicted for the Midwest has now pushed to the Western United States and left the Cornbelt showing mostly normal temperatures through June 25. Likewise, precipitation forecasts out for that same time period put the likelihood of precipitation in the Western Cornbelt into the Northern tier states of IL/IN/OH at above normal to the end of next week.

 

Yesterday, NOPA’s monthly crush figure for May came in well above expectations with the May soybean crush at 153.8 MB versus trade estimates of only 149.7 MB. That is the largest crush number for May in history. Likewise, EIA’s weekly ethanol production was also a record coming in at 1.01 million barrels per day.

 

Export activity was brisk overnight. Saudi Arabia was in the market for 300,000 MT of hard wheat, while India was tendering for 50,000 MT of corn. Two South Korea feed millers bought corn overnight. One bought 130,0000 MT of optional origin corn while another bought 55,000 MT of US origin corn.

 

Crude oil continues to slump, off $5 a barrel from its recent highs last week. Uncertainty over the Brexit vote on June 23 and the seemingly likely exit of Britain from the Eurozone has kept markets on edge.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

                    Act-OC     Exp-OC       Act-NC     Exp-NC

Corn                 909     900-1,200       178      200-400

Soybeans          816      400-600         768      600-800

Wheat                                              762      250-450


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 15, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 366
June 15, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 404

Grain Futures Found Modest Support Overnight

Crude Oil continues it's Slump

Grain futures found modest support overnight, while in outside markets crude oil continued to slump, driven by an unexpected build in US inventories.

 

Weather forecasts show above normal temperatures for much of the Corn Belt in the 8-14 day outlook into the end of June. Rain expectations are for below normal precipitation in the Southern reaches of the growing region, but are near normal for a wide swath of the Midwest, and the Eastern Cornbelt shows above average chances of precipitation.

 

U.S. soybean processors likely boosted crush levels to the highest ever for the month of May due to stepped-up demand for U.S. soymeal stemming from problems with the South American crop, analysts said. Analysts were expecting the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report that its members crushed 149.670 million bushels of soybeans in May, based on the average of estimates given by seven analysts.

 

On Tuesday, private forecaster API pegged US crude inventories to be up 1.5 million barrels from last week as traders had expected a 1.4 million barrel drop. Official EIA projections are due out at 9:30 am CDT this morning, and are expected to show a 2.2 million barrel drop.
 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 14, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 413
June 14, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 345

Crop Conditions Continue to Improve

Crude Oil Sinks for 4th Consecutive Day

Grain prices were lower overnight as improving crop conditions pressured prices for a 2nd day. In outside markets, crude oil sank for a 4th straight day after hitting a 7-month high last week.

 

USDA’s crop condition report released Monday after the close showed an improvement in soybeans as the crop went from 72% to 74% good to excellent on the week. Corn condition was unchanged at 75%. Winter wheat harvest reached 11% complete, and pressure on cash basis was starting to hit in OK & TX.

 

In other news, on Monday private analyst Informa released US acreage projections ahead of the USDA’s June 30th report. Informa expects a 1-million acre increase in soybean acres and a similar decrease in corn acres as compared to the March 31 estimate by USDA.  

 

U.S. stock markets looked set to extend the prior session’s losses on Tuesday, tracking global equity markets lower amid growing anxiety the U.K. will vote to leave the European Union later this month. Recent polls suggested support for the U.K. campaign to leave the European Union is picking up. Britain's "Out" campaign widened its lead over the "In" camp ahead of the country's June 23 referendum. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day meeting starting on Tuesday. While the U.S. central bank is not expected to take action on interest rates, it could provide guidance on its pace of tightening over the next several months.
 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 13, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 337

Corn and Soybeans Gain in the Overnight

Gold hits its Highest Gain since May on Monday

U.S. corn gained 2.5 percent on overnight and soybeans gained almost 1 percent, with prices supported by concerns over a severe drought in Brazil and unseasonal rains in Argentina curbing global supplies. Wheat rose, although prices were capped by expectations of a bumper harvest of the U.S. winter crop.

 

Brazil’s economist raised their GDP outlook for next year to 1 percent from 0.85 percent. Just a month ago the projected outlook was 0.5 percent.

 

The USDA has cut its estimates for ending stocks as there is a strong demand for U.S. Products.

 

Gold hits its highest gain since May on Monday, being driven higher by a retreat in the dollar.

 

Weather in the midwest continues to look hot with a chance of rain to begin the week. NOAA has issued warnings of potential flash flooding and thunderstorms in the plains region for Monday. Over the weekend Brazil experienced frosts near the southern 10% of the corn crop resulting in isolated damage.

 

Crude oil prices are expected to continue lower, weighed down by gloomy economic prospects in Europe and Asia and the strengthening U.S. dollar. API estimates ethanol stocks to be lower again this week by as much as 3.56M.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID 0307930)


 

June 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 337

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 06/10/2016

Corn basis was off 1-cent on the week while US soy basis was down 3-cents for the week.

 

Corn basis took a modest 1-cent decline. Ethanol was down nearly 2-cents on the week. Corn river basis was up nearly a cent as export volumes continue to be seasonally robust for this time of year.


In soybeans, the strength in the futures market this week caused US soybean basis levels to slip by 3 cent. River basis was down five and a quarter. Soy plants were also down almost 5 cents on the week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID 0307930)

June 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 427

USDA Crop Report Releases Today

Report is expected to show higher wheat carryout

Grains were mixed overnight as traders await fresh input from USDA’s crop report at 11 am CDT today.

 

Kevin will be hosting a Live Stream Commentary this morning--(Live Stream starts at 10:30 am CDT, Crop Report releases at 11:00 a.m. CDT)

Click Here to Register

 

Overall, the USDA report is expected to show higher wheat carryout on the heels of better US production and weaker exports, while corn and soybeans are expected to see a drop in carryout thanks to surging US exports.

 

It also seems likely that USDA will need to lower their Brazil forecasts for corn and soybeans after the government there cut their production forecasts. Brazil’s soy crop is pegged at 95.6 MMT v 99.0 USDA while the corn crop is at 76.2 v 81.0 USDA.

 

India may import 5 million tonnes of wheat in 2016/17 as its local production is hit by back-to-back years of drought amid rising demand, a leading consumer said on Friday.
The country is expected to produce 85 million tonnes of the grain in 2016, a decline of about 2.3 percent from last year, said S. Sivakumar, group head of agri and IT businesses at ITC Ltd.
 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 09, 2016 | Kevin McNew | Views: 402

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