November 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 125

Soybean Harvest at 93% Complete

Tomorrow's Crop Report Expected to Show a Bump in Soybean Yields

Election Tuesday saw beans continue to the upside while corn and wheat had marginal gains. In outside markets, equity futures were slightly lower following yesterday’s sharp advances while crude and the USD had a slight dip in early trade.


USDA announced a 116,100 MT of soybean meal to the Dominican Republic.


Yesterday after the close, USDA reported the US soybean harvest at 93% complete versus 91% normal for this time of year and corn at 86% versus 85% normal. Winter wheat ratings held steady at the national level but saw rather sharp drops in CO & NE as drought starts to be an issue heading into dormancy.


Ukrainian 2016/17 grain exports could be 7 MMT lower than originally expected due to logistical difficulties and some companies have already redirected shipments from Ukraine to other countries, traders said on Tuesday. Ukraine had planned to ship abroad around 41 MMT this season vs 39 last year. Volodymyr Klymenko, the head of Ukrainian grain traders union UZA said a lack of railway grain wagons and a tightening of the rules on grain transportation by trucks were the main obstacles to exports.


Egypt’s GASC was in the market for wheat and got 7 offers. The lowest at $186.98 came from a Russian firm but a US offer of SRW for $187 was not far off the mark.


The crop report tomorrow is expected to show a bump in soybean yields and carryout while corn numbers are on average expected to be mostly unchanged.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 141
November 07, 2016 | Kevin McNew | Views: 131

Fresh Export Deals this Morning

Grains were mixed overnight as soybeans posted solid gains to start the week while corn and soybeans drifted lower. Outside markets reacted sharply to the weekend announcement that the FBI would not change its view on Clinton’s emails. This sent equity markets sharply higher and gave the US Dollar and crude oil a big bounce.


USDA announced a 172,000 MT sale of corn, a 132,000 MT of soybeans and a 135,000 MT of soymeal this morning.


Palm oil traded higher as did other Asian veg oil markets, helping lift soybean futures. Rains are expected in the coming days in Argentina to add to the flooding woes for farmers there. The north-central La Pampa and far
southern Cordoba had seen a record 20 inches of rain during the month of October and 16 inches of that occurred in a 12-day period. Some are suggesting the Argentine wheat crop could be in the low 13 MMT range vs USDA at 14.4.  But, in Brazil weather continues to be mostly favorable with 53% of the soy crop planted versus a 5-year average of 49%


Grain markets will look to USDA on Wednesday for their latest crop estimates,. Traders expect soybean yields to be bumped by 0.6 bushels per acre to 52.0 but also look for higher exports. Overall the trade is expecting carryout to go from 400 to 420 MB. For corn, analysts are mixed on yield, with the average estimate showing a 0.2 bushels per acre decline to 173.2


Stocks and the dollar posted their biggest gains in weeks on Monday after the FBI said it stood by a recommendation that no criminal charges were warranted against Hillary Clinton. The news lifted a cloud over the Democrat's presidential campaign two days before the U.S. election and put Wall Street firmly on track to snap a nine-day losing streak

November 04, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 107
November 04, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 231

Robust Export Pace Continues

Grains drifted lower overnight in lackluster trade while in outside markets crude oil hit its lowest mark since Sept 20. Equities and the US Dollar posted modest gains.

Expectations continue to mount for a growing soybean production figure in USDA’s November crop report next Wednesday. Yesterday, Informa boosted their soybean production forecast to 52.4 bushels per acre versus USDA in October of 51.4 and Informa’s October forecast of 51.6. However,export pace continues to be robust with 4 of the past 5 weekly sales showing better than 2 MMT of soybean sales. Historically, USDA tends to underestimate exports in the November report versus a report 6 months later in the season in May. In the past 10 years, USDA has been lower in their November forecast in 7 of those years versus the May forecast, and on average they’ve missed the mark by 65 MB.





Overnight Japan bought 153,156 MT of food wheat in a usual tender. Of the total 58,800 MT is from the US while the rest goes to Canada and Australia.

Equity markets continue to be defensive ahead of the US election on Tuesday. With the polls tightening investors remain cautious about the outcome and potential implications of each candidate. This morning US jobless numbers were a bit disappointing as new jobs grew 161,000 but were below expectations of 175,000 and last month’s reading of 191,000.

November 03, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 231
October 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 265

Soybeans Continue Their Climb Reaching 2-Month Highs

Oil Prices Fell on Wednesday

Soybeans continued to climb reaching fresh 2-month highs and above its 10-day moving average while corn and wheat also added to yesterday’s gains.


Soymeal was sharply higher yesterday, helping fuel the bean rally while domestic prices for soybeans are up over 50-cents a bushel in the past few days, doubling up the US gains. Traders are looking for big US exports to China to continue as crush margins and import margins for beans the best they’ve been in a year. Also with the harvest now likely past 80% harvested it seems bear positions may be leaving the building.


South Korea's largest foodmaker, NOFI, purchased about 273,000 MT of corn in a tender which closed on Wednesday. The corn was bought in four consignments which can be sourced from the United States, South America or worldwide origins. Taiwan's maize industry procurement association, MFIG, purchased 65,000 tonnes of corn to be sourced optionally from the United States or Brazil in an international tender which closed on Thursday.

Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday on growing doubts OPEC will cut production, giving back the gains after the EIA inventory data. US crude
stockpiles fell 553,000 barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, a result contrary to the 1.7 million-barrel build that analysts polled by Reuters had forecast.


Weekly export sales

                                     Actual     Expected

Corn                                  799      900-1,200

Soybeans                        2,045   1,500-2,500

Wheat                               646        350-550


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 637
October 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 239

Soybeans Continue to Climb Higher

US Dollar and Equity Futures Lower

Soybeans continued to ratchet higher while corn and wheat had some modest gains in sympathy. In outside markets, the US dollar and equity futures were lower and crude was sharply off.


Palm oil continued to rally overnight hitting a two-month high helping push soybeans higher and approaching the $10-mark. Egypt overnight announced they bought 420,000 MT of wheat from Russia and Romania. Although there was a US offer thrown into the pool, but none was accepted.


A South Korean feed maker is said to be shopping for 276,000 MT of corn and 69,000 MT of wheat for early 2017 delivery.


In South American weather, Brazil looks good for ample moisture over the next several weeks. Argentina will be dry thru the weekend but rains are expected to bring beneficial moisture early next week.

Crude oil took a hit as API stocks data after Tuesday’s close showed a 5 million barrel build in oil inventories and a nearly 2 million barrel build. For today’s official EIA data, the trade is only looking for a 750,000 barrel build in oil and a 1.25 million barrel decline in gas inventories.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 252

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