November 03, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 1006

Soybean Market Turns Higher

Corn and Soybeans Down in the Overnight Market

In the overnight session the grains are trading lower with December corn down ¼ a cent, January soybeans down 2 ¼ cents and wheat down 1 ¾ cents. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal in the 6-10 day outlook for the majority of the grain belt. The precipitation outlook should turn drier than normal over the next 6-10 days.

 

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EXPORTERS SELL 300,000 METRIC TONS OF HARD RED WINTER WHEAT FOR DELIVERY TO IRAQ DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

EXPORTERS SELL 102,400 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO MEXICO DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

EXPORTERS SELL 135,000 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO SOUTH KOREA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

EXPORTERS SELL 251,000 METRIC TONS OF GRAIN SORGHUM FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

On Wednesday and Thursday the soybean market turned higher after finding trendline support early this week. The soybean uptrend started in late August when the Oilseed printed lows and has provided strong support on August 31st, September 12th, early October and again this week. Soybean export sales beat expectations on Thursday which also helped to lift prices.  

  

 

Yesterday, Informa announced their latest production estimates, seeing 2017 corn production at 14.410 billion bushels with a yield of 173.4 bushels per acre. Informa’s Soybean estimate were set at 4.447 billion bushels with a yield at 49.7 bushels per acres. This compares to the latest FCStone yield of 173.7 bushels per acre for corn and 49.9 bushels per acre for soybeans. Both private estimates were greater than the latest October USDA estimates which have Corn production pegged at 14.280 billion bushels with yield of 171.8 bushels per acre and USDA soybean production estimates at 4.431 billion bushels with a yield of 49.5 bushels per acre. On November 9th the USDA will release their latest supply and demand estimates.

 

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November 02, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 1040

US Winter Wheat Planting Nearing Completion

Grains Moved Higher in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains moved higher with December corn up 1 ½ cents, January soybeans up 3 ¼ cents and December Chicago wheat up 3 ¾ cents this morning. Wheat’s move higher this morning appears to be more short covering action after the grain broke through August lows early on this week. The previous low, which was once support will now likely turn to overhead resistance around 4.23 on the December SRW chart.  


 

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Weekly ethanol production increased again this week to 1.056 million barrels per day up from 1.039 million bpd. This was a strong weekly production was 3.3 percent above last year’s production and is the 4th highest ethanol producing week on record. Ethanol stocks increased to 21.474 million barrels from 21.034 million barrels last week. Year-over-year stocks continue to rise as ending stocks remain steady during a period when the seasonal tendency is to reduce ethanol stocks. In the latest Grain crushings report released yesterday afternoon, the USDA showed that 447.6 million bushels of corn was used for ethanol production in the month of September, up from 435.2 million bushels last year. The USDA also stated that 1.847 million metric tons of DDGs were produced in September which was down 1.965 million from last year.

 

Exporters sell 1,356,360 MT of Corn for delivery to Mexico, of which 845,820 MT is for 2017/2018 delivery and 510,540 MT is for 2018/2019 delivery-USDA

 

The Oilseed Crush report, which was released yesterday at 2 PM CST showed that 145.35 million bushels were crushed in the month of September which was inline with analyst expectations of 145.4 million bushels. The USDA reported that soy oil ending stocks were 1.711 billion pounds, which was above expectations of 1.664 billion pounds.

Rains today will continue to slow planting progress in Argentina. With limited precipitation in the forecast early next week there should be an opportunity for fieldwork before rain returns to the forecast by late next week.

 

Export sales beat expectations for Soybeans with strong sales to China totaling to 1,531,400 metric tons this week. Corn on the other hand recorded sales on the low end of expectations, down 37 percent from the previous week and down 33 percent from the four week average. Wheat sales were mostly steady, down only 4 percent from last week and in the middle of trade expectations.

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

347

250-450

Corn-OC

811

800-1,100

Corn-NC

90

0-100

Soybeans-OC

1,967

1,450-1,850

Soybeans-NC

15

0-50

 


 

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November 01, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 919

Rains in the Midwest Slow Corn/Soy Harvest in Next Two Weeks

Corn and Soybeans Trade Higher in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session corn and soybeans traded higher with December corn up 1 cent and January soybeans up ¾ cents. Wheat struggled yesterday to gain any traction as the grain traded through support set on August 29th at 4.22 ½. Chicago wheat decisively broke and closed below support level and looks as if it will continue the downward push today. Ample stocks and record wheat export from Russia continues to pressure the market.

 

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Today the USDA will release the Grain Crushings and Oilseed Crushings report at 2 PM CST. According to a Reuters poll, analysts are expecting for the Oilseed report to show soybeans crushed in the month of September around 145.4 million bushels down from the 151.6 million bushels in August. The range of estimates stretched from 144.2 million to 147 million bushels. Soy oil stocks are estimated at 1.664 billion pounds down from 1.81 billion pounds in the end of August.

The NOPA crush report which is released early on in the month showed disappointing crush numbers for the month of September. NOPA released that its members crushed 136.414 million bushels which missed expectations by nearly two million bushels.

 

This morning it was announced that China will increase state purchases of grains. The move is a result of heavy rains and high humidity impacting the rice, wheat and corn quality.  


 

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October 31, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 663

Harvest Pace In Line with Market Expectations

Grains Mixed in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with November soybeans up 2 ½ cents. December corn is trading down ½ a cent and December Chicago wheat was down ½  of a cent. November soybeans started the day out strong yesterday, but early gains evaporated by the close. Uptrend support is still intact for November Soybeans at $9.70, but yesterday’s trade action was not a ringing endorsement for the resumption of soybeans uptrend.

 

Exporters sell 100,000 metric tons of Hard Red Winter Wheat for delivery to Iraq during the 2017/2018 marketing year. USDA

 

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The crop progress report showed that harvest pace advanced in line with market expectations. U.S. corn harvest advanced to 54 percent complete, up from 38 percent complete a week ago. Soybean harvest is now 83 percent complete, up from 70 percent last week. Soybean harvest is right on pace with the average of the last five years, but corn harvest is behind the average pace of 72 percent complete. Next week’s harvest pace should progress rapidly across the western part of the Midwest but could experience some delays with more precipitation expected across the eastern grain belt.

 

Winter wheat planting progress advanced to 84 percent complete, up from 75 percent the previous week. Traders are concerned that the difficult planting weather combined with the low wheat prices is encouraging farmers to switch acres out of wheat. Currently, December Chicago wheat is trading lower and looks like it will test a support level set on August 29th at 4.22 ½.

 

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October 30, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 418

Reported This Morning; Newly Harvested Soybeans Have Less Protein

Corn and Soybeans Up This Morning

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with soybeans trading higher. December corn was up ¼ of a cent, November Soybeans were up 4 ¾ cents and December Chicago wheat was down ¾ of a cent. Soybeans finished last week pulling all the way back to the uptrend support around $9.70 before closing Friday in the green. A strong close today would signal the possible resumption of the uptrend that started after Soybeans put in a low on August 16th.

 

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Rains were scattered across all of the corn and soybean growing regions of Brazil and the southern half of Argentina this weekend. The Brazilian rains are beneficial for the crop and are helping to keep planting pace at average levels. On Thursday, Brazil announced that soybeans are 30 percent planted which on pace with the 5 year average, but slightly behind last year. The Argentina rains, which are delaying soybean planting are expected to return on Thursday followed by five days of clear weather.  

 

The Commitments of Traders report showed that the speculators net short position for corn increased again this week by only 10,659 contracts to -213,806. Chicago Wheat also saw an increase in the speculators net short position by 1,645 to -101,110. This week soybean speculators reduced their net long positions by 28,390 to 2,065.

Reuters reported over the weekend that newly harvested soybean have had less protein than in years past which has forced processors like Bunge to cut the amount of nutrients they can guarantee in soymeal.

 

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October 27, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 372

Corn and Soybean Flash Sales Noted This Morning

Soybeans and Wheat Up in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains traded lower with December corn down 1 ¼ cents, November Soybeans up 1 and December Chicago wheat down 1 ½ cents. Corn has been trading in a sideways pattern since the end of August and is currently trading in the middle of the range. November Soybeans will likely test its trendline support today or early next week which will be a key event to observe.  


EXPORTERS SELL 238,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR

EXPORTERS SELL 132,000 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO SPAIN DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR

 

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The weather forecast in Argentina continues to bring moisture which has slowed planting this season. Although Eastern Argentina will see a brief pause in the precipitation today, additional rain is expected late this weekend with even more moisture is in the forecast for next Wednesday through Friday. Soybean planting started over two weeks ago and was reported at 1.8 percent complete in the latest agricultural report.

China has announced that it has cut its minimum purchase price for wheat to $346 per metric ton, which is down 2.5 percent. The move was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission and was intended to help lower the country's massive wheat stockpiles. The cut was widely anticipated and is not expected to impact winter wheat planting decisions for the next season.  

 

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October 26, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 354

Impressive Weekly Export Sales Numbers for Soybeans

Grains Were Mixed in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with December corn up ½ a cent, November soybeans up 3 cents and December Chicago wheat up ¾ cent. The strong export sales for soybeans this week should help lift prices in the early trade this morning.

 

U.S. Ethanol production rose for a second week in a row to 1.039 million barrels per day. Ethanol production rose 5 million gallons a week and was the strongest production numbers in six weeks. Despite the sharp rise in production we did see ethanol stocks slip by .446 million barrels last week to 21.034 million barrels. Ethanol stocks typically experience a seasonal drawdown starting in the beginning of September, but this year they have held steady. Ethanol stocks are 5.6% above last year's levels and are a record for this time of the year.  

 

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This morning the International Grains Council announced that it has raised its forecast for the World Wheat crop in 2017-18 to 748.5 million metric tons, up from 747.6 million metric tons. The group's corn production estimate increased by 5.2 million metric tons to 1.034 billion metric tons.

 

 

Export sales were strong for both corn and soybeans last week. Soybean sales were up 67 percent from the previous week and significantly outpaced expectations with an increase in sales to China. Corn sales were on the high side of expectations, but were up by a marginal three percent from last week. Wheat sales softened from last week to 360,600 metric tons, down 41 percent from last week and on the lower end of expectations.   


 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

360

300-500

Corn

1,288

800-1,200

Soybeans

2,129

1,200-1,600


 

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October 25, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 386

Grains Push Higher in the Overnight with Soybeans Leading the Push

In the overnight session the grains traded higher with soybeans leading the way. December Corn was up ¾ of a cent, November soybeans were up 6 ¾ cents and December Chicago wheat was up 1 cent. March soybeans are now trading back above $10 dollars. There is some light snow forecast in Minnesota by Thursday as cooler than normal temperatures become widespread throughout the Midwest by this weekend. The 11-15 day forecast expects heavier snow, but confidence on that event is still quite low.  

 

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Soybeans this morning has continued its push higher since the low established on August 16th this year. Since that time we have seen a relatively orderly uptrend with trend line support dates of August 30th, September 12th and October 12th. This week, trade action approached trendline support but has not tested it.

 

Rains in southern Brazil corn and soybean producing region are helping to improve the moisture as farmers continue planting. The rains are expected to spread across the major growing regions over the next two weeks, which is favorable for the Brazilian corn and soybean crop. Argentina which has been getting excessive moisture is expected to see a break in precipitation late next week but the 11-15 day forecast shows a return of rain again.

This morning Taiwan’s purchasing group MFIG issued an international tender to buy 40,000 to 65,000 metric tons of corn that can be sourced from the United States, South Africa or South America.

 

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October 24, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 402

Crop Progress Report Shows Soybeans are 70% Harvested

Grains Pull Back Slightly in Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains pulled back slightly after recording nice gains in yesterday’s session. December Corn is trading down 1 cent, November soybeans is down 2 ¾ cents and December Chicago wheat is down 2 ¼ cents this morning.

 

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The crop progress report released yesterday after the market closed showed that soybeans were 70 percent harvested above analyst expectations which were expecting 64 percent complete. Soybean harvest is now only 3 percentage points away from the five year average harvest pace for this time of year. Corn harvest was reported at 38 percent complete, well below the five year average of 59 percent and behind expectations which was expecting the report to show 44 percent of corn harvested.

 

Winter wheat planted increased to 75 percent complete, up from 60 percent a week ago. This was slightly above analyst expectations which were looking for winter wheat to be 73 percent planted.

On Monday the U.S. Commerce Department set their preliminary anti-dumping duties in a range from 54.36 to 70.05 percent on soy-based biodiesel from Argentina. Indonesia’s palm oil biodiesel duties were set to 50.71 percent. Indonesia plans on contesting the anti-dumping duty said a senior trade ministry official in Jakarta. He went on to say “We will fight to counter the U.S. dumping allegation.”  


 

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October 23, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 286

Grains Were Mixed in the Overnight Session

Cattle on Feed Report Released on Friday was Mostly Bearish

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with December corn up ¼ cent, November soybeans down ¾ of a cent and December Chicago wheat unchanged. Rains over the weekend slowed harvest throughout the Central Midwest with precipitation in Eastern Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. Precipitation is expected to continue east into eastern Illinois and Indiana. The forecast over the next five days is for precipitation to continue delaying field work over the eastern grain belt.

 

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The market is waiting for the USDA to release its latest crop progress report after the market closes Monday afternoon. Analysts are expecting soybean harvest to be around 70 percent complete and corn harvest to move to 42-43 percent complete. Corn and Soybean basis was unchanged on the week, but the delays in harvest have some feedlots and ethanol facilities increasing their basis in Nebraska and South Dakota by as much as 10 cents.

The Cattle on Feed report that was released on Friday bearish for the most part. All cattle on feed as of October 1st was 105 percent of last year which was above the 104.6 percent that the trade was expecting. Cattle placed on feed in September was 113 percent, compared to the 108 percent expected by the market. Marketings continue to be strong however, with 103 percent marketed, beating the average analyst guess of 102.6 percent.

In the latest Commitments of Traders report the total net short positions held by managed money increased by 7,747 positions from last week. The net position held by managed money for soybeans increased its length by 37,176 last week to 68,168.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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