July 23, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 152

Can Export Sales Lift Wheat?

Wheat export sales were stronger than expected this morning giving wheat a reason to end its 8 day price decline.

In the overnight session the grains moved slightly higher with wheat showing the largest rebound, up 5 ¾ cents. Corn is trading unchanged this morning and soybeans is up ¾ of a cent. The U.S. dollar is moving nearly 1/3 of a percent lower and crude oil is up 12 cents per barrel.

 

Export sales were mostly on the low side of analyst expectations except for wheat which booked 502,800 metric tons this week. Wheat sales were up 73 percent on the week and beat analyst expectations which ranged from 200,000 to 400,000 metric tons. Old crop corn sales recorded 223,400 metric tons which was down 33 percent from the previous week missing analyst expectations which ranged from 250,000 to 450,000 metric tons. Old crop soybeans recorded positive sales this week, adding 80,800 metric tons to the books. Analyst were expecting between 0-150,000 metric tons booked this week.

 

New crop corn and soybean sales were on the low side of analyst expectations with corn only booking 311,400 metric tons and soybeans booking 241,800 metric tons. As of last week new crop corn and soybeans had booked just over half the sales we typically see during this time of the year. The strong dollar and sharp rally in the grains recently has slowed new crop export demand considerably.

 

Ethanol production fell 11,000 barrels per day this week to 973,000 BPD. Despite the weekly decline ethanol production continues to 4.6 percent ahead of last year’s pace. This week’s ethanol production was 14,000 barrels per day ahead of last year during the same week, and 101,000 barrels per day ahead of the four year average. Ethanol stocks also declined this week, falling 181,000 barrels to 19.56 million barrels.  

July 22, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 174

Lagging New Crop Sales

Tune in as Cody breaks down the charts for corn, soybeans, and wheat. He also looks to see how lagging new crop sales are effecting the grains.

July 22, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 143

Will Weather Turn Positive for Crops?

Will the weather over the next 10 days help overall crop development?

In the overnight session the grains traded lower again with corn down 5 ¼ cents, soybeans down 3 cents and wheat down 8 cents. The U.S. dollar is up 1/5th of a percent and crude oil 66 cents lower. Corn is trading just above the 50 percent retracement level at $4.09 from the rally that started June 16th and recently peaked at 4.54 ¼ cents on July 14th. November soybeans is trading around the $10 level with a mild support level around $9.92.

 

The grains are moving lower this morning with the forecast showing a positive outlook for crop development over the next 10 days. The eastern Midwest which has been getting hit with excessive moisture in the early part of the growing season is expected to receive only limited showers, while the outlook in Iowa and Nebraska is for the weather to turn wetter for the next 10 days. Heat events are expected to be limited with only a few mild events expected over the weekend and early next week. Canada is also expected to receive beneficial rains for their wheat and canola crop.

 

This morning there was some export activity with NASS reporting 120,000 metric tons of U.S soybeans to be sold to china for new crop delivery. A tender was also issued this morning by South Korea’s corn processing industry association for 55,000 metric tons of corn from either the U.S, Brazil or Argentina. The corn is to be delivered in November and the tender closes on Wednesday. 

July 21, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 180
July 21, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 147

Crop Conditions Hold Steady

With the crop progress report out of the way, can grain prices hold their ground?

In the overnight session the grains traded mixed with corn down 2 cents, soybeans up 1 ¾ cents and wheat down 4 ¼ cents. The U.S. Dollar is lower by 1/5th of a percent and crude oil is up 14 cents this morning. This morning the USDA reported 110,000 metric ton sale of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations.  

 

The crop conditions report was released after the market closed on Monday and showed that corn and soybeans rated good-to-excellent was left unchanged at 69 percent and 62 percent respectively. Corn did show an increase in the excellent column by 2 percent which was offset by a 2 percent decline in the good column.  Analysts were expecting to see corn ratings unchanged and soybeans conditions to decline from last week. In the state crop progress reports both Indiana and Ohio described some of the recently harvested wheat crop as being of very low quality with low test weights, high vomitoxin levels and high moisture content.

 

Export inspections showed that corn, soybeans and wheat all beat analyst expectations. In the report released on Monday corn showed 1,161,000 metric tons were inspected for export, above expectations which ranged from only 600,000-900,000 metric tons. Soybeans reported 306,000 metric tons compared to expectations of 110,000-215,000 metric tons and wheat reported 489,000 metric tons inspected for export. All three crops showed significant improvement over last week’s inspection numbers.

 

Egypt’s GASC was offered wheat from Russia, France, Ukraine and Romania in a tender for 55,000-60,000 metric tons of wheat that was issued yesterday. No wheat was offered from the U.S.  and Russian wheat was the most competitive at $193.75 a metric ton.  

July 20, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 185
July 20, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 152

Grains Slide Lower In The Overnight

The grains slipped lower in the overnight trade session with crop conditions expected to be unchanged for corn and weather clearing for the eastern grain belt over the next 10 days.

In the overnight session the grains traded lower with corn down 8 ¾ cents, soybeans down 12 ¾ cents and wheat in Chicago down 10 ¼ cents. The U.S. dollar is trading a fraction of a percent higher and crude oil is unchanged on the day. This morning the Taiwan Flour miller’s Association issued a tender for 104,350 metric tons of wheat to be purchased from the United States.

Crop conditions will be released out at 3 PM CST today, with expectations of corn conditions to be unchanged at 69 percent rated good to excellent and soybean conditions to decline slightly from 62 percent rated good to excellent last week.  Weather looks to clear up for the eastern grain belt for the next 10 days providing some relief from saturated fields which have hindered yield prospects. Temperatures have also moderated throughout the Midwest with highs in the 80’s throughout most of the Midwest today. Another heat event is expected later this week which is expected to be mainly located in Kansas and into the Delta.

New crop corn sales have been behind the average pace for this time of the year. As of last week cumulative outstanding export sales for soybeans delivered in 15/16 totaled to 6,851,276 metric tons, compared to a three year average of 12,034,663 metric tons. New crop corn sales are also behind the average pace with only 3,543,127 metric tons of new crop corn sold, which is only 55 percent of the four year average. The strong dollar and sharp rally in futures prices has many new crop grain buyers sitting on the side line for the time being.

Strategy Grains cut their EU forecast last Thursday after heat and dry weather damaged crop production prospects. Strategy Grains lowered their corn forecast to 66.7 million metric tons down .7 MMT from the June forecast. 

July 17, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 246
July 16, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 199

Mixed Export Sales

Cody reviews the mixed export sales report and discusses the weather outlook.

July 16, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 226

Grains Pop Thursday Morning

The grains popped in the overnight session Thursday morning.

In the overnight session the grains are trading higher with December corn up 6 3/4 cents, November soybeans up 8 3/4 cents and wheat in Chicago up 4 cents. The U.S dollar is trading up nearly ½ a percent and crude oil is up 26 cents this morning.

 

Old crop export sales showed weekly declines for both corn and wheat.  In the weekly sales report wheat booked 291,500 metric tons which was a 16% decline from the previous week. Corn sales were a marketing year low, declining 38 percent from the previous week with 331,100 metric tons sold. Soybeans showed positive sales with 45,500 metric tons booked which is expected considering the time of year.  New crop sales were strong for soybeans booking 507,000 metric tons for 15/16 delivery. New crop corn sales were also strong with 325,100 metric tons sold, up from only 149,010 metric tons sold last week.

 

Yesterday’s ethanol production numbers from the EIA showed production has fallen 3,000 barrels per day week over week to a total of 984,000 barrels per day. Although this was a slight decline from last week it was better than expected and is 41 million barrels per day ahead the same week last year and 106 million barrels per day ahead of the moving average. Ethanol stocks also fell 101,000 barrels to 19.74 million barrels this week.

 

June NOPA crush numbers were higher than expected with 142.473 million bushels crushed in the month of June. This beat the average guess of 141.478 million bushels and is up substantially from last year’s June crush number of 123.117 mbu. Soyoil stocks were reported at 1.574 billion pounds. 

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