August 24, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 187

Macro Selling Pressures Corn Lower

The grains couldn't escape the selling that has left the Shanghai index down 8.49 percent at the close.

In the overnight session, the grains are trading sharply lower with corn down 10 cents, soybeans down 31 1/4 cents and wheat down 8 1/2 cents today. The U.S. dollar index is trading down 1.26 percent and crude oil is trading down $1.57 at $38.875 per barrel. This morning a global sell-off is pressuring the grains lower with the Shanghai index closing down 8.49 percent, Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 4.61 percent, the German DAX down 3.73 percent. Corn, Soybeans and Wheat are not immune to this sort of macro selling and have moved sharply lower this morning. This morning a reportable export sale of 120,000 metric tons of new crop soybeans did little to slow the slide in prices.

 

On Friday, Pro Farmer announced its national corn and soybean forecasts after touring the U.S. from Ohio to South Dakota last week. Pro Farmer sees 2015 corn yield at 164.3 bushels per acre compared to the current USDA’s August forecast of 168.8 bushels per acre. Pro Farmer’s soybean forecast was lower than the USDA by .4 bushels per acre at 46.5 bushels per acre. Pro Farmer pegged 2015 corn production 363 bushels below the current USDA projection at 13.323 billion bushels. Soybean production is estimated at 3.887 billion bushels.

 

The EU crop monitor cut its forecast for corn yield to 6.4 tons per hectare, down 4.6 percent from last month’s forecast. The EU crop monitor kept its yield forecast for soft wheat mostly unchanged at 5.81 tons per hectare. 

August 21, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 199
August 21, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 198

Weekly Cash Comments

Cash Commentary for week ending 21 August 2015

Divergence was the game this week, as corn and soybean prices continued to move in opposing directions. Corn managed a 7 cent advance in futures while cash basis levels were firmer by 1 cent a bushel, but beans couldn’t shake their negative fundamentals giving up 9 cents on the board and 4 cents on spot basis.

 

In corn, basis levels were bolstered by modest gains in ethanol plants and a more robust move by river terminals. Ethanol plants showed the most strength in the Western Cornbelt with a handful of plants posting gains of 5 to 10 cents a bushel. But in the Eastern Cornbelt gains by ethanol plants were mostly non-existent with a few plants bidding lower. At the Gulf, bids were up 6 cents a bushel, but increasing barge rates on the week, muted the Gulf’s impact on upstream river terminals with bids up only 2 cents a bushel.

 

For soybeans, basis levels were off 4 cents a bushels as late-season cash premiums paid by buyers have eroded quickly since the USDA report last week. Soybean plants in particular were hard hit this week, giving up 7 cents a bushel on average and many plants posting losses of 10 to 20 cents on basis for the week. At the Gulf, export basis was 8 cents higher but it had little impact on upstream river terminals which lowered basis by 3 cents on average for the week.  

August 21, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 253

Will Pro Farmer Yield Estimates Lift Corn?

Pro Farmer is set to release its yield forecast for the U.S. after the close of trade today. With some deviation from the August USDA yield projections on a state by state basis, can Pro Farmer's announcement move the market?

In the overnight session the grains were mostly mixed with corn showing relative strength with a 3/4 cent gain. Soybeans slipped 5 1/4 cents lower and wheat fell another 4 cents. The U.S. dollar is trading down .6 percent and crude oil is off 41 cents. Pro Farmer will release its U.S. yield forecast today after the close of trade.

 

Last night Pro Farmer announced its Minnesota Corn yield estimate at 190.87 bushels per acre which was up significantly from last year’s 170.76 and the USDA’s August estimate of 184 bushels per acre. The scouting tour also counted an 8 percent increase in soybean pods over last year with a count of 1,119.22 in a 3x3 foot area. Pro Farmer estimated Iowa corn yield at 180.25 bushels per acre, down from the August USDA production estimate of 183 bushels per acre. Soybean pod count in Iowa was up 3.8 percent this year with 1,219.21 pods counted in a 3x3 foot area.

 

In Europe, FranceAgrimer rated the French corn crop 55 percent good-to-excellent this week which was unchanged from the previous week showing some stabilization in the crop after hot, dry conditions stressed the crop this growing season.

 

China soybean imports rose to 9.5 million metric tons in the month of July, an increase of 27 percent over last year. China’s corn and corn substitutes also hit record highs in July as buyers took advantage of cheap South American prices.  

August 20, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 246

Can Strong Export Sales Lift the Market?

Soybeans have been breaking into new lows recently as the weather continues to be optimal during its most critical development stage. Can strong export sales help turn the grain around?

In the overnight session the grains traded mixed with December Corn up 2 1/2 cents, soybeans down 1 cent and wheat in Chicago up 4 cents. The U.S dollar is down .12 percent and crude oil is mostly unchanged.

 

Pro Farmer went through Iowa and Illinois on Wednesday and reported at the end of the day its forecast for Illinois is 171.64 bushels per acre which is on par with the August USDA forecast of 172BPA. This would be a 14 percent drop in yield from the previous year. Both Pro Farmer and the USDA are below the latest Planalytics forecast of 176.2 BPA. The soybean pod count was 1,190.47 in a 3x3 foot area which was down 12 percent from the previous year. The Pro Farmer crop tour will be leaving Iowa this morning and scouting crops in Minnesota today. The tour will meet in Rochester, MN and release their final U.S yield projections later today.

 

Export sales were positive this week falling within analyst expectations for all the grains. Old crop corn booked 282,700 metric tons which beat analyst expectations and soybeans booked a positive 46,400 metric tons which was above the 0-200,000 metric tons expected by analysts. Wheat sales were on the low end the expected range at 314,400 metric tons. New Crop corn and soybeans were on the high end of expectations, with corn booking 576,400 metric tons and soybeans with 784,400 metric tons this week.

 

Ethanol production was unchanged this week at 965,000 barrels per day. Ethanol production remains well over the 4 year average and significantly higher than last year at this time. Ethanol stocks increased 32,000 barrels to 18.56 million barrels this week. 

August 19, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 127

Grains Modestly Higher in Night Trade

Crop Tour News shows Indiana's corn yield is down

Grains were modestly higher in night trade with corn and beans posting slightly better than a 1-cent advance, while wheat in Chicago and Kansas City was unchanged.

 

In soybeans, new-crop month November futures fell below the pivotal $9 mark in the night session reaching a low of $8.98, but managed to recover back to the $9.07 area going into the break. Previous lows set back in early June of $8.96 are within striking distance this morning and could prove as a pivotal point of trading this morning.

 

In crop tour news, Pro Farmer’s tour results from last night showed Indiana's corn yield at 142.94 bushels per acre, down from 185.03 a year ago and the three-year tour average of 155.21. Indiana's avg soybean pod count was 1,093.08, compared with the year-ago 1,220.79 and three-year avg of 1,146.39. The tour put Nebraska's corn yield at 165.16 bpa, up from 163.77 last year and the three-year tour average of 150.16. Nebraska pod counts averaged 1,220.02, up from 1,103.26 last year and the three-year tour average of 1,045.54 pods. Today, tour participants will be scouting Iowa and Illinois.

 

For wheat, spring wheat harvest is progressing rapidly in the Northern Plains where harvest reports are mostly positive with good yields being reported. On the demand side, however, there seems to be little outside stimulus to move supplies out of the country. In Portland, there were four grain ships this week, only one of which was loading, according to USDA. Last year at this same time, 15 grain ships were at that port.

August 18, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 188
August 18, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 258

Can Pro Farmer Findings Lift Corn?

Yields are highly variable in the eastern grain belt due to the excessive moisture early on in the season. Can Pro Farmer's yield estimate support corn prices?

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with corn unchanged, soybeans down 7 cents and wheat down ¾ of a cent. The U.S. dollar is trading .1% higher this morning and crude oil has slid 8 cents.

 

The Pro Farmer results from day 1 showed strong South Dakota production with an estimated yield in the state of 165.94 bushels per acre compared to last year’s estimate of 152.71 bushels per acre. The number of Soybean pods was about on par with last year’s levels. In the Eastern leg of the tour yields were not nearly as positive. Pro Farmer estimated Ohio corn yield at 148.37 bushels per acre which was down significantly from the 182.11 bushels last year. The Pro Farmer Ohio yield estimate is also considerably lower than the latest production forecast from the USDA in the August report which pegged Ohio yield at 168 bushels per acre.

 

Corn conditions rated good to excellent fell 1 percentage point this week to 69 percent which was in line with analyst expectations. Corn development is still in line with the 4 year moving average with 71 percent of the crop in the Dough stage this week.  Soybean conditions were better than expected with 63 percent rated good to excellent, unchanged on the week. Traders were looking for at least a percentage point decline in corn and soybeans. Pod setting is 79 percent complete throughout the majority of the crop.  

 

NOPA crush for the month of July was 3 million bushels higher than expectations. Yesterday at 11 AM CST the National Oilseed Processors Association announced that 145.227 million bushels were crushed in July compared to expectations of 141.5 million bushels. Soy oil stocks were above expectations with 1.624 billion pounds in July.    

 

Export inspections beat analyst expectations yesterday for wheat and soybeans. Wheat recorded 560,083 metric tons which was above expectations which ranged from 300,000-425,000 metric tons. Soybeans also beat expectations which ranged from 75,000 to 200,000 metric tons by recording inspections of 375,763 metric tons this week. Corn met expectations with 890,083 metric tons inspected for export this week.  

August 17, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 225

Traders Eye NOPA Crush

Traders will be watching NOPA crush numbers scheduled for release this morning.

In the overnight session the grains moved higher with corn up 2 ¾ cents, soybeans up 2 ½ cents and wheat up 1 ¼ cents this morning. The U.S. dollar is relatively quiet but the Russian Rouble touched a 6 month low against the dollar today and crude oil is down 65 cents this morning. This morning a group of Israeli private buyers purchased 110,000 metric tons of corn to be sourced from optional origins.

 

NOPA crush numbers are scheduled for release today at 11 AM CST. The average analyst guess for July crush is 141.175 million bushels. Last year July crush was reported at 119.620 million bushels and the four year average for crush in July is 124.094 million bushels. The average soyoil stocks are expected to be 1.592 billion pounds.

 

This morning the USDA released the total number of acres that went to “prevent plant” this year. According to the report 2.301 million acres of corn, 2.173 million acres of soybeans and .693 million acres of wheat were reported as of August 3rd.

 

The annual pro farmer tour kicked off today and will run through the 20th. The tour will have two legs which will include the Eastern tour and the Western Tour. The eastern tour will wrap up the first day Fishers, IN while the western tour will stop at Grand Island, NE. On Thursday August 20th the two groups will meet in Rochester, MN. 

August 14, 2015 | Cody Bills | Views: 431

Page 2 of 62 pages  < 1 2 3 4 >  Last ›

More Articles

Can Soybeans Rebound Higher?

August 27, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills

In the overnight session the grains are trading higher with soybeans leading the charge up 14 1/2 cents, corn up 1 1/2 cents and wheat up 3/4 of a penny. The U.S. dollar index is trading 1/2 a percent higher and crude oil is up $1.33. This morning exporters sold 130,000 metric tons of new...

[Read More]

Global Markets Try to Rebound

August 26, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills

In the overnight session the grains traded lower with corn up 1 cent, soybeans unchanged and wheat up 1 1/4 cents this morning. The U.S. dollar is trading up .38 percent and crude oil is 34 cents higher this morning. This morning the U.S. stock market is expected to open higher after a...

[Read More]