November 16, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 397
November 16, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 136

US Dollar Index Continues to Hold on to 13-Month Highs

Grains continue their move into positive territory

Overnight saw a continuation of Tuesday’s move with grains in positive territory going into the break. Crude oil, after gaining $2.50 a barrel on Tuesday turned lower this morning as did equity futures. The USD index continues to hold on to 13-month highs.

 

USDA reported a 165,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China.

 

On Monday NOPA soy crush numbers came in much bigger than expected with a monthly October crush of 164.6 MB, well above the average analyst estimate of 160.5 MB. However, bean oil stocks were also slightly higher at 1.343 billion pounds versus expectations of 1.323 billion.

 

In overnight news, Algeria bought 40,000 MT of optional-origin wheat. A feed group from Taiwan bought 65,000 MT of corn, thought likely to be sourced from the US.

 

Export values for corn held up well this week as Argentina and Europe corn prices strengthen relative to US values. However, soybean prices in Brazil and Argentina turned sharply lower relative to US values this week which could hamper US competitiveness.

 

 

Oil prices shed more than one percent on Wednesday, returning some of the gains made in one of the year's biggest rallies a day earlier, after weekly U.S. crude stocks rose beyond expectations and a strong dollar weighed on commodities. Weekly U.S. crude oil stocks surged by 3.6 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) industry group said, exceeding analyst expectations of a 1.5-million-barrel rise. Official EIA data is to be released at 9:30 am CDT and is expected to show a 1.48 million barrel build.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 15, 2016 | Kevin McNew | Views: 179
November 15, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 143

Grains Posted Modest Gains in Overnight Session

US Dollar in Positive Territory

Grains posted modest gains overnight while crude oil was sharply higher. The US Dollar was in positive territory holding on to 13-month highs.

 

USDA announced two soybean sales this morning totaling 247,500 MT.

 

On Monday USDA pegged the corn and soybean harvest nearly complete with 94% and 97% harvested, respectively. Winter wheat ratings inched higher hitting 59% good-to-excellent versus 58% last week and 52% last year.

 

Curbs on speculation in Chinese markets continued to take their toll as Chinese soybean prices fell 4.4% overnight after falling 5% on Monday. Chinese investors renewed their push into commodity futures this month and increased their bets shortly after Republican Donald Trump's shocking U.S. presidential win on Nov. 8 amid a sell-off in global markets.

 

Japan was in the market to buy wheat in a usual tender that is generally done 3 times a month. Later this morning NOPA will release its October crush figures with analysts looking for 160.5 MB. Estimates range from 18.3 to 163.1. The report will be released at 11 am CDT.

In South America, moisture continues to improve for N. Brazil over the next 2 weeks while it tends to drier conditions in C. Brazil. Rains should be limited next 10 days in wet SW 1/4 of Arg./far S. Brazil, but wetter trends in 11-15 day. Argentina corn/soy seeding to remain slow to recover in SW but move along well elsewhere.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 14, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 186
November 14, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 82

US Dollar Shoots Higher in the Overnight Session

Grains were down in the overnight

Grains were down in the overnight session while the US Dollar shot sharply higher. Crude oil was also off in the night trade.

 

USDA this morning announced 175,000 MT of milo to China, 324,000 MT of soybeans to China and 132,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations.

 

Chinese soybean futures tumbled 5% on Monday, extending a decline that started in evening trade on Friday on talk of government measures to crack down on speculation. China has implemented a series of fee hikes in recent months to crack down on speculative trading it suspects is behind a surge in everything from coal to rubber, which helped drive capital out of the commodities market. Talk that the government could take more measures to curb speculation led institutional investors to pull out of the market, sparking a sell-off in soybean, soymeal and rapemeal futures.

 

Overnight, the Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased about 63,000 MT of corn which can be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Thursday.  Also, Tunisia bought 100,000 MT of soft white wheat, also optional origin.

In South American weather, weekend rains were beneficial to N.Brazil with ongoing rains expected through the next 2 weeks. Central Brazil has some noted dryness in key corn/soy regions.  Showers ease this week in the rain drenched Argentina but 11-15 day rain chances return & limit drying.

 

Oil was lower to start the week hitting its lowest mark in over 3 months, but seemed to find support from China's daily crude oil production in October falling to the lowest in more than seven years. Chinese producers remain reluctant to drill new wells amid tepid oil prices and as output drops from aging wells.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 71

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 11/11/2016

National corn and soybean basis moved higher across the board this week. This is the first time we have seen unanimous movement higher since the end of August.  

 

On average, corn moved higher by 1 1/2 cents, the first move in either direction in three weeks. Corn along the river gained momentum from last week gaining 8 cents; ethanol plants moved slightly higher by 1 1/4 cents from last week. Some ethanol plants see Trump’s refinery policies as a wildcard for them and are awaiting further news.  

 

Soybeans saw strong movement higher gaining an average of 3 cents per bushel. Crush facilities gained 5 1/4 cents, partly supported by Palm Oil news this week. Soy river facilities continued to be the strongest movers this week up 10 1/2 cents.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 80

Chicago Soybean Futures Were Higher on Friday

Wheat prices were little changed

“If the old adage “big crops become bigger” rings true, the bearish supply narrative for US corn and soybeans will flourish all the way into January, and possibly beyond.” -News out of Chicago this a.m.

 

US trade expectations for the resumption of grain and soy complex trading at the CBOT on Friday.  WHEAT - Steady to up 2 cents per bushel. Some bargain buying is expected after two days of losses pushed market to 2 ½ week low. But ample global supplies, low export demand for US offerings keep gains in check.

 

Chicago soybean futures were higher on Friday, boosted by concerns about planting delays in Argentina and a rise in palm oil prices to the highest level in more than four years.  

 

Wheat prices were little changed and remained on track for a weekly loss while corn futures eased as ample supplies kept both markets on the defensive. Dealers say the market was boosted by strong palm oil prices, with Malaysian futures rising to their highest level in more than four years on Friday due to low stocks.


 

Argentine farmers are expected to plant 19.6 million hectares with soybeans this season, down 2.5 percent from the previous crop year as growers pile into corn and wheat...the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.

 

Brazil’s official crop supply agency, Conab, forecast Brazil early next year would harvest a soybean crop of 101.6 MT to 103.5 MT, down slightly from its outlook of 101.9 to 104.0 MT last month.

 

OPEC reported an increase in its oil production in October to a record high led by members hoping to be exempt from the producer group’s attempt to curb supply, pointing to an even larger global surplus next year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 33.64 million barrels per day last month, according to figures OPEC collects from secondary sources, up 240,000 bpd from September, OPEC said in a monthly report.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 10, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 157

USDA Predicts Largest Corn Yield to Date

Rain Delays Wheat Harvest in Australia

"A lot of the bearish news is out there, so how much more bearish can you be when we know there is a lot of grain and oilseeds?" --News out of Chicago this a.m.

 

Palm oil stocks rose 1.7% for the month, but were expected to be up 8%, so bullish for Palm Oil, bullish for beans.

 

The monthly crop production report on Wednesday, the USDA struck down analysts' assumptions of a shrinking domestic corn crop with a yield projection of 175.3 bushels per acre, some 1 percent higher than both last month's estimate and market expectations. This figure marks the largest prediction of corn yield to date from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

 

Did You Know?

Our website, Grain Hedge, has a resource for Trading Hours and Contract Specifications

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Exporters sell 126,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during 2016/2017 marketing year.  Exporters sell 140,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Saudi Arabia during 2016/2017 marketing year.--USDA

 

Rain is delaying the wheat harvest in parts of Australia, threatening to disrupt deliveries from the world's #4 exporter of the grain to key markets. Expecting a near-record crop of close to 30 MT, exporters had sold new-crop wheat for shipment in Nov and Dec.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES-

                                       Actual             Expected

Corn                         1,233 Current

                                1,282 New           1,100-1,400

Soybeans                  1,001 Current

                                1,247 New           1,700-2,000

Wheat                        769 Current

                                  787 New                300-500

 


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

November 09, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 199

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