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November 20, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 141

Export Sales Bad News for Soybeans

Soybean sales lagged expectations providing little support for a continued move higher.

In the overnight session corn increased 2 ¼ cents, soybeans increased 1 ¾ cents and wheat fell 3 cents as we go into the morning pause in trade. Export sales which were released at 7:30 CST caused soybeans to give back most of the gains it had achieved in an overnight bounce.

 

In this morning’s export sales report, wheat sales fell within market expectations booking 361,700 metric tons, down 13 percent from the previous week. Corn booked 908,700 metric tons, up 80% from last week and beating expectations by a large margin. Expectations for corn sales ranged from 500,000-700,000 metric tons. Soybean sales for 483,000 metric tons disappointed traders with expectations for sales between 700,000-1,000,000 metric tons. Export sales for soybeans fell from the previous week by 55 percent. Soybean Meal sales were strong however with 265,700 metric tons of new sales well over the analyst range of 100,000 metric tons of cancelations to 100,000 tons of new sales.

 

Ethanol production numbers showed another week of increased production with 970,000 barrels per day reported on Wednesday. Ethanol production improved 24,000 barrels per day compared to last week. Ethanol stocks declined week over week by 370,000 barrels to 17.34 million barrels.

 

December corn looks to have found some support at $3.62 which also is the 100 day moving average. Strong ethanol numbers yesterday and exceptionally strong export sales this week should help to support corn in today’s trade. Keep in mind that CIF basis at the Gulf has slipped to the lowest levels in three weeks as farmer sales and declining barge rates pressure basis.

November 19, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 376

Wheat Trading Lower

Tune in to hear Cody discuss what's expected out of tomorrow's export sales report. He also breaks down why wheat continues to trade lower.

Wheat Trading Lower
November 18, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 274
November 17, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 429
November 14, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 495

Cash Market Update

Kevin and Cody discuss the cash basis movement on a national level this Friday.

Corn and bean futures prices found strength this week and the cash market added on to the gains with a 2 cent basis increase on average across the US this week.

 

In corn, ethanol plants were a dominant driver adding 4 cents a bushel as a group as ethanol production continues to accelerate. Weekly ethanol output was at 946,000 barrels per day, a marketing year high, and puts year-to-date output 6.1% ahead of last year's pace. USDA has only a 0.3% increase expected for annual corn use for ethanol.  Export markets were also up with the Gulf port basis advancing 3 cents a bushel.  Weekly export inspections were at 517,000 MT on par with expectations but a bit slim for this time of year.

 

By comparison, soybean export inspections continue to set a blistering pace with 2,481,000 MT for the week and cumulative exports at 13.5 MMT compared to 11.8 MMT for the same period last year.  This is 14.4% higher than 2013 while USDA is only factoring in a 4.4% increase year on year. However, basis levels at the Gulf this week were flat with some river terminals in the Upper Midwest seeing lower basis as barge rates there moved higher.  Soy plants were up as a group gaining 3.4 cents a bushel, but some areas of Minnesota and Iowa were weaker with 5 to 10 cent declines being fairly common by plants in this region.

 

November 13, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 443

Whats behind corns move higher?

Kevin and Cody discuss the positive day in the grains and talk about some of the drivers behind the scenes. Cody discusses some key price levels to keep an eye on if corn continues its move higher tomorrow.

November 12, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 594

Soybeans Dip Lower Today

Cody and Kevin discuss the effects of the sudden rise in price of Argentinian Soymeal. Kevin also discusses implications the end of the cease fire in Ukraine.

Soybeans Dip Lower Today
November 11, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 292

Soybean Rally Continues

Cody and Kevin talk about what is behind the soybean rally and how much longer it might last. Kevin discussed the cash market reaction and Cody talks about some price targets that producers should be paying close attention to.

November 10, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 289

Mixed Markets Today

Tune in to hear Kevin and Cody discuss how export sales and the WASDE affected the markets today.

November 07, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 382

Markets mixed going into the weekend

Cody and Logan talk about the trade action on Friday and what producers should be thinking about as they come out of Harvest. Cody also digs into the average basis changes seen at the national level.

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