August 31, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 68

Soybeans Continue their Slide

US Dollar continues it's recovery

Soybeans slid for a seventh consecutive session to trade close to last session's four-week low as the U.S. crop matures in ideal growing conditions. Corn and wheat were mixed in directionless trade. In outside markets, the US dollar continued its recovery reaching its highest mark in 3 weeks.

 

This morning the USDA released new export deals with 187,000 MT of soybeans to China, 275,000 MT of corn to Mexico, and as rare wheat deal for HRW of 138,000 MT to unknown destinations.

 

Egypt's state grains buyer GASC received very low participation by trading companies in an international tender to purchase wheat on Wednesday as changing quality rules about the ergot fungus caused uncertainty. Only one trading company was said to have participated in the tender on Wednesday. GASC had earlier on Wednesday said it would only accept wheat with a zero content level of the controversial fungus ergot, which traders say is almost impossible to achieve in wheat in big volumes.

 

Basis levels especially for spot beans are starting to weaken as prices between old- and new-crop delivery begin to merge. With first notice day in Sep corn, many buyers rolled bids to Dec and kept basis levels fairly steady on the roll, although there is some delivery pressure as 440 corn contracts were delivered on for first notice day.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 121
August 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 116

Corn and Soybeans Mixed Overnight

Crude Oil and US Dollar were Higher

Grains were mixed overnight with corn and soybeans drifting lower while wheat managed to find its way into positive territory. Outside markets saw crude oil and the US dollar higher.

 

After the close Monday, USDA’s crop progress report showed the corn condition held steady at 75% good-to-excellent, while the soybean crop gained 1% going to 73% good-to-excellent. The corn crop is 9% mature versus the 5-year average of 11%.

 

This morning, USDA announced a sale of 126,000 MT of soybeans. On Monday, they announced a deal for 393,000 MT of soybeans.

 

Farm Futures magazine released the results of a farmer survey that showed growers are more likely to plant soybeans next year versus wheat and corn. Growers will plant 84.4 million acres of soybeans next spring, up from 83.7 million in 2016, and 93.1 million acres of corn, down from 94.1 million this year, according to the survey. Low prices will prompt farmers to slash wheat area for a fourth straight season to 49.1 million acres, which would be the lowest U.S. all-wheat acreage since 1970, according to the online survey of 1,225 farmers conducted in late July and early August.

 

Oil futures fell Monday on growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as next month and that a group of major crude producers may fail to come up with a pact to stabilize output.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 29, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 158
August 29, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 145

Grains Continue to Press Lower

Crude Oil also Slid to Start the Week

Grains continued to press to lower prices to start the week. In outside markets, crude oil also slid while the US dollar pushed higher.

 

After the close Friday, Pro Farmer released their US crop estimates pegging the US corn yield at 170.2. That is well below USDA’s forecast of 175.1 but still record large. For soybeans, Pro Farmer came in at a yield of 49.3, up from USDA’s forecast of 48.9.

 

This morning, USDA announced a sale of 393,000 MT of soybeans. In other export news, South Korea's Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCOPIA) purchased about 55,000 MT of corn, which can be sourced from optional origins. Also, Jordan is tendering for 100,000 MT of hard milling wheat. Egypt reinstated on Sunday a controversial ban on wheat shipments containing even the slightest amount of a common grain fungus, baffling traders who had returned to the Egyptian market just last month when the ban was lifted.

 

On Friday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen in a speech delivered at a conference suggested the Fed will likely raise interest rates in the near future as the US economy continues to improve. That sent the US dollar higher on Friday and continues to support it this morning.
 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 400
August 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 153

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 08/26/2016

The cash markets remained relatively stable this week posing slight gains of an average of 1 cent per bushel.

 

This week Spanish energy firm Abengoa sold 5 of its Ethanol plants to Green Plains Inc. of Omaha, NE. There have not been many indications how this will affect ethanol basis in the short term. Ethanol plants regained last week’s losses gaining 1.5 cents. Corn basis along the river saw marginal gains of 1 cent per bushel. Nationally however, corn basis was down almost half a cent per bushel. This is the third week in a row corn basis has went down.

 

Soybeans have been a different story. Soybean demand remains high and analysts expect strong demand to continue despite the lower prices and strong yield potential. Basis at river terminals is most indicative of the strong demand and saw gains of 7.5 cents per bushel. Crush facilities saw basis gains as well, gaining almost 1 cent. Nationally soybeans gained 1.5 cents per bushel.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 151

Overnight Session Saw Soybeans Trying to Reverse Yesterday’s Sell Off

Grains in positive territory to start the day

Grains were in positive territory to start today. Soybeans were trying to reverse yesterday’s punishing sell-off while wheat and corn were only fractionally higher in anemic trade.

 

Day 4 of the Pro Farmer Tour estimated corn yields in Iowa at 188.17 bushels per acre, up from 180.25 bpa last year and the three-year crop tour average of 176.98 bpa. The estimate trailed the U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecast of 197 bpa. Soybean pod counts in a 3-by-3 foot area averaged 1,224.28 pods, just above last year's total of 1,219.21 pods and the three-year tour average of 1,106.70 pods.


Corn yield potential and soybean pod counts in Minnesota were above average but lower than 2015, scouts on an annual tour found on Thursday. Average corn yield was pegged at 182.32 bushels per acre. That compares with the tour's three-year average for the state of 180.91 bushels per acre and its 2015 findings of 190.87 bushels per acre. Minnesota soybean pod counts in a 3-by-3 foot area were at 1,107.60, down from 1,119.22 in 2015 but up from the three-year average of 1,006.73. Pro Farmer will release their US crop production forecasts today after the markets close.

 

In France, the corn crop there remained stable last week, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday, after two weeks of decline that suggested dry summer weather was having an effect in the European Union's biggest grain producer. Some 63% of the crop was rated good or excellent as of Aug. 22, unchanged from a week earlier.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 143

Day 3 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Projections

Grains were mixed in the overnight.

Grains were mixed overnight with Nov beans spending much of the night below $10 while corn and wheat were holding onto small gains going into the break.

 

Day 3 of ProThe annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour on Wednesday projected Illinois' corn yield potential sharply higher than last year but the estimates trailed USDA’s record-large forecast.
Scouts on the four-day tour predicted average corn yields in Illinois at 193.50 bushels per acre, up from 171.64 bpa last year and the three-year crop tour average of 179.69 bpa. The outlook was below USDA's Aug. 12 estimate of 200 bpa, which if realized would equal 2014's record average yields in the state. Soybean pod counts in a 3-by-3 foot area were calculated at a statewide average of 1,318.09, up both from 1,190.47 pods in 2015 and the three-year tour average of 1,201.87 pods.
 

In Western Iowa, Pro Farmer pegged the crop there at 187.5 vs 181.5 in 2015 and a 3-year average of 175.9. For soybeans, the pod count came in at 1,290 this year vs 1,263 last year and a 3-year average of 1,161.

 

The International Grains Council on Thursday raised its forecasts for both world wheat and corn production in the 2016/17 season.  The IGC projected world wheat production in 2016/17 at 743 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 735.  World corn production in 2016/17 was seen at 1.030 billion tonnes, up from a previous projection of 1.017 billion.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

                            OC-Act        OC-Exp     NC-Act           NC-Exp

Corn                            71       100-250       1,059       800-1,000

Soybeans                   115         50-200       1,939    1,100-1,300

Wheat                                                         379          400-600


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 474

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