September 15, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 274

Grains Struggling to Hold Modest Gains

Crude and Equities also trying to recover from yesterday's sharp sell-down

Grains were struggling to hold on to modest gains going into the morning break. Outside markets saw crude oil and equities also try to recover from yesterday’s sharp sell-down.

 

NOPA soybean crush figures are due out later this morning and are expected to reach 136.2 million bushels for the month of August. That would be a record large figure for the month if realized. Estimates range 128 to 142 MB.

In weather news, the Midwest should see rains return tonight into the weekend before breaking early next week. The long-term forecast for 16-30 days shows a wet trend, potentially slowing the US harvest.

 

Export sales this morning were unimpressive with all three commodities coming in at the low end of expectations for the week.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

                                         Actual     Expected

Corn                                     724      800-1,100

Soybeans                            1,012     900-1,200

Wheat                                   402       350-550

 

On Wednesday, EIA crude oil stocks were off for the week coming in 50,000 barrels below last week. Traders had expected a 3.8 million barrel build. However, gasoline stocks ballooned on the week helping push oil prices lower.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 14, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 319
September 14, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 193

Grains Slightly Weaker in Overnight Trade

Crude Oil Continues to Dip Lower

Grains were unchanged to slightly weaker in overnight trade while in outside markets equity futures tried to recover some of yesterday’s sharp losses while crude oil continued to dip lower.

 

Yesterday, Argentina's government said they were considering postponing a tax cut planned for next year on soy exports, as a recession in Latin America's third-largest economy eats into fiscal revenue. Also, Argentine farmers are expected to harvest at least 15 MMT of wheat in the 2016/17 crop year versus 11.3 in the previous season. Wheat planting in Argentina expanded dramatically when President Mauricio Macri eliminated export taxes soon after his December inauguration.

 

Japan's Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 149,231 tonnes of food quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

 

The US has issued a challenge with the WTO for China's price supports for domestic production of rice, wheat and corn. The US Trade Representative's office said China's "market price support" for these grains was estimated to be nearly $100 billion above the WTO limits and constitutes an artificial government incentive for Chinese farmers to increase output.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is reporting a 1.4-million-build in US crude oil inventory over last week—bursting the bubble created the week before when official data showed the biggest draw on inventory in a century. Still, the build is much lower than expectations of a 4-million-barrel build, in part because the release of shut-in oil following a Gulf of Mexico hurricane.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

September 13, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 285
September 13, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 228

Grains Continue to Sink Lower

Crude Oil also Sharply Lower

Grains continued to sink lower overnight as the weight of bigger crops continues to pressure the market. Outside markets saw crude oil and equity indices sharply lower while the US dollar turned higher.

 

USDA’s crop report on Monday did little to change the bearish sentiment gripping the market. Soybean production came in well above expectations, eclipsing a 4.21 billion bushel crop on a +50 bushel per acre yield. For corn, USDA was lower than their August estimate but not as low as the average analyst expectation.

 

The first report by USDA on corn harvest pegged the US crop at 5%, behind the 5-yr. avg. of 7%, which was also the avg. of trade expectations.Both corn and soybean condition ratings held firm on the week.

 

In international news, Australia on Monday raised its forecast for wheat production for the 2016/17 season by 14.6% to 28.08 MMT,  up from a forecast in June for 24.51 MMT .The raised forecast is in line with a Reuters survey of 10 analysts and traders who said they were expecting an Australian wheat harvest of 28 million tonnes.

 

Energy prices slid, weighing on currencies of commodity-producing nations, after the International Energy Agency said an oil glut will last longer than initially estimated, persisting well into 2017.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

September 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 413
September 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 252

Grains Lower Overnight as Traders Await USDA

Oil falls for a 2nd trading day in a row.

Grains were lower overnight as traders wait for USDA’s report later this morning for further direction. In outside markets, crude oil and equities were sharply lower.

 

Today’s USDA report is expected to show a decline in US corn production and an increase in soybeans relative to USDA’s report in August.  Average analyst estimates call for a 173.4 bushel corn yield producing a 15.03 billion bushel crop. That is off from August’s estimates of 175.1 and 15.13, respectively

 

Meanwhile, good growing conditions in August have traders expecting a tick up in soybean production and yields. The August forecast by USDA was a 4.06 billion bushel crop on a 48.9 bushel per acre yield. Analysts are looking for today’s numbers to be 4.09 billion and 49.2 bushels per acre.

 

Taiwan's MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy 40,000 to 65,000 MT of corn which can be sourced from the United States or Brazil.

 

Oil fell for a second trading day in a row on Monday, after speculators cut their bullish bets by the most in three months last week and U.S. crude drillers added more rigs for a tenth week running. Adding to the pressure on the oil price, the dollar rose against most emerging-market currencies, as traders look for a greater chance of U.S. interest rates rising next week, which forced up bond yields and dented the broader commodities complex.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 09, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 233

Weekly Cash Comments Sept 9

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 9/9/2016

Grain basis held steady after this week after a sharp turn lower last week.

 

Overall corn gained 1 cent per bushel canceling out last week’s move lower. Ethanol remained steady this week averaging no changes. Corn along the river moved slightly lower this week off ¼ cent per bushel. Even with strong exports that exceeded expectations, corn seemed to be in limbo waiting on the supply and demand report for further direction.

Soybean basis continued lower following the very weak beginning to September. Basis levels are continuing to have trouble finding support and were off and average of 2 cents per bushel. Crush facilities managed to gain ½ cents per bushel and expected world demand for soyoil remains high. Soybeans along the river continued to move lower losing 7 cents this week.

 

 

September 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 295
September 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 282

Nov Beans Clear the $9.80 Hurdle in the Overnight

US dollar continued to erode and crude oil prices were above $46 a barrel.

Grains rallied again overnight as Nov beans cleared the $9.80 hurdle heading into the morning break. In outside markets, the US dollar continued to erode and crude oil prices were above $46 a barrel.

 

Private analysts continue to weigh in on the US crop size ahead of Monday’s USDA crop production report. Yesterday Linn Group pegged the US corn yield at 171.5, well below USDA’s August forecast of 175.1. For soybeans, they expect a yield of 49.6 bushels per acre versus USDA’s previous forecast of 48.9. Planalytics final forecast for the season was also announced as 171.1 and 49.6.

 

In overnight news, a South Korea feed buyer bought 69,000 MT of optional origin corn. Algeria bought between 300,000 and 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in a tender on Wednesday, paying around $197 a tonne. Some traders put the volume higher at 500,000 tonnes. Algeria, one of the world's largest grain importers, does not publish details of its tenders and results reported by traders are estimates.The wheat was expected to be sourced from several origins, reflecting reduced availability in Algeria's traditional supplier France after a poor harvest, traders said, citing the UK, Germany, Poland and the United States as possible choices alongside France.

 

China imported 7.67 MMT of soybeans in August, down 1.2% from 7.76 million tonnes in July, figures from the General Administration of Customs of China showed. China is also expected to see a smaller corn crop in 2015 as farmers there planted few acres in response to a subsidy elimination by the Chinese government. Production is expected to be off 2% from last year.


Oil prices rose 60 cents a barrel on Thursday after U.S. industry data showed a large drawdown in crude stocks, reflecting the temporary impact of an Atlantic storm. U.S. crude stocks fell by 12.1 million barrels last week, data from API showed after the market settled on Wednesday, compared with expectations for an increase of about 200,000 barrels.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

Page 10 of 121 pages ‹ First  < 8 9 10 11 12 >  Last ›

More Articles