October 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 619
October 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 225

Soybeans Continue to Climb Higher

US Dollar and Equity Futures Lower

Soybeans continued to ratchet higher while corn and wheat had some modest gains in sympathy. In outside markets, the US dollar and equity futures were lower and crude was sharply off.

 

Palm oil continued to rally overnight hitting a two-month high helping push soybeans higher and approaching the $10-mark. Egypt overnight announced they bought 420,000 MT of wheat from Russia and Romania. Although there was a US offer thrown into the pool, but none was accepted.

 

A South Korean feed maker is said to be shopping for 276,000 MT of corn and 69,000 MT of wheat for early 2017 delivery.

 

In South American weather, Brazil looks good for ample moisture over the next several weeks. Argentina will be dry thru the weekend but rains are expected to bring beneficial moisture early next week.

Crude oil took a hit as API stocks data after Tuesday’s close showed a 5 million barrel build in oil inventories and a nearly 2 million barrel build. For today’s official EIA data, the trade is only looking for a 750,000 barrel build in oil and a 1.25 million barrel decline in gas inventories.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 239
October 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 254

Corn and Wheat Hovering Around Unchanged in the Overnight

Barge Rates Shot Up Yesterday

Grains were mixed overnight as soybeans were tending weaker while corn and wheat were hovering around unchanged going into the morning break. In outside markets, equity futures and crude oil were in slightly positive territory.

 

On Monday USDA reported that the US corn crop was 61% harvested versus 46% last week and 63% for the 5-year average. Soybeans was 76% harvested versus 62% last week and is on par with the 5-year average.

 

In overnight action, Egypt tendered for more wheat and 7 offers were made with the lowest coming in at $182.74/MT from Russia, although there was one US offer by Cargill for $185. South Korea was also in the market for 70,000 MT of corn. This morning USDA announced a 516,000 MT sale of US soybeans to China.

Barge rates shot up yesterday along the river with gains of 10 cents or more a bushel in barge freight costs. River terminals had steep losses in basis, especially soybeans which saw CME delivery point markets lose 15 cents on spot basis. Current basis levels at CME soybean delivery facilities are running 25 cents below normal as we head closer to first notice day on Monday for November futures.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 291
October 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 250

Soybeans Start the Week in Positive Territory

Ideal Harvest Conditions this past Weekend

Soybeans started the week in positive territory posting double-digit gains and at one point hitting the $9.99 mark in the night session. Corn and wheat were slumping however.

 

Malaysian palm oil futures climbed to their strongest levels in a week in early trade on Monday. Palm oil futures for January were up 3.4 percent. Nearby Dec soybean oil futures were also surging, gaining 2.4 percent in the night trade.

 

Weekend weather was nearly ideal for harvest with rain keeping confined to the far East and Northwest of the country, while the Midwest was dry. Northern U.S. Midwest will receive rain Tuesday into Thursday of this week
With totals of 0.50 to 2.50 inches likely. US corn harvest is estimated to be  60-65% completed and beans at 75-80%.

Russian wheat export prices rose for the fifth consecutive week on continuing demand from Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, analysts said on Monday. Egypt's state grain buyer acquired 120,000 tonnes of Russian wheat on Oct. 20 in its third tender since the start of October.
Black Sea prices for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein content were at $175 a tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the end of last week, up $1 from a week earlier, Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR said in a note.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 557

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 10/21/2016

Corn and soybeans were off yet again but potentially nearing a bottom.

 

National corn basis was off by nearly 1 cent per bushel this week.  Ethanol facilities were again the big movers this week, off by 2 1/4 cents. River basis is beginning to find support from exports and low barge freight.

Cash soybeans were off an average of 2 cents per bushel this week. Crushing plants and river terminals were off by 3/4 of a cent. Monday saw some big hits to spot bean basis with losses at 5 to 10 cents at some key river terminals and processors.  Basis levels at interior crushing plants are running about 25 cents below normal for this time of year while river terminals are only off about 15 from the historical norm thanks to surging exports and lower barge freight.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 195

Export Sales Well Above Range of Trade Expectations

Chicago Soybeans Post Third Week of Gains

Chicago soybeans were set to post a third week of gains today after strong demand underpinned prices of the oilseed and offset pressure from a record US harvest and a rising dollar.

 

Corn and wheat are on track to fall slightly over the week as abundant global grain supplies continue to keep a lid on the cereal markets. The USDA reported export sales of US soybeans in the latest week at just over 2 million tonnes, well above the range of trade expectations for the 1.0 million to 1.3 million tonnes. The agency also said private exporters sold 192,000 tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destinations.

 

Private analytics firm, Informa Economics, projected a 5.7 percent increase in US soybean plantings for 2017 and a 3.7 percent decline in corn plantings. Informa forecast 2017 soybean plantings at 88.487 million acres, an all-time high if realized. The firm projected US corn plantings at 90.971 million acres.

Global stocks were set for their first weekly gain in four weeks on Friday and the dollar rose to its highest since March. Oil edged higher as Russia reiterated its commitment to joining a producer's' output freeze to stem a 2-year slide in prices.

 


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

October 20, 2016 | Tech Talk | Charlie Trauger | Views: 706

Tech Talk Adds New Author

Charlie Trauger draws on his production ag and software background to provide perspective on technologies affecting commercial agriculture

Tech Talk Adds New Author
Photo by Blue Coat Photos

My name is Charlie Trauger and I have been involved in trading, production agriculture, software technology, and sales/business development for the last 31 years. The opportunity to participate in the ‘Tech Talk’ Blog for Feed & Grain magazine is a chance for me to share technical ideas and products that might affect the grain and feed industry. 

Charlie Trauger, GlobalView Software, Inc.

I live in a small town in south central Nebraska and work full time for GlobalView Software, Inc. in Chicago (yes, I commute once in a while). I am also involved in part-time farming and ranching on the family farm that has been around for 135 years. I love living in an agricultural community as well as the chance to work and travel to large cities while doing exactly what I love, merging technology and agriculture.   

Why I am blogging on Feed & Grain's Tech Talk?

With both of my jobs, I get the opportunity to review and utilize new technology and hope to share what I see, both current and future for the grain and feed industry. I have been involved in startups and many new ventures related to technology and have found that just because you can do something does not mean you should! I hope to relay some of those past and future experiences to the Feed & Grain audience for at a minimum, another source of information, and perhaps some opinion of what can affect your businesses in this area.

What will I blog about?

I spend a lot of time in the business development area in agricultural technology, and plan to share what might be beneficial to our industry. Things like drones, block chain software, tools to assist with risk management, compliance, ransomware, etc. and how they might make our lives easier, or perhaps the other way around. 

How can you leave feedback?

I encourage feedback, comments and criticism. I don’t know it all and have a desire to hear from all of you. It’s how I learn as some of my thoughts and ideas won’t always work for you. You can reach me at (312) 628-2977, or email at charlie.trauger@gvsi.com.  Twitter @charlietraug and on LinkedIn. Sorry Facebook users, I recently shut this account down. I read a quote from someone who said “Life is long if you know what to do with it.” That prompted me to review the time I spent vs. value received and well, now I don’t know what my friends had for dinner, but have much more time to spend on other valuable activities. 

Albert Einstein stated “I fear the day that technology will surpass our human interaction. The world will have a generation of idiots.”  Looking at people in public with phones pasted to their faces, we might be getting close here! I am heading outdoors now to say hi to my neighbor, check back with me next week.  

October 20, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 273

Corn and Soybean Futures Rise for a Second Session

Crude Oil Rise to a 15-Month High on Wednesday

Chicago corn and soybean futures rose for a second straight session on Thursday as favorable demand news helped curb supply pressure from an advancing US harvest that is tipped to bring in record crops.

 

China, the world's top soybean importer, has been snapping up US soybean cargoes in recent weeks. Soybeans drew additional support after the USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 185,000 tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2016/17 marketing year.

 

The world faces plentiful wheat supplies in coming months and this is coming into attention again. After its recent rises, US wheat needs a price pullback for export competitiveness, said Stefan Vogel, head of agricultural commodity markets research at Rabobank.

 

Corn drew support from weekly data on ethanol. US Energy information Administration said on Wednesday that ethanol production last week increased by 36,000 barrels per day while stocks of the biofuel fell by 351,000 barrels.

Crude oil prices rose to a 15-month high on Wednesday after a US inventory draw-down, which boosted energy shares. Energy stocks led the way up on Wall Street, boosted by the higher oil prices.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

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