May 10, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 404
May 10, 2017 | Editor's View | Elise Schafer | Views: 462

Top Five Reasons to Attend Feed & Grain LIVE

Why should you attend? Because of the education, trade show, prizes and more!

Top Five Reasons to Attend Feed & Grain LIVE

Feed & Grain LIVE is just around the corner, but it’s not too late to decide to attend. Need help making your decision? Here are five key reasons you won’t want to miss this important conference:

  1. 2.5 Days of Education – Vital presentations to help you handle FSMA and OSHA regulations, improve your grain quality management and grain merchandising strategies, tips for training and cross-training and insights into world markets
  2. General Session – Greg Martinelli will deliver a captivating, comedic address featuring real-world examples of how agribusinesses can better prepare for the “day to day” type crises  
  3. FSMA Panel – Learn from the industry’s leading FSMA experts about best practices for implementing a written food safety plan
  4. Trade Show – More than 50 exhibitors covering an array of equipment and other products
  5. Two prize giveaways – Every attendee is entered into a drawing for a Yeti® Cooler or a Big Green Egg® !

Plus – You can’t beat the convenient location of Prairie Meadows, in Altoona, Iowa. Extended room discounts until May 15. Get your rooms reserved now.


Time is running out! The event starts Wednesday, May 31. Click here to register now. 

May 10, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 149

USDA Demand Data to be Released Today at 11 CST

Traders expect Corn and Wheat to see a Drop in Carry Out

Grains were mixed in narrow ranges ahead of the USDA report to be released later this morning.


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Overnight, France’s Ag Ministry dropped their wheat carry-out projections for the 2nd month in a row based on higher projected exports. They peg wheat stocks at 2.4 MMT for 2016/17 versus 2.6 MMT last month. This would be a 3-year low and off from the 3.3 million mark last year.

 

In soybeans, traders will carefully scrutinize USDA demand data in the upcoming report. Projections put US carry-out for 2017 at 555 MB, up from the current year carry-out of 445 MB. Soybeans have been supported of late by slow farmer selling in Brazil. Even with a record large crop, farmers there have only sold 50% of their production, a number that is normally around 65% for this time of year.

For corn and wheat, traders expect both crops to see about a 200 MB drop in carry-out between old- and new-crop years. On wheat, USDA will be pegging the winter wheat crop from surveys for the first time this year. Analysts expect a 1,293 MB crop, off from 1,672 last year.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 09, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 357
May 09, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 138

Traders Look for a Modest Drop in Corn and Wheat Carry Outs

USDA Reports 47 Percent of Corn Crop has been Planted

Grains were modestly higher overnight but the recovery felt fairly anemic following Monday’s sell-off.


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Monday after the close USDA reported that 47% of the corn crop had been planted. That was up from last week’s tally of 34% and above trade expectations at 44% but below the 52% normal pace for this time of the year. Soy planting came in at 14% planted vs 16% expected. The U.S. winter wheat crop was rated 53% good to excellent, down from 54% the previous week but above expectations for 51%.

 

France’s ag ministry pegged corn plantings at 1.39 million hectares down 2.3% from last year and 14.5% below the recent 5-year average. Dry and cold spring conditions along with persistent drought in the past two seasons have limited farmer sowing there.

 

The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association purchased 95,750 MT of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Tuesday. Japan in its usual tender bought 138,000 MT of wheat of which 76,000 MT was of US origin.

On Wednesday, USDA will release their first look at 2017/18 balance sheets. Traders look for a modest drop in wheat and corn carry-outs compared to the current marketing year but soy stocks are expected to build.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

May 08, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 251
May 08, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 214

Grains Weaker in the Overnight

In Outside Markets the US Dollar was Higher

Grains were weaker overnight with soybeans leading the complex lower on a 4-cent decline. In outside markets, the US Dollar was higher while equities and crude were in the red to start the day.


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Soybean imports to China in April rose 13.4% from a year ago, supported by strong demand from the soymeal industry, data from the China Customs showed on Monday. The total for the month was 8.02 MMT and marked the 4th month in a row of record imports. For the first four months of 2017 Chinese imports are up 18%. China will produce 14.3 MMT of soybeans this year, up 9.2% from 2016, said the China National Grain and Oils Information Center on Monday. Corn output will fall 3.7 percent to 211.5 MMT.

 

In the US, weekend rains were confined to the ECB and Southeast while the US Plains and WCB were dry helping to provide some drying relief. Rains this week are expected to be less intense compared to last week. A swath of moisture should bring 1 to 2 inches of rain from KS to IN this week, but Northern areas should remain fairly dry. But, next week more intense rains should return, targeting saturated soils in MO/IL/KY/IN.


In overnight deals, Pakistan reportedly bought 60,000 MT of US soybeans. Iraq received offers on its wheat tender with the lowest offer coming from US sources. Jordan also was tendering for 100,000 MT of hard milling wheat.

In outside markets, the election of French President Macron was as expected and markets breathed a sigh of relief. Oil prices were trying to stabilize after the intense sell-off last week. OPEC meets on May 25 when it is expected to discuss extending the cuts to the end of 2017, although analysts say a further six-month extension may not be enough.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 05, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 173

Kansas Crop Tour Projections

Grains were Mixed in the Overnight

Grains were mixed overnight with wheat and corn trying to reverse yesterday’s sharp sell-off while soybeans were in negative territory.


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On Thursday, the KS crop tour pegged the state’s crop at 281 MB, off from 467 MB last year but above the 250 MB which some analysts thought the crop could succumb to if the damage was severe enough. In Oklahoma, no crop tour was done but a private grain firm pegged the crop there at 100 MB off from 137 MB last year.


With these two states accounting for 25% of the US wheat production, and early projections pointing to a 37% loss in production, this sets the stage for next week’s USDA all wheat production forecast for 2017/18, the first of the year. An 1,800 to 1,900 MB crop seems reasonable based on lower acreage and normal, to slightly below normal yield potential. This would suggest new-crop stocks could approach 700 to 800 MB in USDA’s first Supply and Demand report of the year, to be released next week, and off of the 1.1 billion bushel carry-out currently.

Overnight, farm office France AgriMer said 74 percent of soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition as of May 1, compared with 78 percent a week earlier and marking a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Dry weather in the past month has raised concern about low moisture levels in France after a very dry winter, although rain has returned to much of France this week.

 

China sold 1.82 MMT of corn in a reserve auction overnight. This came in higher than expected suggesting that traders were bullish about corn prices going forward and feed producers were tight on inventories.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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May 04, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 261
May 04, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 137

Crop Scouts Reports from 2nd Day of Wheat Tour

Storms Crossing the Plains Today to bring another 2 to 4 Inches of Rain

Grains were lower overnight with wheat and soybeans leading the complex down. Corn was off slightly in quiet trade.


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Crop scouts on the second day of an annual three-day tour of Kansas hard red winter wheat fields projected an average yield of 46.9 bushels per acre in the southwestern portion of the state.  The figure is above the Wheat Quality Council tour's prior five-year average for the same area of 39.1, but down from the tour's year-ago finding of 49.3. Oklahoma's 2017 average winter wheat yield is projected at 33.7 bushels per acre, an official with the industry group Plains Grains said on Wednesday.  The estimate compares with the state's official 2016 yield of 39.0 bpa, a record high. Production in Oklahoma, typically the No. 2 or No. 3 U.S. winter wheat state, was forecast at 100.1 million bushels, based on harvested acreage of 2.98 million acres, said Mark Hodges, executive director of Plains Grains.

 

 

A storm crossing the Plains today is expected to bring another 2 to 4 inches of rain to already flooded Missouri and Illinois that will further pressure swollen rivers and streams. Major to catastrophic flooding in expected for some in the coming days. Fields completely under water will be at increased risk for replant. The good news is that by late week all of the rain will move into eastern regions, particularly the Northeast. A drying trend is expected over the entire Corn Belt south into Texas and the Delta for the
rest of the period, but temperatures will remain on the cooler side of normal. Still, planting pace should pick up where fields are dry, particularly in Nebraska and Iowa and points north. Above normal warmth will return to the Plains next week.

 

The European Commission trimmed its forecast for usable production of common wheat in the EU in the upcoming 2017/18 season to 141.9 MMT from 142.2 a month ago. The reduced forecast was still well above last year's estimated output of 134.4 MMT.

 

Export Sales-

 

  Actual

   Estimated

Wheat - OC

  258

   0-150

Wheat - NC

  563

   200-400

Corn - OC

  771

   700-900

Corn - NC

  24

   0-200

Soybeans-OC

  318

   300-500

Soybeans-NC

  12

   100-300

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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