July 22, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 329

Positive Signs for US Wheat

World news lends support to the wheat market, while temperatures back off recent highs.

Weather models continue to show a wet and cooling trend from the recent heat wave. Temperatures should return to seasonal norms by early next week and even dip below normal by late next week.

 

Yesterday after the close, Argentina’s government bumped up forecasts for the corn and bean crop for the 2015/16 marketing year. They pegged the soybean crop at 58.8 MMT vs 58.0 previously while the corn crop was projected to be 39.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 37.9 MMT

 

Wheat prospects deteriorated sharply in Europe in recent weeks due to worse than expected damage from heavy spring rain, prompting analysts to slash crop estimates with French output seen at its lowest in 13 years. Consultancy ODA Groupe expects the 2016 crop in the largest EU wheat producer and exporter to be less than 30 million tonnes, down from 32 million pegged last week and 35 million estimated on July 6. If realized, that would be the lowest French wheat harvest since 2003 and is far below the record 2015 crop of nearly 41 million tonnes.

 

Crude futures were on track for weekly losses on Friday as investors reassessed U.S. data on oil stocks and excesses in oil products in Europe and Asia. While many expect global oversupply of oil to ease in the near term, huge amounts of crude remain in vessels at sea and storage tanks on land as the rebalancing takes longer than some had anticipated. While U.S. production has been falling, crude inventories are at 519.5 million barrels, historically high for this time of year according to EIA.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 400
July 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 315

Grains Find Modest Strength in the Overnight

Equities, Crude and the US Dollar were Lower

Grains Find Modest Strength in the Overnight

Grains found modest support overnight trying to recover from the steep losses accumulated over the past three trade sessions. In outside markets, equities were lower as was crude oil and the US dollar.

 

Current weather models continue to point to a return to normal temperatures after today and Friday’s heat wave thru the Midwest.  The latest model shows heavier precip mid next week versus the model 24 hours ago.

In overnight news, Japan bought 165,048 MT in a regular wheat tender. Most of that or 99,473 MT was with the US, while the remainder was to Canada and Australia. South Korea’s state-run Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has purchased 20,000 tonnes of soybeans to be sourced from the United States and Canada in an international tender which took place on Thursday, European traders said.

 

Oil prices rose as much as 1 percent on Wednesday, lifting U.S. crude from two-month lows, after the U.S. government reported a ninth straight week of crude inventory draws, easing some concerns in a market worried about a glut. U.S. gasoline prices, however, hit four-month lows after the data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration also showed a surprise build in supplies of the motor fuel despite forecasts of American drivers hitting the road in record numbers this summer.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

 

                                OC-Act             OC-Exp         NC-Act         NC-Exp

Corn                            345              400-600            506          500-700

Soybeans                     325              300-500          1,001         500-700

Wheat                                                                    478          350-550


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 20, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 437
July 20, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 319

Crude Oil Holding Ground at 10-Week Low

Grains posted anemic gains in the overnight session.

Grains posted anemic gains overnight after yesterday’s sharp sell-off.  Equity futures were up overnight and crude oil was hovering around unchanged waiting for fresh EIA inventory data later this morning.

 

The latest weather models show hot weather on Thursday and Friday in the Midwest, but subsiding after that.  By early next week high temps are expected to be 7 degrees lower and by late next week be as much as 10 degrees lower. Rain also appears to be most likely this weekend into next week in the heart of the Corn Belt.

In overnight news, a South Korea feed buyer bought 70,000 MT of optional origin corn. Jordan passed on its tender aiming to buy 100,000 MT of wheat while Syria bought 200,000 MT of Russian wheat.

 

Crude oil is holding ground at a 10-week low, after the American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude supplies fell by 2.3 million barrels for the week ended July 15, according to sources. The closely watched Energy Information Administration report will be released Wednesday. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts forecast a decline of 1.25 million barrels for crude inventories.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

July 19, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 511
July 19, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 268

US Dollar Hits highest mark in Months

Grains were Lower in the Overnight

Grains were lower overnight while the US Dollar hit its highest mark in 4 months. Crude oil recovered some of yesterday's losses while equity futures drifted towards negative territory to start the day.

 

USDA’s crop progress report on Monday showed no material changes in crop conditions with both corn and soybean crop ratings holding steady at 76% and 71%, respectively from the previous week. Spring wheat dropped 1% to 69%. But the overall trend is still better crops ratings than what traders have been expecting as well as conditions that are generally better than last year.

 

Precipitation totals were light in the last 24 hours with some rain events hitting W NE and S IN/OH. Intense heat sets up in the Midwest US and northern Plains from Wednesday through Saturday, with high temperatures between 95°F to 105°F and low temperatures near 80°F; temperatures normalize early next week, but warmth returns thereafter. The latest weather models show cooler temps and more precip for the Midwest in the next 3 to 5 day period.

 

Oil prices erased early losses on Tuesday after falling on concerns over a crude and refined fuel glut outweighed an expected cut in U.S. shale production and a probable further draw in U.S. crude inventories. Prices turned higher as an official said oil production at Libya's Sarir field had been suspended due to protests at the Hariga terminal. Output at the Messla field was also at risk if ports shut, the official said.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 18, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 489
July 18, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 250

Crude Oil Starts the Week Lower

Crop conditions to be released today; after the market closes.

Grains traded both side of unchanged overnight but came into the morning break with losses, especially for soybeans.  In outside markets, crude oil started the week lower while equity and bond futures posted modest gains.

 

Weather for the 2nd half of the month looks to be hot and wet which gave the soybean market a reason to head lower. After a cooler than normal first half of July, Corn Belt temperatures will heat up later this week to average 6 to 9 degrees hotter than normal and much of the rest of the nation will also be hot. New GFS maps have the next 16 days with widespread storms east of the Mississippi, limited moisture and some heat across the WCB and N Plains and very limited storminess and excessively hot and dry over the S Plains.

 

NOPA June crush came in at 145.05 mb compared to trade est. of 155.4 and May’s crush of 152.82. The avg. daily rate of crush was 4.84 mb which is the lowest rate of the year, just below the Jan rate of 4.85 mb. Oil stocks were 1.985 bln lbs vs. 1.994 in May. Meal exports were 594 tst vs. 682 in May.

 

Crop conditions will be released later today after the market close. Crops should show a deterioration in SD, NE, MI, OH and IN while rains benefited crops in ND, MN, KS, much of MO, and good portions of IL, IN and WI.

 

Oil prices fell on Monday as traders shrugged off the impact of the attempted coup in Turkey and the market turned its attention to bearish fundamentals, while disruptions to crude exports in Libya lent prices some support. A report by Morgan Stanley raised concerns about the longer-term outlook for oil consumption as demand for petrochemicals rather than fuels such as diesel and gasoline is clouding the outlook for crude demand.

 

In export news, Egypt is in the market for wheat although the US is likely not to garner the business as last week’s deals to Egypt went to Ukraine and Russia.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 15, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Jackie Roembke | Views: 419

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 07/15/2016

On average, national basis was lower this week with corn off 2 cents a bushel and soybeans lost almost 3.5 cents per bushel.

 

Even with strong exports this week, corn river basis was off the most this week, losing 7 ¾ cents per bushel. However, corn barge basis has moved up 10 cents in the last two days which could indicate expectations for continued export strength. Ethanol plant basis was lower as well, off almost 3 cents per bushel.

 

Soybean crush facilities were off almost 4 ½ cents this week, losing all of last week’s gains. Along the river, soybean terminals lost 1 ½ cents. Soybean barge basis was down as well, off 11 cents, potentially following the drop in exports this week. 

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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