August 19, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 246

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 08/19/2016

Grain basis was mostly lower to unchanged to close the week.


On average, corn was down one cent this week. Ethanol plants followed closely losing one and a half cents. With recent decreases in demand for gasoline and large production expectations it seems ethanol buyers are hesitant to pay a premium for corn. Corn along the river and in the gulf saw a drop in basis of one and a quarter cents.


Nationally soybean basis was down slightly, losing half a cent per bushel. Soybean basis along the river was the biggest loser this week losing almost four cents per bushel. Although strong world demand has added support to the futures market that support has yet to be seen in the cash market along the river. Crush facilities have seen signs of support gaining nearly one cent this week. Continued global demand for for soyoil is expected throughout the year.  


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 19, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 248

Beneficial Rains Across the Midwest

Grains were off in overnight trade

Grains were off in overnight trade with soybeans again losing double digits.


Soybeans slid for a second session on Friday as beneficial rain in the U.S. Midwest buoyed expectations of a record U.S. crop this fall. Recent rain in key U.S. growing areas has helped ease concerns about dryness in the Eastern Corn-belt.

Grain millers in Bangladesh are boosting their wheat purchases from Russia and Ukraine as cargoes from key exporter India fade due to a supply squeeze in that country. Bangladesh has booked about 800,000 tonnes of wheat from the Black Sea region for shipment between mid-July and October, up from around 550,000-600,000 tonnes in the same period last year, two trade sources said.


Germany’s Farmers' Association (DBV) said on Friday that the German 2016 winter wheat crop fell 13% on the year to 22.9 MMT. France also is suffering crop losses this year with forecasts there off 17%.


USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report will be released today at 2 pm CDT. Analysts expect cattle on feed as of Aug 1 at 101.4%, placements in July at 100.5% and marketings in July at 99.7%.


Crude oil prices were lower on Friday after gaining a $1.50 a barrel on Thursday to an eight-week high, capping a rally driven by speculation producers could agree to measures to support crude. Nigeria’s oil minister said on Thursday that while a cut in OPEC production is unlikely, there is hope a meeting of producers in Algeria next month could help shore up crude prices.However, analysts and traders warned the rally was overblown, especially since planned talks between the OPEC and other major producers like Russia to rein in on ballooning overproduction were unlikely to lead to a reduced supply overhang.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


August 18, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 266
August 18, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 213

Grains Were Off in Overnight Trade

US Dollar Continues to Erode

Grains were off in overnight trade while crude oil hit the $47 a barrel mark and the US dollar continued to erode.


In overnight news, South Korea's DongAOne issued an invitation to bid seeking a total of 23,200 tonnes of U.S. origin wheat. The tender came after South Korea found no genetically modified wheat in U.S. wheat imports. Earlier in August the discovery of unapproved GMO wheat in shipments from Washington state prompted Japan and South Korea to suspend some U.S. imports. Japan's Ministry of Agriculture bought a total of 87,430 tonnes of food quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed late on Thursday. This was below their usual volume purchased of 120,000 MT.


In Argentina, farmers there are expected to boost corn plantings next season. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projects acreage will jump from 3.6 million hectares to 4.5 million hectares.


Yesterday, weekly ethanol numbers were positive as production hit a record high for this time of year with 1.03 million barrels per day of production and stocks were lower from the previous week.




                             Act-OC      Exp-OC           Act-NC         Exp-NC

Corn                       167.4      250-450            1,042         800-1,100

Soybeans                177.9      100-300            1,597      1,500-1,800

Wheat                                                          489.5            400-600


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 17, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 271
August 17, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 239

Soybeans Lead the Overnight Session

Crude Oil lower with Limited Trade

Grains were higher overnight again led by soybeans while wheat was in the red for much of the night session. In outside markets, the US dollar was fractionally higher after yesterday’s steep sell-off and crude oil was also lower in limited trade.


Wheat continues to struggle with ample domestic and world stockpiles. The US carry-out projections are giving us nearly half of a year’s crop  (47.4%). While international players like France and Germany are having severe crop issues, the rest of the world remains replete in wheat stockpiles. The US dollar has moved 2% lower in the past two weeks which should help bolster US competitiveness in wheat trade.


Soybean prices continue to rally off of their lows from August 2nd, adding nearly 60 cents a bushel in that time frame. Corn, while higher, has found less enthusiasm to the upside only adding 13 cents. Farmers continue to struggle with holding old crop corn inventories to make way for the new crop in the next month. Storage space will surely be at a premium this fall.


Crude oil prices fell in early Asia trade Wednesday, as optimism that major producers would agree to a production freeze agreement ebbed after Iran signaled it has little interest in such a deal. Traders and investors are focusing on the weekly U.S. oil data to be released later today. Estimates by the American Petroleum Institute indicate U.S. crude stocks fell 1 million barrels, but gasoline inventories rose 2.2 million barrels.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 16, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 265
August 16, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 237

Grains Mostly Higher Overnight

US Dollar sharply lower

Grains were mostly higher overnight as soybeans and corn continue to add to recent gains while wheat slipped. In outside markets, the US dollar was sharply lower while crude oil slipped lower from 5-week highs.


On Monday, USDA’s crop progress report showed corn and soybean condition unchanged from last week, with corn pegged at 74% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 72%. Also on Monday, NOPA’s monthly soybean crush report was disappointing showing 143.7 MB of soybeans crushed in July while traders had been looking for 146.7 MB.


In international news, the head of Russia’s grain union expects the wheat crop there to be 69.5 MMT. That would be a lower number than the 72.0 MMT pegged by USDA. Germany's 2016 wheat harvest will fall 8.8% on the year to 24.21 MMT after crops suffered from bad weather this summer with rain and lack of sunshine, the country's association of farm cooperatives said on Tuesday. This was down from the 25.4 MMT the association had previously forecast in July with crops in the meantime suffering from persistent harvest-time showers in major German grain belts.


Oil prices remained near five-week highs on Tuesday, fueled by talk of producers taking action to prop up the market, although some investors cashed in during Asian hours on the 16% rally since early August. Asian equity markets rose to one-year highs, expanding their gains this year to 10 percent, supported by a jump in oil prices and investor expectations of an extended phase of easy monetary policy around the globe.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


August 15, 2016 | Arlette Sambs | Views: 699

Top 5 Reasons Not To Miss Feed & Grain LIVE

Time is running out to sign up for this important conference

Top 5 Reasons Not To Miss Feed & Grain LIVE

We’re only a week away from the start of Feed & Grain LIVE! Aug. 22 is fast approaching and I can’t wait to see our readers face-to-face in Altoona, IA, for a few drinks, great food and top notch education.  

It seems like just yesterday our group sat down and decided to bring a live version of Feed & Grain to our readers. What grew from that meeting is what we believe to be the biggest bang for your buck in the industry. 

If you haven’t signed up and still need convincing, here are the top five reasons to join us at Feed & Grain LIVE.

  1. Education — The Feed, Grain and Management & Safety tracks are comprised of six sessions, and will have useful, practical information that can be taken back to your facility and put into use right away.
  2. Keynote Addresses — We’ve worked hard to bring in keynotes that can give our attendees information about the current and future agricultural economy. Including Rod Paulson, vice president of CHS Processing and Ambassador Darci Vetter, chief agricultural negotiator with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
  3. Facility improvement ideas — We’ve gathered three managers from past issue cover stories to relate their personal experiences. They’ll go through why they built or expanded, how it went and what’s happened in the time since they were on the cover.
  4. Exhibitor hall — 47 exhibitors have signed up for Feed & Grain LIVE! Representatives are there with the latest technology, eager to help you make your facility the best it can be.
  5. Networking — Join your peers for food and drinks during the opening reception, and make connections with other facility managers from across the US.

If you need any more reasons, be sure to check out Feed & Grain LIVE’s website. You can also sign up for the event by following this link here.

I hope to see every one there! If you have any questions email me at or call me directly at 920-397-3828.

Looking forward to meeting you,

Arlette Sambs, Publisher

August 15, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 278

Grains Start the Week Higher

Crude Oil also trading higher

Grains were higher to start the new week, shrugging off Friday’s bumper crop forecasts by USDA. Crude oil was also higher, trading briefly above $45 for the first time since Jul 21.


Friday’s crop report couldn’t have been much more bearish as both corn and soybean production forecasts came in well above analyst expectations, but traders seemed skeptical of 175 yield on US corn as prices ended up rallying on the news and continue to trade higher today. Export prices for US corn has achieved the low price medal in the world market, which should help keep export business brisk.


Saudi Arabia's main state wheat buying agency the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) said on Monday it has purchased 640,000 tonnes of hard wheat in a tender. A tender for for 600,000 tonnes content had closed on Friday seeking wheat with 12.5 percent protein for October and November shipment. The accepted origins in the tender were the European Union, North America, South America and Australia at the sellers' option.


NOPA July crush estimates are out later this morning. The report is expected to show a crush of 146.7 million bushels of soybeans in July. That would have been the biggest crush ever for any July. The previous record of 145.227 was set in July 2015. In June, NOPA processors crushed 145.050 million bushels of soybeans. Crush forecasts ranged from 142.643 million to 150.000 million bushels, with a median of 147.500 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release on Monday at 11 a.m. CDT


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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