March 31, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 312

Today’s Crop Report will Provide the First Guidance on 2017 Supplies

Grains showing modest gains going into today's crop report

Grains were showing modest gains going into today’s big crop report.

 

Yesterday after the close, Brazilian analyst Agroconsult pegged the soy crop there at 113 MMT versus a previous forecast of 111 MMT and well above USDA which was at 108 MMT. Their latest forecast was based on a crop tour which suggested record yields in many growing regions. For corn, they kept their forecast at 95 MMT also above USDA at 91.5 MMT.

 

Rains continue to look plentiful for the Southern Plains, benefitting the HRW crop. Heading into April, weather forecasts point to plentiful rains in the Midwest, with some cold temps possible in the 2nd week of the month. The most likely scenario seems to point to high rainfall throughout most of the region, with the main risk being excessive wetness that could slow the planting pace.

Today’s crop report will provide the first guidance on 2017 supplies as USDA releases its farmer-based survey on planting intentions. Traders expect 3 million fewer acres of corn, 5 million more acres of soybeans and 4 million less acres of wheat. Corn stocks will also be closely followed for indications on feed use for Q2.

 

Watch Thursday’s GrainTV for our perspective on the report

[link to GTV]

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 31, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 274
March 30, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 215
March 30, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 237

Grain Prices Continue their Stalemate

Weekly Export Sales Reported this Morning were Strong for Wheat

One day to go until USDA’s crop reports that are expected to breath new life in the markets. In the meantime, grain prices continue to be in a stalemate with a modest downward bias.

 

USDA reported the sale of 165,000 MT of soybeans to China

 

Overnight China’s corn futures fell for a 2nd day in a row fueled by talk that the state may release grain from its huge stockpiles earlier than planned and at a lower price.

 

Weekend rains in Argentina are expected to slow the corn and soy harvest there with some flooding in the Western areas. Lighter rains are expected there next week, but widespread issues to disrupt the harvest or cause yield losses are not expected. Brazil continues to see a dry spell helping move along soy harvest and timely rains are expected mid next week to aid the 2nd season safrinha crop.

Looking ahead to Friday’s Quarterly Stocks report, all eyes will be on corn stocks which are pegged to be 8.53 billion bushels with a wide range of estimates from 8.2-8.9. Implied corn feed use from this report will be widely watched and based on expectations for stocks, this would put feed use for Quarter 2 at 8% over the previous year’s mark. That would be a sharp jump from Q1 which was up 3.6% for the year. Keep in mind USDA has penciled in an 8.4% increase in feed use for the entire marketing year, so the bar is set high for the remainder of the year.

 

Weekly export sales reported by USDA this morning were strong for wheat and soybeans, but disappointing for corn.

 

Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat - OC

464

250-450

Wheat - NC

164

50-200

Corn - OC

717

900-1,200

Corn - NC

125

100-300

Soybeans-OC

681

350-550

Soybeans-NC

316

100-300


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 29, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 283
March 29, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 226

Trade Action Proves to be Listless Leading up to Friday’s Crop Report

US Dollar and Crude Oil Turns Higher

The recovery in ag grains entered Day 2 with little upside enthusiasm. In outside markets, US dollar crude oil and equities turning higher.

 

The weather forecasts proved true in the S Plains as 1.5 to 3.0 inches of rain rolled across the region yesterday and will finish up today. Another system is expected starting this weekend and extending into next week to bring more rains. Two additional slow-moving low systems are expected to come out of the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains and Midwest. These storm systems should have ample rainfall totals across core winter wheat and spring crop regions of the southern Plains & the Midwest into mid-April. Many of these areas are in need of precipitation, so this active pattern should benefit wheat as well as soils ahead of corn and soybean plantings.

 

The trade action in grains will likely be listless leading up to Friday’s crop report. polls are out on expectations for the March 31 planting report. On average, analysts look for corn acres of 90.9 million vs 94.0 last year and soy plantings of 88.2 as compared to 83.4 in 2016. All wheat acres in the US are expected to slip to 46.1 from 50.2 last year.

Oil World on Tuesday pegged Brazil’s soybean crop at 108.5 MMT of production and at least 61.4 MMT of soybean exports during 2017. These are slightly higher than USDA figures of 108.0 and 61.0, respectively.

 

Data on US crude oil inventories from government forecaster EIA will be widely watched this morning at 9:30 CDT. Analysts expect crude stocks to grow by 1.36 million barrels on the week. Last week, stocks ballooned 4.95 million barrels. API data from yesterday showed a 1.9 million barrel increase in stocks.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 28, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 265
March 28, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 236

Grains Posting a Modest Bounce This Morning

Crop Reports are Reporting on Winter Wheat

Grains were posting a modest bounce higher heading into the morning session. In outside markets, the US Dollar was also trying to recover from Monday’s losses while equities had some minor losses to start the day.

 

Crop reports from various state agencies were reporting on winter wheat ratings. In KS & TX, the wheat crop was rated at 38% and 34% good-to-excellent, respectively for the two states, unchanged from last year.  In OK, the crop ratings dipped to 37% from 40% last week. In North Dakota crop ratings are 79%, Montana 62% and South Dakota at 62%.

 

Overnight, India announced a 10 percent import tax on wheat, reinstating the tariff after a gap of nearly four months that saw large overseas purchases. The government wants to curb imports when Indian farmers are starting to harvest their crops. India, the world's second-biggest wheat producer, lowered the import tax wheat to 10% from 25% last September and scrapped the duty on December 8.

 

South Korea's largest animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 55,000 tonnes of soymeal in a tender for the same volume on Tuesday to be sourced from South America. Algerian agency ONAB purchased about 25,000 tonnes of optional-origin corn in a tender, also likely to come from South America.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 27, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 269
March 27, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 225

US Dollar Slides to Fresh Lows

Grains Were Mostly Weaker in the Overnight

Grains were mostly weaker overnight with wheat and soybeans pushing to the downside while corn was trying to hold on to modest gains. In outside markets, the US dollar slid to fresh lows since November while equity futures were showing heavy losses going into the opening bell.

 

Palm oil hit a 5-month low and Chinese soybeans were down 27 cents a bushel in overnight trade weighing on the US bean complex this morning. The Korea Feed Association purchased around 55,000 MT of soymeal thought likely to be sourced from South America in a deal on Friday. Over the weekend, China lifted its ban on Brazil meat as did Egypt and Chile. The Brazilian government lobbied hard to get the ban removed citing the problems as isolated to a few bad plants.

 

Rains continued to be featured heavily in the Plains, Delta and Southern Midwest over the next 10 days which should help ease drought concerns. A rain system Tues-Thur of this week should hit much of OK/KS to help the winter wheat crop there.

Early polls are out on expectations for the March 31 planting report. On average, analysts look for corn acres of 90.9 million vs 94.0 last year and soy plantings of 88.2 as compared to 83.4 in 2016. All wheat acres in the US are expected to slip to 46.1 from 50.2 last year.

 

Financial markets were facing a wave of selling following Friday’s collapse of the healthcare reform bill. The failure by the new administration is causing a loss in confidence in other potential economic policy initiatives like tax reform and infrastructure spending to become enacted in the future.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

Page 9 of 145 pages ‹ First  < 7 8 9 10 11 >  Last ›

More Articles