March 11, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 184

Grains Higher in the Overnight Following WASDE Report

The grains are trading higher in the overnight following the Tuesday WASDE report and despite the higher U.S dollar.

The dollar index continues to rally in the overnight reaching 99.145 in a rally that started after breaking through 95.90 on March 4th. The grains are also moving higher in the overnight with corn up 3 ¾ cents, soybeans up 5 ¾ cents and wheat up 6 ½ cents this morning. Be aware that the May Corn chart has resistance from the 100 and 50 day moving averages at 3.94 ½ and 3.95 ¾.

 

Yesterday, the USDA revised the corn ending stocks lower by 50 million bushels to 1,777 million bushels. The revision was a result of increased feed and residual use, increased export sales and a decreased ethanol production. Soybean ending stocks were held steady at 385 million bushels despite the strong pace of export sales this year. Analysts were expecting a cut in ending stocks by around 9 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were cut to 691 million bushels down from 692 in February.

 

Global ending stocks for corn fell by 4.36 million metric tons in March as a result of higher U.S. usage and a 2 million metric ton production decline out of South Africa from hot dry weather conditions. Argentina production was increased by .5 MMT, but the rest of Argentina corn and soybean production was left unchanged.

 

Yesterday the Brazilian government representatives and independent truckers met to discuss freight rates, a central issue in the two week long trucker strike and blockade that clogged Brazil’s highways and kept fuel and grain from market. Rain in northern Brazil is likely to cause harvest delays over the next two weeks.

 

This morning the Taiwan Flour Millers association purchased 83,950 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S.  

March 10, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 142

Unexpected WASDE Numbers out Today

Ending Stock numbers helped influence the effects of the rising U.S. dollar. Export sales was not revised today which leads Cody to believe that export sales will fall this week.

March 10, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 110

Supply and Demand Report Day

Analysts are expecting a revision in soybean ending stocks in this round of analyst expectations. With export sales are running well ahead of expectations, will the USDA lower 14/15 carryout?

The grains are trading lower in the overnight session with corn declining 1 ½ cents, soybeans down 3 ¾ cents and wheat trading 5 cents lower going into this morning’s pause. The U.S. dollar is up again this morning increasing over ½ a percent in the overnight session. This morning at 11 AM CST the USDA will release their March Supply and Demand Report.

 

Analysts are not expecting this report to bring a significant surprise to the market. In a Reuter’s poll of 20 analysts the average guess for corn ending stocks was 1.826 billion bushels which would be a slight decline from the 1.827 million bushels in the February WASDE report. The average trade guess for soybean ending stocks was 376 million bushels, down 9 million bushels from February. The average analyst guess expects wheat ending stocks to rise by 7 million bushels to 699 million metric tons.

 

This morning Brazil’s government crop agency cut 14/15 soybean production forecasts to 93.3 million metric tons down from 94.6 million metric tons reported in February. The most recent USDA forecast pegs Brazilian production at 94.5 MMT. Conab also revised expected corn production lower to 78.2 million metric tons from 78.4 in its February report.  

 

Export inspections were average for soybeans this week reporting that 625,713 metric tons were inspected for export, down from 650,667 last week. Corn reported 1,180,686 metric tons, down 8 percent from the previous week but still beating analyst expectations which ranged from 900,000-1,100,000 MT. Wheat recorded 376,210 metric tons inspected for shipment this week which was on the low side of analyst expectations.  

March 09, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 140

Export Inspections Out Today

Corn basis has been strong lately and proved to be on the high side of analyst expectations. However, it may be difficult for corn to rise above current prices. Tune in tomorrow for the March supply and demand report.

March 09, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 154

Traders Eye Tomorrow’s Report

The grains are bouncing this morning after seeing selling pressure last week. Traders will be adjusting positions with the March 10th WASDE report at the center of attention.

In the overnight, the grains traded higher with corn up 4 ½ cents, soybeans up 2 cents and wheat up 7 ¾ cents. The U.S. dollar is trading sideways this morning after a sharp move higher last Friday. The technical environment for corn looks to be negative this week with the 50 day and 100 day moving average crossing over each other this week. Tomorrow morning the USDA will release their March Supply and Demand report at 11 AM CST.

 

Analysts are expecting wheat ending stocks to increase to 699 million bushels from 692 in the February report. Total wheat export sales are in line with meeting current USDA expectations, but the rise in the dollar continues to hurt U.S. wheat competitiveness on the global market.  Corn ending stocks are expected to decline slightly, falling to 1.826 billion bushels from 1.827 billion in February. Soybean ending stocks are expected to shrink down to 376 million bushels from 385 million bushels in February. Soybean export sales have run well ahead of last year’s pace, already booking 97.7 percent of forecast export sales.


In northern Brazil, minor harvesting delays are expected over the next couple weeks as rain is expected to slow fieldwork. Ports in the region have seen a 61 percent jump in ships waiting to be loaded jumping to 82 ships waiting along the coast from 51 last Friday. Last Thursday the Buenos Aires Grains Exchanged warned that flooding in the Northern Pampas region puts them at risk of downgrading production estimates in weeks to come. Last week they held their production estimates steady.     

March 06, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 174
March 06, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 159

Dollar Rallies in the Overnight

The dollar moved sharply higher in the overnight session which is expected to put further pressure on grains during today's trade session.

The grains traded lower in the overnight session with corn down 3 ¼ cents, soybeans down 2 cents and wheat in Chicago up ¼ of a penny. The U.S. Dollar is trading sharply higher to 97.395 after breaking above the previous resistance of 95.85 set on January 26th. The market will be focusing on the March USDA Supply and Demand reports which will be released at 11 AM CST on Tuesday March 10th.

 

Analysts are expecting wheat ending stocks to increase to 699 million bushels from 692 in the February report. Total wheat export sales are running at pace to meet current USDA expectations, but the rise in the dollar continues to hurt U.S. wheat competitiveness on the global market.  Corn ending stocks are expected to decline slightly falling to 1.826 billion bushels from 1.827 billion in February, and Soybean ending stocks are expected to shrink down to 376 million bushels from 385 million bushels in February. Soybean sales have run well ahead of last year’s pace, already booking 97.7 percent of forecast export sales.

 

The Buenos Aires Grains exchange warned yesterday that the floods in the northern Pampas region could cause them to reduce their soybean production estimate which currently sits at 57 million metric tons. In the February WASDE supply and demand estimates, the USDA’s pegged Argentina soybean production at 56 million metric tons. Rains are expected in the 6-10 day forecast with most precipitation focused over the central and northwestern parts of Argentina.

March 05, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 160

Strong Dollar Pressuring Wheat?

U.S. Wheat struggles to remain competitive in the global market. Cody discusses what this means moving forward and gives a brief on the current export sales pace for corn and soybean.

March 05, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 126

Export sales see weekly improvement

Export sales came in within analyst expectations. However, soybean sales continue to be well ahead of pace to meet the USDA expectations. Will the USDA revise export sales estimates in the March 10th WASDE report?

In the overnight session the grains are mixed with corn up ¼ of a cent, soybeans are up 3 ½ cents and wheat is trading down ¾ of a cent. This morning it was announced that 108,000 metric tons of sorghum was sold to unknown destinations for 15/16 marketing year. The US dollar index is slightly higher in the overnight as well as the Euro fell to its lowest level in nearly 11 years. Traders are watching the European Central Bank for an announcement on details of its bond buying program.

 

The Thursday morning export sales report showed corn, soybeans and wheat all improved bookings over last week. Corn booked 828,100 metric tons this week which was up 16 percent from last week and within analyst expectations. Soybeans booked 499,500 metric tons of sales this week increasing 9 percent from the previous week. Soybean expectations ranged from 300,000-500,000 metric tons. Wheat sales increased 43 percent over last week, booking 469,600 metric tons compared to expectations which ranged from 350,000-550,000 metric tons.

 

Ethanol production dropped again this week, declining 16,000 barrels per day to 931,000 barrels per day. Despite the decline in production we are still well ahead of the pace of production seen last year. Ethanol stocks declined as well, falling 66,000 barrels to 21.53 million barrels. Traders will be watching the next WASDE report on March 10th to see if the USDA will increase their corn used for ethanol line item to reflect the strong pace we have seen in the first half of the marketing year.

 

China’s finance Ministry stated that it will increase spending by 33 percent year over year on stockpiling grains, edible oils and other materials in 2015. The finance ministry is expecting to spend 154.6 billion yuan which is equivalent to 24.66 billion U.S. Dollars.      

March 04, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 186

Soybeans Lose Traction

Tune in for a report on the U.S. Dollar, Brazilian Real, and a discussion of what drove soybeans lower.

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Weekly Cash Comments

March 27, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills

Corn grain basis was unchanged for the week, while soybeans posted a 2-cent advance.

 

In corn, basis levels were up one-cent a bushel at the Gulf export market, but river terminals were on average unchanged for the week. 

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