June 10, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 197

WASDE Expectations

Traders will be eyeing the June WASDE report scheduled to be released at 11 AM CST

WASDE Expectations

In the overnight session the grains traded higher with soybeans up 4 1/2 cents, wheat up 2 1/2 cents and corn unchanged this morning. The U.S. dollar is helping grains this morning, trading down nearly 1/2 a percent. Crude oil is trading higher by $1.28 this morning after the EIA raised its 2015 oil demand growth forecast.

 

Traders will be watching the June WASDE report which is scheduled for release out at 11 AM CST today. According to a Reuters poll of Analysts the average guess for old crop corn endings stocks is 1.859 billion bushels up from 1.851 billion bushels last month. Analysts are also expecting wheat ending stocks to rise to 712 million bushels which would be up 3 million bushels from May. Old crop Soybean ending stocks are expected to fall by 11 MBU to 339 million bushels.


For new crop, analysts are expecting both corn and wheat ending stocks to rise while soybean ending stocks decline from the May report. The average guess for new crop corn ending stocks is 1.779 billion bushels up from 1.746 billion bushels in May. Wheat ending stocks are also expected to rise, with expectations of 798 million bushels from 793 last month. Soybean ending stocks are expected to decline this month with the average trade guess looking for 487 million bushel carryout compared to 500 million bushels in May. 

 

This morning the Taiwan Flour Millers association has issued a tender to purchase 97,420 of wheat from either the U.S or Europe.  Israeli private buyers purchased an unknown amount of optional origin corn and feed wheat in a tender for 115,000 metric tons of corn and 65,000 metric tons of wheat this morning. The USDA announced a reportable sale of 128,000 metric tons of primarily new crop soybeans to unknown destinations this morning. 

June 09, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 209

Favorable Weather Outlook

Cody discusses positive news for the grains even as the northern U.S. warms. WASDE expectations are also discussed.

June 09, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 156

Grains mixed as trader’s eye USDA report on Wednesday

The crop progress report showed corn planting is complete with little change in corn conditions in the good-to-excellent ratings.

In the overnight session corn is down 2 1/2 cents, soybeans is up 1 3/4 cents and wheat is trading lower by 3 3/4 cents. This morning the U.S. dollar is trading about .20 percent higher with crude oil up nearly a dollar.

 

The crop progress report was released out yesterday afternoon showing that corn planting was complete and 91 percent of the crop has emerged. Crop conditions improved slightly with the excellent category rising to 13 percent from 12 percent last week. Corn rated good-to-excellent was unchanged on the week at 74 percent which met expectations.

 

Soybeans were 79 percent planted which is just 2 percentage points behind the four year average which hovers at 81 planted during this time. Soybean condition was a little bit behind the analyst expectations with 69 percent of the crop rated good-to-excellent. Last year during this time the crop was rated at 74 percent good-to-excellent.    

 

Export inspections was released yesterday which showed that 302,725 metric tons of wheat was inspected for export which was within analysts’ expectations. Corn inspections were a bit on the light side at 740,543 metric tons, missing expectations which ranged between 775,000 and 975,000 metric tons. Soybean inspections outperformed analyst expectations with 216,590 metric tons inspected for export.  

June 08, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 269
June 08, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 174

Markets Continue Higher Early Monday

The grain markets are adding to last week’s gains early Monday morning as traders eye the WASDE report scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

Markets Continue Higher Early Monday

In the overnight session, the grains traded higher with corn up 2 3/4 cents, soybeans up 6 cents and wheat up 6 3/4 cents. The U.S. dollar is trading lower by nearly 1/2 a percent and crude oil is down 33 cents. Greece expressed interest toward negotiating the latest Austerity proposal from lenders through the remainder of June which is an improvement from the outright rejection of the proposal which occurred last week. This is a slight improvement in the tone and helped lift the Euro early Monday morning.


Scab has emerged in Kansas, the largest producer of winter wheat in the U.S. after wet weather late in the growing season provided ideal conditions for the fungus to grow. The moist conditions have traders concerned about winter wheat crop quality.


Russia’s Sovecon announced that it has upgraded its Russian grain production forecast to 99 million metric tons from 94 million metric tons in its previous forecast.  


Traders will be watching the June WASDE report which is scheduled for release out at 11 AM CST on Wednesday. According to a Reuters poll of Analysts the average guess for old crop corn endings stocks is 1.859 billion bushels up from 1.851 billion bushels last month. Analysts are also expecting wheat ending stocks to rise to 712 million bushels which would be up 3 million bushels from May. Old crop Soybean ending stocks are expected to fall by 11 MBU to 339 million bushels.


For new crop, analysts are expecting both corn and wheat ending stocks to rise while soybean ending stocks decline from the May report. The average guess for new crop corn ending stocks is 1.779 billion bushels up from 1.746 billion bushels in May. Wheat ending stocks are also expected to rise, with expectations of 798 million bushels from 793 last month. Soybean ending stocks are expected to decline this month with the average trade guess looking for 487 million bushel carryout compared to 500 million bushels in May. 

June 05, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 242
June 05, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 262

Weekly Cash Comments

Cash commentary for week ending June 05

It was a mixed week in the cash grain markets with corn posting a modest two-tenths of a cent decline while soybean spot basis was up 2 cents on the week.

 

In corn, there was little incentive for corn buyers to be aggressive on basis as a reversal in futures prices helped push more supplies into the pipeline. At the Gulf, export basis was off 3 cents a bushel and river terminals followed suit also posting a 3-cent decline for the week. The only bright spot was ethanol plants which held their ground on basis and ended the week mostly unchanged.

 

For soybeans, it was a different story this week with basis gains of 2-cents a bushel on average across the US. Most of the stimulus was created from soy crushing plants which posted a nearly 4-cent gain on the week. Plants on the Eastern Seaboard had strong gains of 5 to 15 cents a bushel as local supplies are tapped out and processors need to find supplies from Ohio and Indiana. In exports, basis at the Gulf was off 2 cents a bushel and river terminals let basis drop down by 1-cent a bushel. 

June 05, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 239

US Dollar Higher in the Overnight

The U.S. dollar traded higher in the overnight by over a percent this morning which will likely put pressure on the grains after a week of rising prices.

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with corn up 1/4 of a cent, soybeans down 1/2 of a cent and wheat is down 2 3/4 cents. The U.S dollar is trading nearly 1 percent higher this morning after printing lows of 94.67 in yesterday’s session and rallying back to 95.55 percent to close positive on the day. The U.S dollar is trading very close to its 100 day moving average at 96.468.

 

The wheat market has traded sharply higher this week. After opening at $4.78 on Monday, July Chicago Wheat is now trading at $5.21 with the possibility of trading over resistance near 5.30 1/4 which is set from the previous high back on May 18th. Concerns about hot dry weather in India, the impact of the heavy rains in Oklahoma and Texas last week and dry conditions throughout Europe and parts of Russia has triggered some short covering, despite ample global ending stocks. Even with the rally in futures this week, wheat still remains firmly in its downtrend.

 

On Wednesday the 10th the USDA will release its June USDA Supply and Demand report. According to a poll of Reuters analysts old crop wheat ending stocks are expected at 712 million bushels a slight increase from last month. Old crop corn ending stocks are expected to show 1.859 billion bushels up eight million bushels from the May report and soybean ending stocks are expected at 339 million bushels down from 350 million last month. Soybean export sales continue to run hot in the second half of the marketing year when sales usually taper to nearly nothing as buyers switch over to South America.  ​

June 04, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 253
June 04, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 159

Soybean Sales Mixed

Export sales were mixed this morning with new crop soybean showing the best performance this week.

In the overnight session corn traded lower by 1 1/2 cents, soybeans pushed 2 1/2 cents higher and wheat in Chicago fell by 2 1/4 cents. The U.S dollar is continuing lower today after two days of selling and crude oil is down 39 cents.

 

This week’s export sales did little to impress with old crop corn and soybeans below expectations and wheat recording cancellations of 20,400 metric tons. New crop sales were mixed with corn showing export cancellations of 54,800 metric tons, soybeans beating analyst expectations by booking 347,000 metric tons and wheat recording sales of 364,000 metric tons which was within analyst expectations. 

 

Yesterday Informa trimmed their Winter Wheat forecast to 1.481 billion bushels from 1.486 billion bushels in their previous forecast. Despite cutting wheat production, Informa raised corn and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina. In Brazil and Argentina soybean production was revised 1 million metric tons higher to 95.5 MMT and 60 MMT respectively. Argentina corn was also increased by 1 million metric tons to 60 MMT. This is another example of the South American crop putting more pressure on U.S. prices as good growing conditions keep analysts revising production higher.  

 

Ethanol production increased this week by 3,000 barrels per day to 972,000 bpd. This is the third straight week of firm production registering well over last year’s production levels and the four year average. Ethanol stocks declined again this week, falling 29,000 barrels to 20.07 million barrels. Cumulative yearly production is running 4.8 percent ahead of last year’s levels.

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