September 01, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 248
September 01, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 237

Grains In Positive Territory This Morning

...but continue to struggle with bearish fundamentals

Grains were in positive territory to start the day but continue to struggle with bearish fundamentals.

 

This morning’s USDA export sales report was a mixed bag and will likely do little to stem the wave of selling. New-crop corn sales were disappointing coming in at only 647,000 MT, below expectations ranging from 700-1,100,000 MT. Wheat sales were also sub par at only 279,000 off of expectations ranging from 300-600,000 MT.

 

In overnight news, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture bought a total of 144,385 tonnes of food quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed late on Thursday.

 

After the close today, USDA will report monthly soybean crushings. That report is expected to show 4.596 million short tons, or 153.2 million bushels, of soybeans were processed in July. The estimates ranged from 152.5 million to 154.2 million bushels. The median forecast was 153.1 million bushels.

 

Gains in Europe helped pull world shares out their longest losing streak of the year on Thursday, as oil prices ticked up before key U.S. jobs data. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report remains this week's market focus, after Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said last week the jobs data will be a factor in the timing of central bank interest rate hikes.


 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

                             OC-Act      OC-Exp            NC-Act       NC-Exp

Corn                         214      -100-150               647       700-1,100

Soybeans                  107      -150-200            1,476     1,100-1,600

Wheat                                                             279         300-600

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 31, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 222
August 31, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 175

Soybeans Continue their Slide

US Dollar continues it's recovery

Soybeans slid for a seventh consecutive session to trade close to last session's four-week low as the U.S. crop matures in ideal growing conditions. Corn and wheat were mixed in directionless trade. In outside markets, the US dollar continued its recovery reaching its highest mark in 3 weeks.

 

This morning the USDA released new export deals with 187,000 MT of soybeans to China, 275,000 MT of corn to Mexico, and as rare wheat deal for HRW of 138,000 MT to unknown destinations.

 

Egypt's state grains buyer GASC received very low participation by trading companies in an international tender to purchase wheat on Wednesday as changing quality rules about the ergot fungus caused uncertainty. Only one trading company was said to have participated in the tender on Wednesday. GASC had earlier on Wednesday said it would only accept wheat with a zero content level of the controversial fungus ergot, which traders say is almost impossible to achieve in wheat in big volumes.

 

Basis levels especially for spot beans are starting to weaken as prices between old- and new-crop delivery begin to merge. With first notice day in Sep corn, many buyers rolled bids to Dec and kept basis levels fairly steady on the roll, although there is some delivery pressure as 440 corn contracts were delivered on for first notice day.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 200
August 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 173

Corn and Soybeans Mixed Overnight

Crude Oil and US Dollar were Higher

Grains were mixed overnight with corn and soybeans drifting lower while wheat managed to find its way into positive territory. Outside markets saw crude oil and the US dollar higher.

 

After the close Monday, USDA’s crop progress report showed the corn condition held steady at 75% good-to-excellent, while the soybean crop gained 1% going to 73% good-to-excellent. The corn crop is 9% mature versus the 5-year average of 11%.

 

This morning, USDA announced a sale of 126,000 MT of soybeans. On Monday, they announced a deal for 393,000 MT of soybeans.

 

Farm Futures magazine released the results of a farmer survey that showed growers are more likely to plant soybeans next year versus wheat and corn. Growers will plant 84.4 million acres of soybeans next spring, up from 83.7 million in 2016, and 93.1 million acres of corn, down from 94.1 million this year, according to the survey. Low prices will prompt farmers to slash wheat area for a fourth straight season to 49.1 million acres, which would be the lowest U.S. all-wheat acreage since 1970, according to the online survey of 1,225 farmers conducted in late July and early August.

 

Oil futures fell Monday on growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as next month and that a group of major crude producers may fail to come up with a pact to stabilize output.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 29, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 226
August 29, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 189

Grains Continue to Press Lower

Crude Oil also Slid to Start the Week

Grains continued to press to lower prices to start the week. In outside markets, crude oil also slid while the US dollar pushed higher.

 

After the close Friday, Pro Farmer released their US crop estimates pegging the US corn yield at 170.2. That is well below USDA’s forecast of 175.1 but still record large. For soybeans, Pro Farmer came in at a yield of 49.3, up from USDA’s forecast of 48.9.

 

This morning, USDA announced a sale of 393,000 MT of soybeans. In other export news, South Korea's Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCOPIA) purchased about 55,000 MT of corn, which can be sourced from optional origins. Also, Jordan is tendering for 100,000 MT of hard milling wheat. Egypt reinstated on Sunday a controversial ban on wheat shipments containing even the slightest amount of a common grain fungus, baffling traders who had returned to the Egyptian market just last month when the ban was lifted.

 

On Friday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen in a speech delivered at a conference suggested the Fed will likely raise interest rates in the near future as the US economy continues to improve. That sent the US dollar higher on Friday and continues to support it this morning.
 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 457
August 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 198

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 08/26/2016

The cash markets remained relatively stable this week posing slight gains of an average of 1 cent per bushel.

 

This week Spanish energy firm Abengoa sold 5 of its Ethanol plants to Green Plains Inc. of Omaha, NE. There have not been many indications how this will affect ethanol basis in the short term. Ethanol plants regained last week’s losses gaining 1.5 cents. Corn basis along the river saw marginal gains of 1 cent per bushel. Nationally however, corn basis was down almost half a cent per bushel. This is the third week in a row corn basis has went down.

 

Soybeans have been a different story. Soybean demand remains high and analysts expect strong demand to continue despite the lower prices and strong yield potential. Basis at river terminals is most indicative of the strong demand and saw gains of 7.5 cents per bushel. Crush facilities saw basis gains as well, gaining almost 1 cent. Nationally soybeans gained 1.5 cents per bushel.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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