March 19, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 331

Rains in Argentina Over the Weekend

Grains Down This Morning

Headlines

Wheat sharply lower after KS precipitation

Corn lower after rains fall in Argentina  

EXPORTERS SELL 206,000 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO JAPAN DURING THE 2018/2019 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

EXPORTERS SELL 115,000 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR

 

KC Wheat Region

A narrow band of rain fell from northwestern Kansas toward south central Kansas late this weekend bringing between .5 and 1 inch of precipitation.   

Rain and snow is still falling in Western Kansas.

The latest weather forecast shows chances of additional weather systems into the plains in late March and early April.  

 

Argentina

Rains fell in Argentina over the weekend, but topsoil moisture improvements were limited to a small region from southern Cordoba to Northern Buenos Aires.

Other areas throughout the Pampas and Northern Argentina were left relatively dry. Some area received light rain, but was unable to bring meaningful increases to the topsoil moisture.

There is a chance for more rains this weekend but confidence remains low that it will produce a drought reducing rain event.

Brazil

AgRural reported that 58 percent of soybeans have been harvested in Brazil which is ahead of the five year average (55% harvested) but behind last year (62% harvested).

AgRural reported that 92 percent of second crop corn has been planted which is above the five year average (90% planted), but behind last years planting pace (96% planted).

 

Commitments of Traders- Week ending March 13th

Managed money (MM) increased their net long position in Corn by 69,529 to 233,063.

MM increased their net long soybean position by 24,489 to 208,200.  

MM increased their net short SRW wheat position to -35,584 from -32,531.

MM increased their net long KC wheat position to 28,946 from 20,759.

MM increased their net long HRS position to 1,240 from 1,187.  

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 16, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 249

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 03/16/2018

US average corn and soybean basis was mostly unchanged this week, but there were big differences across the country depending on proximity to the rivers.

 

For corn, the river markets were hit hard with 8-cent losses on average tied to a dime discount at the Gulf export market.  Barge rates did manage to move lower this week as flooding concerns waned and barge movement started to improve. For beans the draw-down in basis was less noticeable with river terminals down 4 cents on average and the Gulf down 8 cents.

End users of grain were mostly steady this week. However, there were modest improvements in the Central and Northern Plains. Corn Plants in SD improved basis on average by 2 cents a bushel.

 

With corn futures backing down this week we would expected to see basis levels start to firm. End buyer demand across livestock, exports and processing is rock solid so with spring fieldwork around the corner the next few weeks could be important to keep pipelines full.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 16, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 231

Corn Heading Lower for a Third Straight Session

NOPA Crush Beats Expectations

Highlights

NOPA Crush beats expectations

Corn export sales at record pace

Rosario Grains Exchange lowers production est again

EXPORTERS SELL 20,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEAN OIL FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

Argentina

Weather forecast unchanged with rain expected this weekend.  

Rosario Grains Exchange lowered its Argentina corn and soybean production estimates.  

Soybean production estimate revised to 40 MMT from 46.5 MMT. (Mar USDA @ 47 MMT)

Corn production estimate revised to 32 MMT from 35 MMT. (Mar USDA @ 36 MMT)

 

Brazil

Weather forecast unchanged with scattered showers causing some fieldwork delays until next Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul which has been dry is expected to get precipitation over the weekend and into Tuesday.

 

NOPA Crush Beats Estimates

NOPA February crush beat expectations on Thursday by reporting that members processed 153.719 million bushels of soybeans in February compared to analyst estimates of 149.443 million bushels.

This is the largest February crush on record with the next closest February in 2010 when 148.351 million bushels were crushed.

Large February crush was driven by unexpectedly strong processing margins triggered by drought in Argentina.    

Soyoil stocks increased to 1.856 billion pounds compared to analysts estimates of 1.766 bln lbs.   

 

Weekly Export Sales

The latest export sales report on Thursday showed the strongest weekly corn sales for a single marketing year in 23 years.

U.S corn export sales are expected to stay strong into the summer as drought in Argentina limits competition.

Brazil corn exports don’t typically come on line until August when second crop corn is harvested. JBS recently purchased Argentina corn to import into Brazil.  

Argentina corn offers are currently $3.50 per metric ton over the U.S. Gulf and Ukraine corn is offered $17.50 per ton higher.  
 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 15, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 193

Corn Export Sales Were Huge This Week

Grains Up in the Overnight Session

Highlights

NOPA Crush numbers scheduled for release at 11 CST

Marketing year high for corn export sales!

Ethanol production declines; while stocks jump

Argentina

Yesterday’s rains fell in NE Santa Fe and Corrientes.  

Weekend rains are expected to cover 60 percent of crop producing regions.

Precipitation is expected to have limited impact on yield recovery given the late stages of development.

Brazil

More showers today across Brazil are expected to slow fieldwork through next Wednesday.

Rains expected in Brazil’s far southern region of Rio Grande Do Sul today providing some much needed moisture to that area.

NOPA Crush Expectations

NOPA February crush is expected to show that 149.443 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in February.

Analysts expect soyoil stocks to be reported at 1.766 bln lbs.   

Ethanol Production

Weekly ethanol output declined 32,000 barrels per day to 1.03 million bpd and was 1.9 percent below this week last year.

The surprise increase in corn used for Ethanol in the March WASDE report means that weekly production will have to run 3.2 percent ahead of last year from now until the end of August.

Weekly ethanol stocks increased to 24.28 million barrels from 23.144 mln bbls last week.

Ethanol stocks are now 6.7 percent above LY during this time.

Weekly Export Sales

Wheat sales fell 58 percent from LW and is down 47 percent below the four week average.

Corn export sales were huge this week, recording a marketing year high of 2.5 million metric tons sold.

Major buyers included 838,000 MT to Japan, 388,600 MT to Taiwan, 206,800 to S. Korea and 197,900 to Mexico.  

Soybean sales were down 49 percent from last week but still managed to beat analyst expectations.

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

162

250-500

Corn

2,505

1,300-1,700

Soybeans

1,269

800-1,200


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 14, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 153

Weekend Rains to Favor E Argentina

Wheat Down in the Overnight Session

Highlights

CME increases corn and soybean margins

 

Argentina

Two precipitation events are expected in Argentina through Monday.

Strongest precipitation is expected to occur in the northeast.

The precip events have potential to be widespread and provide some meaningful moisture to Buenos Aires, southern Entre Rios and Southern Santa Fe.    

Argentine President announced that there will be some debt relief for farmers who have endured this years fierce drought.  

 

Brazil

More showers today across Brazil are expected to slow fieldwork.

FC Stone forecast 17/18 cotton area to increase to 1.183 million hectares. The company expects some Mato Grosso farmers to switch to cotton from corn due to favorable return prospects

 

Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

Latest GFS weather model suggested increased precipitation between March 23rd and March 25th in the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas.

Although the latest run of the weather model suggests a possibility of rain, weather forecasters say there is still “low confidence” this event will bring meaningful moisture into the areas of extreme drought.   

 

CME Raises Margin Requirements

CME raises margin requirements for corn to $600 per contract from $550. Soybean margins were increased to $1,400 per contract from $1,300 per contract.

NOPA Report Expectations

NOPA crush report scheduled for March 15th. Analysts are expecting to see total February crush to be reported at 149.443 million bushels.

Analysts are expecting soy oil stocks to be reported at 1.766 billion pounds.

 

FranceAgriMer Cuts SRW Stocks and Exports

The organization cut their estimates for French 17/18 SRW wheat export estimates to 8.5 MMT from 9 MMT.

French SRW wheat ending stocks were revised to 3.2 MMT from 3.25 MMT.

French 17/18 corn ending stocks were also revised lower to 2.7 MMT from 2.8 MMT in last months estimates.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 08, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 436

March WASDE Report Due Out Today

Grains Pare Overnight Losses

Highlights

Grains pare overnight losses after strong export sales.

March WASDE report due out at 11 AM CST

Exporters sell 110,000 metric tons of Corn for delivery to Japan during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

 

Argentina Weather

Showers are expected over the weekend, but meaningful moisture will be localized and in Northern Argentina.

Latest weather model showed an increase of precipitation is expected in Buenos Aires, central and the northeastern growing region next Thursday through Friday.

 

Ethanol

Ethanol Production increased to 1.057 million barrels per day from 1.044 MBPD.

Weekly production was 3.4% over LY during same week.

The increase in production over the last few weeks brings total production 2.5 percent over LY.  

U.S. ending stocks increased to 972 million gallons from 965 million gallons LW.

 

 

Export Sales

Corn and soybeans beat export sales expectations by a large margin.

Corn sales increased 8 percent compared to last week on strong buying from Japan, Mexico, Taiwan and Vietnam.

China accounted for 1.2 MMT of soybean sales this week.   

  Actual Estimated
Corn 1,857 1,000-1,500
Soybeans 2,509 900-1,400
Wheat 391 200-500

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 07, 2018 | Coach’s Corner | Greg Martinelli | Views: 1541

Your Sales Team Needs Some R&R

That’s Rejection & Resilience – not Rest & Relaxation

Your Sales Team Needs Some R&R

Rejection and Resilience go hand in hand in every salesperson’s career. We know we won’t sell 100% of our prospects. Early in sales training we’re taught by well meaning instructors that the prospect is rejecting our offer or our products and not us. Not always true. Since people buy from people, it’s easy to see that sometimes, we are rejected because the prospect just doesn’t like us. Resilience is the tool to pull out of your toolbox when this happens. You have a choice, cut your losses and move on to another prospect or persist through the rejection to see if the sale can be salvaged. Knowing when to do either of those choices is the Art of the Sale. Short of getting kicked out of the prospect’s place of business, there is no definitive line that tells you it’s time to persist or time to move on. It’s a gut feeling and you will get better over time. 

Special note for the experienced sales person: since you have an established territory with customers that love you, the trap you can fall into is to cut and run on prospects too soon. Whether it’s ego or lack of desire to chase prospects, you will need to pay special attention at re-energizing your Resilience. Try not to forget those early years when you did what it took to build your territory.

Key Points

Keep Digging

The buzzword in sales training is sell on “value." Find out what the customer values and then position your products to that value. If they won’t buy from you, then you haven’t found it. Keep asking questions. Keep building trust. One of the easiest ways to determine what a prospect values is to look at what they currently buy. You know your competitors well enough to determine why prospects buy from them. If not, ask the prospect. Start with the positive before you ask about the negative. For example, “What do you like about XYZ’s products?” or “How did you decide to use their products?” After some discussion, then you can start asking about what they don’t like or what their current supplier lacks.

Timing

We are in a very seasonal business and need to be aware of our prospect’s schedule.  Salespeople often get themselves in trouble with a prospect by trying to go too fast or too slow. Going too fast occurs when the salesperson is unaware of his sales style or is trying to meet an internal deadline. For example, your company has set the order deadline for your new product at the end of the month. It’s two days before the end of the month and you are beating down the doors of your prospects trying to beat the deadline. Unfortunately, the prospect doesn’t care about your deadline. 

Going too slow is often a bigger problem. Salespeople are so worried about being too pushy, they actual go too slow. The prospect loses interest, time goes by and the confused prospect ends up deciding against your products.

To solve this, keep checking with your prospect at each call on timing. Then stay accountable to the dates they give you.

Special Case #1: “I did business with your company in the past and I wasn’t happy.”

Dig in and find out what happened. Is it still an issue? Is it something recent enough that you need to "make it right." I ran into prospects that had all the paperwork they needed to return products or get a credit back on their account. They were unhappy with our company. Instead of calling us and fixing the problem, they simply quit buying from us. These are great opportunities to show them how you operate by fixing the problem. Then go into the sales process with them.

Special Case #2: “I did business with YOU in the past and wasn’t happy.”

This situation is a little more difficult as you have first hand experience with this prospect. However, they gave you an appointment to come back and call on them. That’s a good sign. Maybe they left you in anger or haste and now want to come back and be a customer again. For whatever reason, they want to return to you. One critical factor in this situation is to allow the prospect to save face. Understand their desire to come back, but do not rub it in that you were right or they should have stayed with you. They are coming back and that’s all that matters. Let the past stay in the past.

Sales R & R will make the difference in your success. We will all meet Resistance at some point. Currently in agribusiness, we are experiencing tough times for farmers, which means tough times for us. Resistance to spend money on our products is high, which means you need to master the other R – Resilience.

March 05, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 684

C and S Plains Wheat Not Favored for Rain in Next Two Weeks

March Soybeans and Wheat Up in the Overnight

Highlights

  • Argentina weather forecast remains dry
  • Kansas to remain dry this week
  • Brazil fieldwork behind LY pace  

 

Argentina

  • Weather forecast shows continued dryness over the next week.
  • Chances of precipitation at the end of next week, but weather models do not align and confidence in event remains low.
  • Everyday without precipitation reduces production.

 

Brazil

  • Weather forecast mostly unchanged.  
  • Persistent rains in northern Brazil are expected to continue to slow fieldwork.

 

Brazil Fieldwork Progress

  • Ag Rural estimates 35 percent of soybean area has been harvested compared to 47 percent LY.
  • Ag Rural estimates that 63 percent of second corn area has been planted behind 75 percent LY.
  • Ag Rural estimates 24 percent of first corn area in the center south region of Brazil has been harvested compared to 29 percent LY.  

 

Southern Plains Weather

  • The major Kansas Wheat producing region has remained bone dry over the weekend with no measurable rain recorded in Kansas, Oklahoma and the panhandle of Texas.
  • Weather is expected to remain dry over the central plains this week as temperatures increase.
  • Chances of precipitation in eastern half of Kansas in the beginning of next week.  

 

Latest South America Production Forecasts Informa

  • Argentina 17/18 soybean production forecast lowered to 44 MMT from 51 MMT.
  • Argentina 17/18 corn production forecast lowered to 33.5 MMT from 37 MMT.
  • Brazil 17/18 soybean production forecast lifted to 114 MMT from 112.5 MMT.
  • Brazil 17/18 corn production forecast lifted to 89 MMT from 88 MMT

 

Commitments of Traders- Managed Money

  • For the week ending Feb 27th, Managed Money increased their net long position in corn by 40,446 contracts to 59,120.
  • The net long MM soybean position increased by 48,270 to 147,380 contracts.
  • The net short MM position in Chicago wheat was reduced by 6,408 to -60,632.
  • The net long KCBT wheat position was reduced by 2,133 contracts to 11,008.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 02, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 865

US Trade Restrictions in the Spotlight

Soybeans Up in the Overnight Session

Market Action

 

  • Beans test new highs for the move, old-crop corn was flat but Dec backs off
  • US Trade restrictions in the spotlight
  • Argentina Soy crop pegged at 44 MMT down from 47 MMT previously
  • Trump on both sides of RFS and Big Oil fight?
  • EXPORTERS SELL 319,000 MT OF 2017/18 SOYBEANS
  • EXPORTERS SELL 20,000 MT OF SOYBEAN OIL FOR 2017/2018

 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

 

US Trade

  • Trump said on Thursday he would impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on imported aluminum next week, in a move intended to protect U.S. industry. But, critics said it would fail to boost jobs and risked stoking a trade war with China.
  • “Signs of growing tensions between the United States and China may be a good opportunity for Brazil given our prowess to produce grains like soy and corn,” said Carlos Favaro, Mato Grosso Vice Governor.
  • China needs US Beans, so a black swan like event trade war with China on beans seems unlikely, but worth paying attention to. Any retaliation on US soybeans is a game changer.

 

Argentina

 

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange slashed the country’s soy crop on Thursday to 44 MMT vs 47 last week, but maintained corn at 37 MMT.
  • Weather forecasts are still dry. However, the GFS US weather model keeps trying to introduce better rain chances in the 10-14 day period. The GFS calls for .25-1.25” which is not the soaking rain that is needed, but would help stabilize crops.
  • Upside still exists for old-crop beans as crop size continues to deteriorate.

 

 

RFS vs Big Oil

 

  • Yesterday’s White House meeting between Big Oil and Ethanol execs appears to be a compromise solution that would advance E-15 blends ‘somehow’ and
  • cap RIN prices.
  • Raising the blend to E-15 but capping the RINs is a difficult policy perspective to comprehend. You can’t seem to enforce blend behavior by refiners if you create a price limit on RINs, so as it stands the policy announcement has the trade confused.
  • Trump wants policy initiatives to be formalized by next week. So stay tuned, but on the surface more blend potential is bullish corn.

  •  

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 01, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 625

Brazil is Expected to Export 68 Million Tonnes of Soybeans in 2018

Grains Mixed in the Overnight Session

Market Action

  • Grains mixed in the overnight session.
  • Strong buying in the grain complex could have been amplified by funds “window dressing” at the end of the month.
  • Exporters sell 120,000 MT of Soybeans for delivery to China of which 60,000 MT is for 2017/2018 marketing year delivery, 60,000 MT for 2018/2019 delivery. -USDA
  • Exporters sell 126,000 MT of Soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations of which 63,000 MT is for 2017/2018 delivery, 63,000 MT is for 2018/2019 delivery. -USDA

Argentina

  • Weather forecast expects dryness to remain dominant into next week for major production regions. Some light precipitation possible starting in the south and moving north Sunday into Monday.
  • Recent model suggests increased rainfall starting next Thursday  and continuing into the following Monday in southern and central Argentina.

Brazil

  • Unchanged forecast; frequent showers are expected to slow fieldwork.
  • Tues and Wed will provide opportunities for fieldwork in southern Brazil.
  • Conditions are dry in southern Rio Grande do Sul.   

 

RFS Meeting at White House Today 12 CST

  • Pres. Trump called another meeting at White House for today to discuss RFS.
  • Meeting includes representatives from oil and corn industries along with key Senators.
  • Discussion may include options such as exports to count as biofuel credits and for E15 to be sold year-round.  

Ethanol

  • Ethanol production slipped to 1.044 million barrels per day from 1.068 MBPD LW.
  • Ethanol production was above LY same week production by 1 percent.
  • Jan, Feb ethanol production has only run .5 percent ahead of LY pace which is a decline from the Sep-Dec period that produced 4.3 percent more ethanol than the same period LY.
  • Ethanol stocks increased to 965 million gallons from 956 million gallons LW.
  • Ethanol stocks are now below LY levels for the first time this marketing year, however still near record highs.  

Export Sales

  • Corn and soybean export sales strongly beat analyst expectations, improving over last week.
  • Wheat sales disappointed analysts falling 42 percent from last week.
  •  

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

191

200-500

Corn

1,753

1,000-1,400

Soybeans

857

400-700

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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Graphics: MidWest Plan Service, Iowa State University

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April 23, 2018 | Ken Hellevang,Ph.D., PE, Extension Engineer, Professor

Everyone working around stored grain should understand hazards and proper safety procedures
 

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